ABSTRACT
An anomalous seismic sequence of five small (MW < 3) felt earthquakes occurred between 29 August 2020 and 05 December 2020 around the Victoria Reservoir in the central highlands of Sri Lanka that clearly exceeded the established national background seismic rate. Using seismic waveform template-matching and a newly developed single-station earthquake location method based on travel-time back-projection, we detected an additional co-located 23 microseismic events, of which 18 occurred within the same period as the felt events. This hitherto undetected seismic swarm defines a seismogenic zone beneath the western flank of the reservoir between 1.5 and 3 km depths. The reservoir-induced peak stresses, resolved on E-W striking faults, predicted from the poroelastic theory that include both drained and undrained crustal responses are ~ 15 kPa in an area overlapping the seismogenic zone, which, together with the physical and spatio-temporal characteristics of the seismic swarm, establish a causal link between reservoir-induced stresses and the earthquake swarm with implications to seismic hazard. This is the first record of induced seismicity in Sri Lanka. The newly developed efficient computational workflows with minimal operational costs described in our study provide a blueprint for monitoring reservoir-induced seismicity in developing countries with severe resource limitations.
ABSTRACT
Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.
