Material flow analysis of scarce metals: sources, functions, end-uses and aspects for future supply.

A number of metals that are now important to the electronic industry (and others) will become much more important in the future if current trends in technology continue. Most of these metals are byproducts (or hitch-hikers) of a small number of important industrial metals (attractors). By definition, the metals in the hitch-hiker group are not mined by themselves, and thus their production is limited by the demand for the major attractors. This article presents a material flow analysis (MFA) of the complex inter-relationships between these groups of metals. First, it surveys the main sources of geologically scarce (byproduct) metals currently considered critical by one or other of several recent studies. This is followed by a detailed survey of their major functions and the quantities contained in intermediate and end-products. The purpose is to identify the sectors and products where those metals are used and stocked and thus potentially available for future recycling. It concludes with a discussion of the limitations of possible substitution and barriers to recycling.

Material efficiency: rare and critical metals.

In the last few decades, progress in electronics, especially, has resulted in important new uses for a number of geologically rare metals, some of which were mere curiosities in the past. Most of them are not mined for their own sake (gold, the platinum group metals and the rare Earth elements are exceptions) but are found mainly in the ores of the major industrial metals, such as aluminium, copper, zinc and nickel. We call these major metals 'attractors' and the rare accompanying metals 'hitch-hikers'. The key implication is that rising prices do not necessarily call forth greater output because that would normally require greater output of the attractor metal. We trace the geological relationships and the functional uses of these metals. Some of these metals appear to be irreplaceable in the sense that there are no known substitutes for them in their current functional uses. Recycling is going to be increasingly important, notwithstanding a number of barriers.

Exergy efficiency in industry: where do we stand?

Efficiency is a term generally used to determine how well a system performs. However, efficiency can have different meanings and, unaccompanied by a formal definition or taken out of context, can lead to serious misconceptions. In many official publications, efficiency is calculated as the ratio of useful output to energy input. This measure reflects the first law of thermodynamics (conservation of energy) but does not reflect the potential for improvement. A better measure, that also reflects the second law of thermodynamics, is the ratio of the potential useful (exergy) output to the potential useful (exergy) input. We estimate second law efficiencies for the inorganic and organic chemical industries to be 29% and 35% respectively. We also estimate the efficiency of the U.S. industry sector as a whole to be 37.6%, as compared to only 7.7% for the overall U.S. economy. These figures are far lower than the "first law" figures published by the U.S. Department of Energy (80% for industry and 42.5% overall) and they imply a significant potential for improvement.

Efficiency dilution: long-term exergy conversion trends in Japan.

This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency captures the degree to which energy inputs (such as coal) are converted into useful work (such as electricity or power to move a vehicle). This approach enables the estimation of net efficiencies which aggregate different technologies. Sectors specifically analyzed are electricity generation, transport, steel production, and residential space heating. One result is that the aggregate exergy efficiency of the Japanese economy declined slightly over the last half of the 20th century, reaching a high of around 38% in the late 1970s and falling to around 33% by 1998. The explanation for this is that while individual technologies improved dramatically over the century, less exergy-efficient ones were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.

The 1.7 kilogram microchip: energy and material use in the production of semiconductor devices.

The scale of environmental impacts associated with the manufacture of microchips is characterized through analysis of material and energy inputs into processes in the production chain. The total weight of secondary fossil fuel and chemical inputs to produce and use a single 2-gram 32MB DRAM chip are estimated at 1600 g and 72 g, respectively. Use of water and elemental gases (mainly N2) in the fabrication stage are 32,000 and 700 g per chip, respectively. The production chain yielding silicon wafers from quartz uses 160 times the energy required for typical silicon, indicating that purification to semiconductor grade materials is energy intensive. Due to its extremely low-entropy, organized structure, the materials intensity of a microchip is orders of magnitude higher than that of "traditional" goods. Future analysis of semiconductor and other low entropy high-tech goods needs to include the use of secondary materials, especially for purification.