ABSTRACT
Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America are obtained using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 40 km resolution, driven by the large-scale forcing from the global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies. The objective of this work is to evaluate these regional reforecasts. The dataset is comprised of four-month seasonal forecasts performed on a monthly basis between 2001 and 2010. An ensemble of five members is constructed from five slightly different initial conditions to partially reduce the uncertainty in the seasonal forecasts. The seasonal mean precipitation and 2-meter temperature forecasts are compared with the observations. The comparison shows that, in general, forecasted precipitation is underestimated in the central part of the continent in the austral summer, whereas the forecasted 2 meter temperature is underestimated in most parts of the continent and throughout the year. Skill scores show higher skill in the northern part of the continent and lower skill in the southern part of the continent, but mixed skill signs are seen in the central part of the continent. During the El Niño and La Niña seasons, the forecast skill scores clearly increase. The downscaling of the Eta model seasonal forecasts provides added value over the driver global model forecasts, especially during rainy periods.
Subject(s)
Climate , Weather , Rain , Seasons , South AmericaABSTRACT
UNLABELLED: A few studies have performed to evaluate the temperature variation influences over on the stroke rates in Brazil. METHOD: 176 medical records of inpatients were analyzed after having had a stroke between 2004 and 2006 at Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein. The temperature preceding the occurrence of the symptoms was recorded, as well as the temperature 6, 12 and 24 hours before the symptoms in 6 different weather substations, closest to their houses in São Paulo. RESULTS: Strokes occurred more frequently after a variation of 3 C between 6 and 24 hours before the symptoms. There were most hospitalizations between 23-24 C. CONCLUSION: Incidence of stroke on these patients was increased after a variation of 3 masculine Celsius within 24 hours before the ictus. The temperature variations could be an important factor in the occurrence of strokes in this population.
Subject(s)
Seasons , Stroke/epidemiology , Temperature , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Brazil/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Retrospective Studies , Stroke/etiology , Time FactorsABSTRACT
A few studies have performed to evaluate the temperature variation influences over on the stroke rates in Brazil. METHOD: 176 medical records of inpatients were analyzed after having had a stroke between 2004 and 2006 at Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein. The temperature preceding the occurrence of the symptoms was recorded, as well as the temperature 6, 12 and 24 hours before the symptoms in 6 different weather substations, closest to their houses in São Paulo. RESULTS: Strokes occurred more frequently after a variation of 3ºC between 6 and 24 hours before the symptoms. There were most hospitalizations between 23-24ºC. CONCLUSION: Incidence of stroke on these patients was increased after a variation of 3º Celsius within 24 hours before the ictus. The temperature variations could be an important factor in the occurrence of strokes in this population.
Poucos trabalhos têm estudado a variação sazonal e de temperatura em acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) no Brasil. MÉTODO: Foram analisados 176 registros de pacientes com AVC no Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein entre 2004 e 2006. Foram anotadas as temperaturas ambientes do início dos sintomas, bem como as temperaturas de 6, 12 e 24 horas antes dos sintomas, em 6 diferentes subestações metereológicas mais próximas da casa do paciente em São Paulo. RESULTADOS: Houve aumento da incidência do AVC com a variação de 3ºC entre 6 e 24 horas antes do início dos sintomas. Houve um pico de internação entre 23-24ºC. CONCLUSÃO: A variação de temperatura de 3ºC nas 24 horas que antecederam o início dos sintomas pode ter sido um fator importante na ocorrência do AVC.
Subject(s)
Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Humans , Middle Aged , Seasons , Stroke/epidemiology , Temperature , Brazil/epidemiology , Incidence , Prevalence , Retrospective Studies , Stroke/etiology , Time FactorsABSTRACT
The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution of reported hantavirus cases in São Paulo State, Brazil (n = 80), from 1993 to 2005 and identify local climatic patterns during this period. Kernel point estimation of density was used to show the highest concentrations in Ribeirão Preto, São Carlos, Franca, Tupi Paulista, and Greater São Paulo. Increase in the number of cases during this period suggests disease dissemination even when considering increased diagnostic capacity and higher sensitivity of the health services. There was a marked seasonal variation in hantavirus in the cerrado (savannah) areas; the common pattern is a higher incidence in drier months as compared to mean levels in the last 40 years. These coincide with periods of high rodent food source levels in grains, sugarcane, and other crops. Harvesting and storing grains increases human exposure to rodents. Climatic indicators together with ecological variables can be local transmission risk markers and should receive more attention in epidemiological monitoring and control of the disease.
Subject(s)
Climate , Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome/epidemiology , Population Density , Brazil/epidemiology , Environment , Humans , Rain , Risk Factors , Space-Time ClusteringABSTRACT
O objetivo deste trabalho foi investigar a distribuição espacial dos casos notificados de hantavirose (n = 80) no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, de 1993 a 2005, e identificar os padrões climáticos locais nos anos de registro da doença. Foi utilizado o estimador de densidade de pontos de kernel que apontou maior concentração nas regiões de Ribeirão Preto, São Carlos, Franca, Tupi Paulista e Grande São Paulo. O aumento do número de casos no período sugere disseminação da doença, embora se considere o aumento da capacidade diagnóstica e maior sensibilidade do sistema de saúde. Registrou-se marcada sazonalidade da hantavirose nas áreas de cerrado, com padrão comum, isto é, maior incidência em meses com baixa pluviosidade, comparados com médias dos últimos quarenta anos. Esses períodos coincidem com épocas de maior disponibilidade de alimentos a roedores em cultura de grãos, cana e outros. A colheita e armazenamento desses grãos aumentam a exposição de populações humanas aos roedores. Indicadores climáticos em conjunto com variáveis ecológicas podem compor marcadores de risco de transmissão local a serem valorizados nas ações de vigilância epidemiológica e controle da doença.
The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution of reported hantavirus cases in São Paulo State, Brazil (n = 80), from 1993 to 2005 and identify local climatic patterns during this period. Kernel point estimation of density was used to show the highest concentrations in Ribeirão Preto, São Carlos, Franca, Tupi Paulista, and Greater São Paulo. Increase in the number of cases during this period suggests disease dissemination even when considering increased diagnostic capacity and higher sensitivity of the health services. There was a marked seasonal variation in hantavirus in the cerrado (savannah) areas; the common pattern is a higher incidence in drier months as compared to mean levels in the last 40 years. These coincide with periods of high rodent food source levels in grains, sugarcane, and other crops. Harvesting and storing grains increases human exposure to rodents. Climatic indicators together with ecological variables can be local transmission risk markers and should receive more attention in epidemiological monitoring and control of the disease.
