ABSTRACT
Introduction: Out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a common problem. Rates of survival are low and a proportion of survivors are left with an unfavourable neurological outcome. Four models have been developed to predict risk of unfavourable outcome at the time of critical care admission - the Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosis (CAHP), MIRACLE2, Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA), and Targeted Temperature Management (TTM) models. This evaluation evaluates the performance of these four models in a United Kingdom population and provides comparison to performance of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score. Methods: A retrospective evaluation of the performance of the models was conducted over a 43-month period in 414 adult, non-pregnant patients presenting consecutively following non-traumatic OHCA to the five units in our regional critical care network. Scores were generated for each model for where patients had complete data (CAHP = 347, MIRACLE2 = 375, OHCA = 356, TTM = 385). Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) outcome was calculated for each patient at last documented follow up and an unfavourable outcome defined as CPC ⩾ 3. Performance for discrimination of unfavourable outcome was tested by generating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for each model and comparing the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Best performance for discrimination of unfavourable outcome was demonstrated by the high risk group of the CAHP score with an AUC of 0.87 [95% CI 0.83-0.91], specificity of 97.1% [95% CI 93.8-100] and positive predictive value (PPV) of 96.3% [95% CI 92.2-100]. The high risk group of the MIRACLE2 model, which is significantly easier to calculate, had an AUC of 0.81 [95% CI 0.76-0.86], specificity of 92.3% [95% CI 87.2-97.4] and PPV of 95.2% [95% CI 91.9-98.4]. Conclusion: The CAHP, MIRACLE2, OHCA and TTM scores all perform comparably in a UK population to the original development and validation cohorts. All four scores outperform APACHE-II in a population of patients resuscitated from OHCA. CAHP and TTM perform best but are more complex to calculate than MIRACLE2, which displays inferior performance.
ABSTRACT
Melatonin is a physiological hormone involved in sleep timing and is currently used exogenously in the treatment of primary and secondary sleep disorders with empirical evidence of efficacy, but very little evidence from randomised, controlled studies. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess the evidence base for the therapeutic effects of exogenous melatonin in treating primary sleep disorders. An electronic literature review search of MEDLINE (1950-present) Embase (1980- present), PsycINFO (1987- present), and Scopus (1990- present), along with a hand-searching of key journals was performed in July 2013 and then again in May 2015. This identified all studies that compared the effect of exogenous melatonin and placebo in patients with primary insomnia, delayed sleep phase syndrome, non 24-h sleep wake syndrome in people who are blind, and rapid eye movement-behaviour disorder. Meta-analyses were performed to determine the magnitude of effect in studies of melatonin in improving sleep. A total of 5030 studies were identified; of these citations, 12 were included for review based on the inclusion criteria of being: double or single-blind, randomised and controlled. Results from the meta-analyses showed the most convincing evidence for exogenous melatonin use was in reducing sleep onset latency in primary insomnia (p = 0.002), delayed sleep phase syndrome (p < 0.0001), and regulating the sleep-wake patterns in blind patients compared with placebo. These findings highlight the potential importance of melatonin in treating certain first degree sleep disorders. The development of large-scale, randomised, controlled trials is recommended to provide further evidence for therapeutic use of melatonin in a variety of sleep difficulties.
