Real-time prediction of patient disposition and the impact of reporter confidence on mid-level triage accuracies: an observational study in Israel.

AIM: The emergency department (ED) is the first port-of-call for most patients receiving hospital care and as such acts as a gatekeeper to the wards, directing patient flow through the hospital. ED overcrowding is a well-researched field and negatively affects patient outcome, staff well-being and hospital reputation. An accurate, real-time model capable of predicting ED overcrowding has obvious merit in a world becoming increasingly computational, although the complicated dynamics of the department have hindered international efforts to design such a model. Triage nurses' assessments have been shown to be accurate predictors of patient disposition and could, therefore, be useful input for overcrowding and patient flow models. METHODS: In this study, we assess the prediction capabilities of triage nurses in a level 1 urban hospital in central Israeli. ED settings included both acute and ambulatory wings. Nurses were asked to predict admission or discharge for each patient over a 3-month period as well as exact admission destination. Prediction confidence was used as an optimisation variable. RESULT: Triage nurses accurately predicted whether the patient would be admitted or discharged in 77% of patients in the acute wing, rising to 88% when their prediction certainty was high. Accuracies were higher still for patients in the ambulatory wing. In particular, negative predictive values for admission were highly accurate at 90%, irrespective of area or certainty levels. CONCLUSION: Nurses prediction of disposition should be considered for input for real-time ED models.

Do automatic push notifications improve patient flow in the emergency department? analysis of an ED in a large medical center in Israel.

INTRODUCTION: Congestion in emergency departments [ED] is a significant challenge worldwide. Any delay in the timely and immediate medical care provided in the ED can affect patient morbidity and mortality. Our research analyzed the use of an innovative platform to improve patient navigation in the ED, as well as provide updated information about their care. Our hope is that this can improve ED efficiency and improve overall patient care. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of our study was to determine whether the use of an automatic push notification system can shorten 'length of stay' (LOS) in the ED, improve patient flow, and decrease ED patient load. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study utilizing data extrapolated from the electronic medical records of 2972 patients who visited the walk-in ED of a large-scale central hospital in Israel from January 17, 2021 to March 15, 2021. During this period, the automatic push text notification system was activated on a week-on week-off basis. We compared data from our experimental group with the control group. RESULTS: The results of this study indicate that the use of an automatic push notification system had a minimal impact on specific parameters of ED patient flow. Apart from a few significant reductions of specific timed-intervals during patients' ED visit, the majority of results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: This study concluded that the anticipated benefits of a push text notification system in the ED do not, at this stage, justify the system's additional cost. We recommend a follow-up study to further investigate other possible benefits.