ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As a result of the road traffic accidents 1.25 mln. of working-age people die each year on the roads. Frequency of the RTA is 11 times higher in our country than in Europe, that influence on demographic and economic situation in the republic. Creation of the math modeling and prediction of traffic mortality rate in Kazakhstan will allow to develop measure on its decrease. METHODS: Short-term dotted prediction of population mortality level of Kazakhstan was used, in particular - methods of regressive analysis. General prognosis throughout the country up to 2021 was made on the basis of data for 1999-2018. The more relevant method for prediction is exponential function taking into account the features of mortality rate level trend. RESULTS: Prediction of traffic fatalities without division into the age-related groups for 2019 is 2132±181 case with a probability 2/3. Expected levels for 2020-2027 cases, for 2021-1927 cases.Annual mortality decrease rate according to the 0-19 age-related at an average is 6.4% among men and 5.8% among women, according to age group as a whole - by 6.2%; from 20 up to 64 age related group - 5.1 % on all population category; older 65 age -group is by 2.2 %, 3.7 % among men, 2.9% among women as a whole. CONCLUSION: In the foreseeable future the number of traffic deaths in Kazakhstan will tend to decrease at a slower pace. Mortality rates due to road traffic accidents among working-age men will be 3 times higher than women in this age group.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The article provides the analysis of death rates in road traffic accidents in Kazakhstan from 2004 to 2010 and explores the use of sanitary aviation. METHODS: Data of fatalities caused by road traffic accidents were collected and analysed. Descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology and biomedical statistics were applied. RESULTS: Totaly 27,003 people died as a result of road traffic accidents in this period. The death rate for the total population due to road traffic accidents was 25.0±2.1(0)/0000. The death rate for men was (38.3±3.2(0)/0000), which was higher (P<0.05) than that for women (12.6±1.1(0)/0000). High death rates in the entire male population were identified among men of 30-39 years old, whereas the highest rates for women were attributed to the groups of 50-59 years old and 70-79 years old. In time dynamics, death rates tended to decrease: the total population (Tdec=-2.4%), men (Tdec=-2.3%) and women (Tdec=-1.4%). When researching territorial relevance, the rates were established as low (to 18.3(0)/0000), average (between 18.3 and 24.0(0)/0000) and high (from 24.0(0)/0000 and above). Thus, the regions with high rates included Akmola region (24.3(0)/0000), Mangistau region (25.9(0)/0000), Zhambyl region (27.3(0)/0000), Almaty region (29.3(0)/0000) and South Kazakhstan region (32.4(0)/0000). CONCLUSION: The identified epidemiological characteristics of the population deaths rates from road traffic accidents should be used in integrated and targeted interventions to enhance prevention of injuries in accidents.
ABSTRACT
Injury prevention is one of the most important issues facing governmental public health programs today. Injuries lead to premature mortality and disability of the population, decrease quality of life, and damage community property. Data demonstrate that 54.1% of domestic (household related) and traffic injuries among the elderly were caused by a general lowering of attention and inadequate caution associated with increased age. This shows the necessity for the development of injury-prevention programs targeting the elderly. Currently, several different types of institutions working in areas such as public health, promotion of healthy lifestyles, social and clinical medicine are engaged in a period of detailed study of the injury status and discussion of strategies to implement injury prevention programs among the elderly. These programs must be oriented toward both the creation of safe injury-free environments and to actively engage the elderly to increase overall physical fitness to increase self-injury protection.
