Association between methylmercury exposure from fish consumption and child development at five and a half years of age in the Seychelles Child Development Study: an evaluation of nonlinear relationships.

Studies to date of the developmental effects of pre- and postnatal methylmercury exposure from fish consumption in the Seychelles Islands, using linear regression models for analysis, have not shown adverse effects on neurodevelopmental test scores. In this study we evaluated whether nonlinear effects of methylmercury exposure were present, using scores on six tests administered to cohort children in the Seychelles Child Development Study at 66 months of age. Prenatal exposure was determined by measuring mercury in a segment of maternal scalp hair representing growth during pregnancy. Postnatal exposure was measured in a segment of the child's hair taken at 66-months of age. Generalized additive models (GAMs), which make no assumptions about the functional form of the relationship between exposure and test score, were used in the analysis. GAMs similar to the original linear regression models were used to reanalyze the six primary developmental endpoints from the 66-month test battery. Small nonlinearities were identified in the relationships between prenatal exposure and the Preschool Language Scale (PLS) Total score and Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) and between postnatal exposure and the McCarthy General Cognitive Index (GCI) test scores. The effects are best described graphically but can be summarized by computing the change in the predicted test score from 0 to either 10 or 15 ppm and then above this point. For the PLS the trend involved a decline of 0.8 points between 0 and 10 ppm followed by an increase (representing improvement) of 1.3 points above 10 ppm. For the CBCL there was an increase of 1 point from 0 to 15 ppm, and then a decline (improvement) of 4 points above 15 ppm. The GCI increased by 1.8 points through 10 ppm and then declined 3.2 points (representing worse performance) above 10 ppm. These results are not entirely consistent. Two of the trends involve what appear to be beneficial effects of prenatal exposure. The one possibly adverse trend involves postnatal exposure. In every case the trend changes direction, so that an effect in one direction is followed by an effect in the opposite direction. Because of the descriptive nature of GAMs it is difficult to provide a precise level of statistical significance for the estimated trends. Certainly above 10 ppm there is less data and trends above this level are estimated less precisely. Overall there was no clear evidence for consistent (across the entire range of exposure levels) adverse effects of exposure on the six developmental outcomes. Further nonlinear modeling of these data may be appropriate, but there is also the risk of fitting complex models without a clear biological rationale.

Underlying and multiple cause mortality in a cohort of workers exposed to aromatic amines.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has previously conducted studies of bladder cancer incidence and mortality at a synthetic dye plant that manufactured beta-naphthylamine from 1940 through 1979. This report extends the period of mortality follow-up 13 years and analyzes both underlying and nonunderlying causes of death. METHODS: The vital status of each cohort member, as of December 31, 1992, was determined by using the National Death Index and information from the Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Postal Service. The NIOSH life table analysis system (LTAS) was used to generate person-year-at-risk and the expected numbers of death for 92 categories of death, using several referent rates (U.S. underlying, Georgia underlying, U.S. multiple cause). RESULTS: There were three bladder cancer deaths listed as underlying cause, yielding a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) based on U.S. rates of 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5, 7.0) and a total of eight bladder cancers listed anywhere on the death certificates (SMR based on multiple cause referent rates = 5.6; 95% CI = 2.4, 11.1). Mortality from esophageal cancer, which had been significantly elevated in the previous study, was no longer significantly elevated (SMR = 2.0; 95% CI = 0.8, 4.1). Mortality from all causes was significantly higher than expected (SMR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.3, 1.6). CONCLUSIONS: The elevated bladder cancer risk in this cohort was detected by the multiple cause, but not the underlying cause, analysis. Elevated mortality from other causes of death, especially among short-term workers, may be related to regional and lifestyle factors.

Semiparametric modeling of age at achieving developmental milestones after prenatal exposure to methylmercury in the Seychelles child development study.

Controversy exists concerning the fetal risk associated with exposure to low-dose methylmercury from maternal fish consumption. Previous studies of the effects of acute prenatal mercury exposure identified delays in achieving developmental milestones among exposed children. This led to public health concern that prenatal low-dose exposure from fish consumption could adversely affect the fetus. We evaluated the effects of prenatal methylmercury exposure (through maternal fish consumption) on the age that children walked and first said words in the main study cohort of the Seychelles Child Development Study. We used semiparametric generalized additive models to identify nonlinearities in the relationships between prenatal exposure and developmental outcomes, after adjusting for covariates, and to evaluate their importance. Very slight delays (<1 day) in walking were seen as mercury levels increased from 0 to 7 ppm, but this effect did not persist at the higher exposure levels represented by the cohort, making it difficult to conclude that a cause and effect relationship existed at the exposure levels seen in this cohort. There was no evidence for any association between prenatal exposure and age at talking.

Effects of prenatal methylmercury exposure from a high fish diet on developmental milestones in the Seychelles Child Development Study.

Mercury is widespread in the environment and exists in several physical and chemical forms. Prenatal exposure to methylmercury disrupts brain development. The most common mode of prenatal methylmercury exposure is maternal fish consumption. Studies of human prenatal exposure in Iraq following maternal ingestion of methylmercury treated grain suggested that maternal hair mercury concentrations above 10 ppm may be related to delayed developmental milestones and neurological abnormalities. This level of exposure can be achieved by frequent consumption of fish. The Seychelles Child Development Study analyzed developmental milestones similar to those determined in Iraq in a large controlled, prospective study of children exposed prenatally to methylmercury when their mothers ate fish. As part of this ongoing study, cohort children were evaluated at 6.5, 19, 29, and 66 months of age. At 19 months care-givers were asked at what age the child walked (n=720 out of 738) and talked (n=680). Prenatal mercury exposure was determined by atomic absorption analysis of maternal hair segments corresponding to hair growth during the pregnancy. The median mercury level in maternal hair was 5.8 ppm with a range of 0.5-26.7 ppm. The mean age (in months) at walking was 10.7 (SD = 1.9) for females and 10.6 (SD = 2.0) for males. The mean age at talking (in months) was 10.5 (SD = 2.6) for females, and 11.0 (SD = 2.9) for males. After adjusting for covariates and statistical outliers, no association was found between the age at which Seychellois children walked or talked and prenatal exposure to mercury. Normal ages at achievement of the developmental milestones walking and talking were found in Seychellois toddlers following prenatal exposure to methylmercury from a maternal fish diet. These results do not support the lowest effect levels in young children following prenatal methylmercury exposure predicted by the dose response analysis of the Iraq data. More detailed studies in older children are needed to determine if there are adverse effects in fish eating populations.