Accuracy and reproducibility of conclusions by forensic bloodstain pattern analysts.

Although the analysis of bloodstain pattern evidence left at crime scenes relies on the expert opinions of bloodstain pattern analysts, the accuracy and reproducibility of these conclusions have never been rigorously evaluated at a large scale. We investigated conclusions made by 75 practicing bloodstain pattern analysts on 192 bloodstain patterns selected to be broadly representative of operational casework, resulting in 33,005 responses to prompts and 1760 short text responses. Our results show that conclusions were often erroneous and often contradicted other analysts. On samples with known causes, 11.2% of responses were erroneous. The results show limited reproducibility of conclusions: 7.8% of responses contradicted other analysts. The disagreements with respect to the meaning and usage of BPA terminology and classifications suggest a need for improved standards. Both semantic differences and contradictory interpretations contributed to errors and disagreements, which could have serious implications if they occurred in casework.

Why do latent fingerprint examiners differ in their conclusions?

Forensic latent print examiners usually but do not always reproduce each other's conclusions. Using data from tests of experts conducting fingerprint comparisons, we show the extent to which differing conclusions can be explained in terms of the images, and in terms of the examiners. Some images are particularly prone to disagreements or erroneous conclusions; the highest and lowest quality images generally result in unanimous conclusions. The variability among examiners can be seen as the effect of implicit individual decision thresholds, which we demonstrate are measurable and differ substantially among examiners; this variation may reflect differences in skill, risk tolerance, or bias. Much of the remaining variability relates to inconsistency of the examiners themselves: borderline conclusions (i.e., close to individual decision thresholds) often were not repeated by the examiners themselves, and tended to be completed more slowly and rated difficult. A few examiners have significantly higher error rates than most: aggregate error rates of many examiners are not necessarily representative of individual examiners. The use of a three-level conclusion scale does not precisely represent the underlying agreements and disagreements among examiners. We propose a new method of quantifying examiner skill that would be appropriate for use in proficiency tests. These findings are operationally relevant to staffing, quality assurance, and disagreements among experts in court.

Differential analysis of very small particles (VSP) from the contact surfaces and recessed areas of footwear.

Prior work has shown that the contact surfaces of footwear rapidly lose very small particles (VSP) when walking on dry soil. Other research, with more general sampling from shoe soles, has shown that particles can persist much longer. Given rapid losses from contact surfaces, we hypothesize that non-contact, recessed areas of footwear retain particles from prior exposures. Here we conduct differential analysis of VSP recovered separately from contact and recessed surfaces, following a controlled series of environmental exposures. Work boots and tennis shoes were exposed by walking distances of 250 m, sequentially, in three environmental sites. VSP were harvested separately from contact and recessed surfaces using a moist swabbing procedure. VSP were analyzed by microscopy and the proportions attributable to each site were determined using a newly developed statistical model. The principal findings are (1) contact surfaces of footwear are dominated by VSP attributable to the most recent site of exposure, (2) recessed surfaces of footwear retain VSP from prior exposures, (3) sole type appears to be a source of major differences in the amount of VSP from prior exposures remaining in recessed areas, and (4) when VSP attributable to prior exposures are found, there is no clear trend for dominance between earlier exposures. The significance of these findings is considerable. In cases where the last site visited is of interest, VSP from contact surfaces of footwear will give a nearly pure sample of that site. In cases where prior sites visited are of interest, the VSP from the contact surfaces can be used as a background signal, providing a means for differential analysis of VSP mixtures found in the recessed areas of the sole. The strong influence of shoe sole type on the retention of VSP from prior exposures indicates that efforts to explore the rates of VSP loss from recessed areas will need to take characteristics of the sole type into account. The absence of a clear trend for dominance between earlier exposures suggests that once traces are lodged within the recessed areas of footwear soles they can be retained for long periods of time. These findings support prior research on the retention of particles on footwear that shows periods of long retention following rapid initial losses of trace materials. The differential analysis of VSP is a significant contribution to the methods available for the deconvolution of particle mixtures into fractions that are characteristic of their contributing sources.

Rates of loss and replacement of very small particles (VSP) on the contact surfaces of footwear during successive exposures.

It has previously been shown that a walk of 250 m (approximately 175 steps/shoe) in a new environment is sufficient to remove and replace particles present on the contact surfaces of footwear. However, it is unknown how quickly this replacement occurs. This paper describes experiments measuring how quickly (in terms of steps) this loss and replacement of VSP occurs. Three environmental exposure sites were chosen to have different, characteristic particle types (soil minerals). Footwear of two types (work boots and tennis shoes) were tested, accumulating particles by walking 250 m in one site, followed by walking a designated number of steps (per shoe) in a second site. Very small particles (VSP) were harvested from contact surfaces of the footwear (those surfaces in direct contact with the ground when walking) using a moist swabbing procedure. The resulting numbers and types of VSP were determined using forensic microscopy and the proportions of VSP attributable to the first and second site were determined by particle combination analysis using a latent Dirichlet allocation model. The principal findings from this study are (1) that the contact surfaces of footwear are dominated by VSP attributable to the most recent site of exposure, (2) that walking in a new location rapidly removes and replaces VSP from the contact surfaces of footwear, (3) major replacement occurs in 5 to 10 steps and nearly complete replacement occurs by 25 steps, (4) the character of the loading site may influence the initial rate of loss and replacement of VSP (during the first five steps), and (5) overall, the loss and replacement of VSP on footwear in these experiments can be reasonably described by the relationship 1/(Steps + 2.68). The significance of these findings is considerable. In cases where the last site visited is of interest, VSP from contact surfaces of footwear will give a nearly pure sample of that site. In cases where prior sites visited are of interest, the VSP from the contact surfaces can be used as a background signal, providing a necessary beginning for efforts to resolve mixtures of VSP arising from different exposures. The usefulness of VSP on footwear evidence depends on developing this ability so that a reliable, relevant evidentiary "signal" can be separated from background noise (or signals from other exposures).