A hypertension risk score for middle-aged and older adults.

Determining which demographic and medical variables predict the development of hypertension could help clinicians stratify risk in both prehypertensive and nonhypertensive persons. Subject-level data from 2 community-based biracial cohorts were combined to ascertain the relationship between baseline characteristics and incident hypertension. Hypertension, defined as diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, or reported use of medication known to treat hypertension, was assessed prospectively at 3, 6, and 9 years. Internal validation was performed by the split-sample method with a 2:1 ratio for training and testing samples, respectively. A scoring algorithm was developed by converting the multivariable regression coefficients to integer values. Age, level of systolic or diastolic blood pressure, smoking, family history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, high body mass index, female sex, and lack of exercise were associated with the development of hypertension in the training sample. Regression models showed moderate to high capabilities of discrimination between hypertension vs nonhypertension (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.75-0.78) in the testing sample at 3, 6, and 9 years of follow-up. This risk calculator may aide health care providers in guiding discussions with patients about the risk for progression to hypertension.

High prevalence and diversity of kidney dysfunction in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease: the BARI 2D baseline data.

BACKGROUND: We describe baseline renal function and albumin excretion rate in patients enrolled in Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes, a randomized clinical trial comparing the impact of revascularization and medical therapy with medical therapy alone and deferred or no revascularization and the impact of glycemic control with either insulin-providing or insulin-sensitizing drugs, on 5-year mortality. METHODS: Study participants had type 2 diabetes mellitus, documented coronary artery disease, and creatinine <2 mg/dL. Albuminuria status (albumin/creatinine ratio [ACR]) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), using the abbreviated Modified Diet in Renal Disease equation, were determined at baseline. Univariate and multivariate relationships between baseline clinical characteristics and the presence of albuminuria and reduced eGFR rate were estimated. RESULTS: Two thousand one hundred forty-six subjects were included in the analysis. Forty-three percent of the cohort had evidence of kidney dysfunction at baseline: 23% had an eGFR > or =60 mL/min/1.73 m with either microalbuminuria ( >30 ACR; 17%) or macroalbuminuria (>300 ACR; 6%). Twenty-one percent had a reduced eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m; 52% with reduced eGFR had no albuminuria; 28% had microalbuminuria, and 20% had macroalbuminuria. Race, smoking status, duration of diabetes, hypertension, hemoglobin A1c, triglycerides, vascular disease, abnormal ejection fraction, and reduced eGFR were associated with greater albuminuria. Age, sex, duration of diabetes, ACR, hemoglobin A1c, high density lipoprotein, and number of hypertensive medications were associated with reduced eGFR. CONCLUSION: Kidney dysfunction is common in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease; Albuminuria was present in 33%. Reduced eGFR was present in 21%, and half the patients with reduced eGFR had no evidence of albuminuria.

Screening for kidney disease in vascular patients: SCreening for Occult REnal Disease (SCORED) experience.

BACKGROUND: SCreening for Occult REnal Disease (SCORED) is a novel screening guideline recently developed to identify individuals with a high likelihood of having prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD). This simple scoring system, developed from general US representative samples and independently validated, was shown to outperform current clinical practice guidelines. Recently, CKD screening in individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been emphasized. We therefore evaluated the SCORED model in CVD patients in order to better understand the implications of CKD screening in this population. METHODS: Two clinical trials that enrolled patients with heart attack (N = 2481) or stroke (N = 3680) were combined to create our sample. The performance of the SCORED guideline was evaluated by standard diagnostic measures. Correlations among various risk scores and their predictive abilities for recurrent CVD were ascertained. RESULTS: For heart attack and stroke patients, respectively, the SCORED guideline yielded sensitivity of 94 and 97%, specificity of 27 and 11%, positive predictive value of 32 and 30%, negative predictive value of 93 and 89%, with AUC of 0.75 and 0.68. SCORED was strongly correlated with other risk scores and exhibited a similar performance in the prediction of recurrent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: The higher risk of CKD in CVD patients with high SCORED values is demonstrated. This simple education and screening tool may help promote awareness of CKD in CVD patients, in addition to general populations, and assess the CKD risk and its relationship with recurrent CVD.

A simple algorithm to predict incident kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD), there are no algorithms (to our knowledge) to quantify the effect of concurrent risk factors on the development of incident disease. METHODS: A combined cohort (N = 14 155) of 2 community-based studies, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Cardiovascular Health Study, was formed among men and women 45 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) exceeding 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline. The primary outcome was the development of a GFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) during a follow-up period of up to 9 years. Three prediction algorithms derived from the development data set were evaluated in the validation data set. RESULTS: The 3 prediction algorithms were continuous and categorical best-fitting models with 10 predictors and a simplified categorical model with 8 predictors. All showed discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in a range of 0.69 to 0.70. In the simplified model, age, anemia, female sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and history of congestive heart failure or cardiovascular disease were associated with the development of a GFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A numeric score of at least 3 using the simplified algorithm captured approximately 70% of incident cases (sensitivity) and accurately predicted a 17% risk of developing CKD (positive predictive value). CONCLUSIONS: An algorithm containing commonly understood variables helps to stratify middle-aged and older individuals at high risk for future CKD. The model can be used to guide population-level prevention efforts and to initiate discussions between practitioners and patients about risk for kidney disease.