Do Males Form Social Associations Based on Sexual Attractiveness in a Fission-Fusion Fish Society?

Recent theory predicts that males should choose social environments that maximize their relative attractiveness to females by preferentially associating with less attractive rivals, so as to enhance their mating success. Using the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a highly social species, we tested for non-random social associations among males in mixed-sex groups based on two phenotypic traits (body length and coloration) that predict relative sexual attractiveness to females and sexual (sperm) competitiveness. Based on a well-replicated laboratory dichotomous-choice test of social group preference, we could not reject the null hypothesis that focal males chose randomly between a mixed-sex group that comprised a female and a rival male that was less sexually attractive than themselves and another mixed-sex group containing a sexually more attractive male. The same conclusion was reached when females were absent from the two groups. As might be expected from these laboratory findings, free-ranging males in the field were not assorted by either body length or colour in mixed-sex shoals. The apparent lack of an evolved and expressed preference in wild male guppies from our study population to form social associations with other males based on their relative sexual attractiveness and competitiveness might be due to the fission-fusion dynamics of guppy shoals in nature. Such social dynamics likely places constraints on the formation of stable phenotype-based social associations among males. This possibility is supported by a simulation model which assumes group departure rules based on relative body size and coloration in males.

A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

Covariation and repeatability of male mating effort and mating preferences in a promiscuous fish.

Although mate choice by males does occur in nature, our understanding of its importance in driving evolutionary change remains limited compared with that for female mate choice. Recent theoretical models have shown that the evolution of male mate choice is more likely when individual variation in male mating effort and mating preferences exist and positively covary within populations. However, relatively little is known about the nature of such variation and its maintenance within natural populations. Here, using the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata) as a model study system, we report that mating effort and mating preferences in males, based on female body length (a strong correlate of fecundity), positively covary and are significantly variable among subjects. Individual males are thus consistent, but not unanimous, in their mate choice. Both individual mating effort (including courtship effort) and mating preference were significantly repeatable. These novel findings support the assumptions and predictions of recent evolutionary models of male mate choice, and are consistent with the presence of additive genetic variation for male mate choice based on female size in our study population and thus with the opportunity for selection and further evolution of large female body size through male mate choice.

Do female fruit flies (Drosophila serrata) copy the mate choice of others?

Female mate-choice copying is a social learning phenomenon whereby a female's observation of a successful sexual interaction between a male and another female increases her likelihood of subsequently preferring that male. Although mate-choice copying has been documented in several vertebrate species, to our knowledge it has not yet been investigated in insects. Here, we investigated whether female mate-choice copying occurs in the fruit fly Drosophila serrata, a model system for the study of mate preferences and the sexual selection they generate. We used two complementary experiments in which focal females were given a choice between two males that differed in either their apparent (as determined visually by the focal female) or actual recent mating success. Mate-choice copying was evaluated by testing whether focal females mated more frequently with the 'preferred' male as opposed to the other male. In both experiments, however, we found no evidence for mate-choice copying. We discuss possible reasons for the apparent absence of mate-choice copying in this species.

Heavy rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks: the Walkerton example.

Recent research indicates that excessive rainfall has been a significant contributor to historical waterborne disease outbreaks. The Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, provided an analysis and testimony to the Walkerton Inquiry on the excessive rainfall events, including an assessment of the historical significance and expected return periods of the rainfall amounts. While the onset of the majority of the Walkerton, Ontario, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter outbreak occurred several days after a heavy rainfall on May 12, the accumulated 5-d rainfall amounts from 8-12 May were particularly significant. These 5-d accumulations could, on average, only be expected once every 60 yr or more in Walkerton and once every 100 yr or so in the heaviest rainfall area to the south of Walkerton. The significant link between excess rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks, in conjunction with other multiple risk factors, indicates that meteorological and climatological conditions need to be considered by water managers, public health officials, and private citizens as a significant risk factor for water contamination. A system to identify and project the impacts of such challenging or extreme weather conditions on water supply systems could be developed using a combination of weather/climate monitoring information and weather prediction or quantitative precipitation forecast information. The use of weather monitoring and forecast information or a "wellhead alert system" could alert water system and water supply managers on the potential response of their systems to challenging weather conditions and additional requirements to protect health. Similar approaches have recently been used by beach managers in parts of the United States to predict day-to-day water quality for beach advisories.