Prognosis of colorectal cancer in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, the only oncology center in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in males and the second in females worldwide. According to the Addis Ababa cancer registry, it is the first in male and fourth in female in Ethiopia. However, there have not been studies on prognostic factors and survival of colorectal cancer. Hence, this study aimed to estimate survival time and identify prognostic factors. METHODS: In this institution based retrospective study, medical records review of 422 colorectal cancer patients and telephone interview was used as sources of data. Survival time was estimated using Kaplan-Meier estimator. Prognostic factors were identified using the multivariable Cox regression model. RESULTS: Patients diagnosed with rectal cancer had 76% (HR: 1.761, 95% CI: 1.173-2.644) increased risk of dying compared to colon cancer patients. Node positive patients were 3.146 (95% CI: 1.626-6.078) times likely to die compared to node-negative and metastatic cancer were 4.221 (95% CI: 2.788-6.392) times likely to die compared to non-metastatic patients. Receiving adjuvant therapy reduced the risk of death by 36.1% (HR: 0.639 (95% CI: 0.418-0.977)) compared to patients who had an only surgical resection. The median survival time was 39 months and the overall five years survival rate was 33%. CONCLUSIONS: The overall survival rate was low and a majority of the patients were young at presentation. Patient's survival is largely influenced by the advanced cancer stage at presentation and delays in the administration of adjuvant therapy. Receiving adjuvant therapy was among the good prognostic factors.

Exploring the association between childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors in Southwestern Ethiopia.

Childhood diarrhea has been one of the major public health concerns in countries that have limited resources like Ethiopia. Understanding the association between childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors would contribute to safeguard children from adverse health effects through early warning mechanisms. Thus, this study aimed at exploring the association between childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors to enable reducing health risks. A retrospective study design was used to explore the association between meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in southwestern Ethiopia from 2010 to 2017. Mann Kendall trend test and Spearman's correlation were computed to test the association of childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors. The space-time permutation model was used to identify the risky periods, seasons with most likely clusters, and high childhood diarrhea. Similarly, a negative binomial regression model was fitted to determine the predictability of meteorological factors for childhood diarrhea. The highest childhood diarrhea morbidity was 92.60 per 1000 per under five children. The risk of childhood diarrhea increased by 16.66% (RR: 1.1666; 95% CI: 1.164-1.168) per increase in 1 °C temperature. Furthermore, rainfall was found to be a significant risk factor of childhood diarrhea, with 0.16% (RR: 1.00167; 95% CI: 1.001306-1.001928) per 1 mm increase in rainfall. The temperature was positively correlated with the occurrence of childhood diarrhea. But the association with rainfall showed spatial variability. The space-time permutation model revealed that dry season was found to be a high-risk period with excess childhood diarrhea. The results showed that the observed association between meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea could be used as evidence for early warning systems for the prevention of childhood diarrhea.

Spatiotemporal and hotspot detection of U5-children diarrhea in resource-limited areas of Ethiopia.

Under-five children (U5-children) diarrhea is a significant public health threat, where the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported it as the second leading cause of children's death worldwide. Nearly 1.7 billion cases occur annually with varied temporal and spatial factors. Identification of the spatiotemporal pattern and hotspot areas of U5-children diarrhea can assist targeted intervention and provide an early warning for more effective response measures. This study aimed at examining spatiotemporal variability along with the detection of hotspot areas for U5-children diarrhea in the Bench Maji Zone of southwestern Ethiopia, where resources are limited and cultural heterogeneity is highest. Retrospective longitudinal data of ten years of diarrhea records from January 2008 to December 2017 were used to identify hotspot areas. The incidence rate per 1,000 per year among children was calculated along with seasonal patterns of cases. The spatiotemporal analysis was made using SaTScan version 9.4, while spatial autocorrelations and hotspot identification were generated using ArcGIS 10.5 software. A total of 90,716 U5-children diarrhea cases were reported with an annual incidence rate of 36.1 per 1,000 U5-children, indicating a relative risk (RR) of 1.6 and a log-likelihood ratio (LLR) of 1,347.32 (p < 0.001). The highest incidence of diarrhea illness was recorded during the dry season and showed incidence rate increment from October to February. The risky clusters (RR > 1) were in the districts of Bero, Maji, Surma, Minit Shasha, Guraferda, Mizan Aman Town, and Sheko with annual cases of 127.93, 68.5, 65.12, 55.03, 55.67, 54.14 and 44.97 per 1,000, respectively. The lowest annual cases reported were in the four districts of Shay Bench, South Bench, North Bench, and Minit Goldiya, where RR was less than a unit. Six most likely clusters (Bero, Minit Shasha, Surma, Guraferda, South Bench, and Maji) and one lower RR area (North Bench) were hotspot districts. The U5-children's diarrhea in the study area showed an overall increasing trend during the dry seasons with non-random distribution over space and time. The data recorded during ten years and analyzed with the proper statistical tools helped to identify the hotspot areas with risky seasons where diarrhea could increase.

Individual and community-level risk factors in under-five children diarrhea among agro-ecological zones in southwestern Ethiopia.

Under-five children diarrhea remains a major public health problem in resource-limited areas, including Ethiopia, due to multiple risk factors. This study aimed to identify individual and community-level risk factors affecting under-five children diarrhea (UFCD) in five districts of the Bench Maji Zone, southwestern Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from February to April 2018. A total of 826 households were recruited from five randomly selected districts using stratified sampling. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify risk factors associated with UFCD. The prevalence of UFCD in the study area was found to be 18.3%. Children less than six months of age are more at risk for diarrhea (95% CI for AOR2.5;1.23-4.90). Most probably initiating supplementary feedings before six months of age is one of the main risk factor for diarrhea (95% CI for AOR 0.65; 0.45-0.98). Similarly, mothers with low educational status (95% CI for AOR 0.30; 0.10-0.84), limited knowledge of mothers' about diarrhea (95% CI for AOR 0.24; 0.15-0.40), absence of hand washing among mothers/caregivers at critical times (95% CI for AOR 4.6; 2.88-7.67), and sharing of the residence with domestic animals (95% CI for AOR 2.87, 1.75-4.67) were the predictors of UFCD at individual-level. Children living in semi pastoral areas (95% CI for AOR 0.22; 0.10-0.50) unvaccinated children for rotavirus prevention (95% CI AOR 5.22, 3.33-8.20), households obtaining water from unimproved sources (95% CI for AOR 2.53; 1.60-4.40), and households with unimproved latrine facilities (95% CI for AOR 0.60; 0.33-0.99) were the risk factors of UFCD at the community-level. The study revealed that UFCD is a critical health concern in southwestern Ethiopia, where integrated intervention approach at individual and community level could help to alleviate the problem. At individual level, behavioral change intervention on handwashing, exclusive breast-feeding before the age of six months, and awareness on diarrhea prevention methods are critical areas of intervention. Likewise, provision of safe and adequate water source combined with household water chlorination, and vaccination for rotavirus are interventions at community that need to be integrated with the individual-level of intervention. This could significantly contribute for the reduction of UFCD in the resource limited areas through intersectoral collaboration of the health and other sectors.

Determinants of adherence to clinic appointments among tuberculosis and HIV co-infected individuals attending care at Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV/AIDS. The growing burden of TB/HIV co-infection continues to strain the healthcare system due to association with long duration of treatment. This is a catalyst for poor adherence to clinic appointments, which results in poor treatment adherence and patient outcome. This study evaluated the factors associated with adherence to clinic appointments among TB/HIV co-infected patients in Johannesburg, South Africa. METHODS: this was a cross-sectional study that involved 10427 patients ≥18 years of age with HIV infection and co-infected with TB. We used a proxy measure "md clinic appointments" to assess adherence, then multivariable logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with adherence. RESULTS: one thousand, five hundred and twenty-eight patients were co-infected with TB, of these, 17.4% attained good adherence. Patients with TB/HIV co-infection who were on treatment for a longer period were less likely to adhere to clinic appointments (AOR: 0.98 95% CI: 0.97, 0.99). CONCLUSION: duration on treatment among TB/HIV co-infected patients is associated with adherence to clinic appointments. It is therefore vital to reinforce public health interventions that would enhance sustained adherence to clinic appointments and mitigate its impact on treatment adherence and patient outcome.

Prevalence of bovine tuberculosis and its associated risk factors in the emerging dairy belts of regional cities in Ethiopia.

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has become an economically important disease in dairy herds found in and around Addis Ababa City and is emerging in regional cities like Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle because of the establishment of dairy farms in the milk sheds of these cities. A cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of BTB and identify associated risk factors was conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. A total of 174 herds comprising of 2,754 dairy cattle in the cities of Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle were tested using the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test. Data on herd structure, animal origin, body condition, housing condition, farm hygiene, management and biosecurity practices were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were used to analyze the herd and animal level risk factors, respectively. The herd prevalence was 22.4% (95% CI: 17-29%) while the animal prevalence was 5.2% (95% CI: 4-6%) at the cut-off >4 mm. The herd prevalence rose to 65.5% (95% CI: 58-72%) and the animal prevalence rose to 9% (95% CI: 8-10%) when the severe interpretation of >2 mm cut-off was applied. The mean within-herd prevalence in positive farms at the cut-off >4 mm was 22.7% (95% CI: 15-31%). At the herd level, the analysis showed that herd size, farm hygiene, feeding condition and biosecurity were significantly associated with BTB status, while new cattle introductions showed only borderline significance and that age of farm, housing condition, farmers' educational status and animal health care practice were not significant. At the animal level, the results showed that age and animal origin were identified as significant predictors for BTB positivity but sex and body condition score were not related to BTB status. Descriptive analysis revealed that herds having 'BTB history' showed slightly higher likelihood of being BTB positive compared to farms having no previous BTB exposure. In conclusion, this study showed relatively lower average prevalence in the emerging dairy regions as compared to the prevalence observed in and around Addis Ababa City, warranting for implementation of control program at this stage to reduce or possibly stop further transmission of BTB.

Progression of HIV Disease Among Patients on ART in Ethiopia: Application of Longitudinal Count Models.

Although the world has been fighting HIV disease in unity and patients are getting antiretroviral therapy treatment, HIV disease continues to be a serious health issue for some parts of the world. A large number of AIDS-related deaths and co-morbidities are registered every year in resource-limited countries like Ethiopia. Most studies that have assessed the progression of the disease have used models that required a continuous response. The main objective of this study was to make use of appropriate statistical models to analyze routinely collected HIV data and identify risk factors associated with the progression of the CD4+ cell count of patients under ART treatment in Debre Markos Referral Hospital, Ethiopia. In this longitudinal retrospective study, routine data of 445 HIV patients registered for ART treatment in the Hospital were used. As overdispersion was detected in the data, and Poisson-Gamma, Poisson-Normal, and Poisson-Gamma-Normal models were applied to account for overdispersion and correlation in the data. The Poisson-Gamma-Normal model with a random intercept was selected as the best model to fit the data. The findings of the study revealed the time on treatment, sex of patients, baseline WHO stage, and baseline CD4+ cell count as significant factors for the progression of the CD4+ cell count.

Practice of code of ethics and associated factors among medical doctors in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: In the health sector, questions are being raised about the possible threats to the accepted principles of ethics such as autonomy, beneficence, non malfeasance and justice in the delivery of health care. There is limited information in Ethiopia regarding to practice of code of ethics among medical doctors. Hence, this study aimed to assess practice of code of ethics and associated factors among medical doctors working in governmental and private hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: Institution based cross sectional quantitative study triangulated with qualitative study was conducted among 500 medical doctors working in governmental and private hospitals and three key informants from Federal Ministry of Health, Ethiopian Food, Medicine and Healthcare Administration and Control Authority and Ethiopian Medical Association in Addis Ababa from May 8, 2017 to June 30, 2017. Data were collected using pretested self-administered structured questionnaire and semi-structured questionnaire. Binary Logistic Regression and Content Analysis methods were used for the quantitative and qualitative data analysis respectively. RESULTS: The study showed that only 152 (30.4%) of medical doctors had good practice of code of ethics. The odds of having good practice of code of ethics among medical doctors in the age group of 25-29 years were 2.749 times the odds of those in the age group of 30-34 years (AOR = 2.749, 95% CI: 1.483, 5.096), medical doctors working in governmental hospitals were 65.4% less likely to have good practice of code of ethics compared to those working in private hospitals (AOR = 0.346, 95% CI: 0.184, 0.652), knowledgeable medical doctors were 83.5% more likely to have good practice of code of ethics compared to those who were not knowledgeable about code of ethics (AOR = 1.835, 95% CI: 0.999, 3.368), and the odds of having good practice of code of ethics among medical doctors with favourable attitude were 7.404 times the odds of those with unfavourable attitude towards code of ethics (AOR = 7.404, 95% CI: 4.254, 12.887). Furthermore lack of motivation, unfavorable working environment, working at various health facilities simultaneously, public awareness, taking courses on medical ethics, lack of unethical conduct reporting and complaint handling system, incompetence of medical doctors, and weak collaboration among key stakeholders were identified as determinants of practice of code of ethics. CONCLUSIONS: Only 30.4% of medical doctors had good practice of code of ethics. This indicates that practice of code of ethics among medical doctors in Addis Ababa is poor. The factors associated with practice of code of ethics were age, type of hospital, knowledge, attitude, lack of motivation, unfavorable working environment, working at various health facilities simultaneously, public awareness, medical ethics course, lack of unethical conduct reporting and compliant handling system, incompetence of medical doctors and weak collaboration among key stakeholders. Hence, awareness creation and attitudinal change on code of ethics by continuous training, implementation of integrated medical ethics course, enforcement of code of ethics and continuing professional development (CPD) implementation are important.

A multiple-imputation-based approach to sensitivity analyses and effectiveness assessments in longitudinal clinical trials.

It is important to understand the effects of a drug as actually taken (effectiveness) and when taken as directed (efficacy). The primary objective of this investigation was to assess the statistical performance of a method referred to as placebo multiple imputation (pMI) as an estimator of effectiveness and as a worst reasonable case sensitivity analysis in assessing efficacy. The pMI method assumes the statistical behavior of placebo- and drug-treated patients after dropout is the statistical behavior of placebo-treated patients. Thus, in the effectiveness context, pMI assumes no pharmacological benefit of the drug after dropout. In the efficacy context, pMI is a specific form of a missing not at random analysis expected to yield a conservative estimate of efficacy. In a simulation study with 18 scenarios, the pMI approach generally provided unbiased estimates of effectiveness and conservative estimates of efficacy. However, the confidence interval coverage was consistently greater than the nominal coverage rate. In contrast, last and baseline observation carried forward (LOCF and BOCF) were conservative in some scenarios and anti-conservative in others with respect to efficacy and effectiveness. As expected, direct likelihood (DL) and standard multiple imputation (MI) yielded unbiased estimates of efficacy and tended to overestimate effectiveness in those scenarios where a drug effect existed. However, in scenarios with no drug effect, and therefore where the true values for both efficacy and effectiveness were zero, DL and MI yielded unbiased estimates of efficacy and effectiveness.