Forecasting the future of Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in India using ecological niche model.

The Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda is the most notorious invasive pest species on maize, recently reported in India. The continuous spread of Fall armyworms to new ecological niches raises global concern. The current study is the first in India to forecast the suitability of a habitat for S. frugiperda using a maximum entropy algorithm. Predictions were made based on an analysis of the relationship between 109 occurrence records of S. frugiperda and pertinent historical, current, and predicted climatic data for the study area. The model indicated that S. frugiperda could thrive in different habitats under the current environmental circumstances, particularly in the west and south Indian states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The model predicted that areas with higher latitudes, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and some portions of Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as some tracts of northeastern states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, would have highly climate-suitable conditions for S. frugiperda to occur in the future. The average AUC value was 0.852, which indicates excellent accuracy of the prediction. A Jackknife test of variables indicated that isothermality with the highest gain value was determining the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda. Our results will be useful for serving as an early warning tool to guide decision-making and prevent further spread toward new areas in India.

Impact of temperature on the bionomics and geographical range margins of the two-spotted field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the world: Implications for its mass farming.

Gryllus bimaculatus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is widely considered an excellent nutrient source for food and feed. Despite its economic importance, there is limited information on the impact of temperature on the bionomics of this cricket to guide its effective and sustainable mass production in its geographical range. The biological parameters of G. bimaculatus were investigated at eight different temperatures ranging from 20-40˚C. The Insect Life-Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) program was used to fit linear and non-linear functions to the data to describe the influence of temperature on life history parameters and its farmability under the current and projected climate for 2050. Our results revealed that G. bimaculatus was able to complete its lifecycle in the temperature range of 20°C to 37°C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (= 1.14) at 35°C. The developmental time of G. bimaculatus decreased with increasing temperature. The least developmental time and mortality were attained at 32°C. The highest wet length and mass of G. bimaculatus occurred at 32°C. The lowest temperature threshold for G. bimaculatus egg and nymph development was approximated using linear regression functions to be at 15.9°C and 16.2°C with a temperature constant of 108.7 and 555.6 degree days. The maximum fecundity (2301.98 eggs per female), net reproductive rate (988.42 daughters/ generation), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.134 days) were recorded at 32°C and the shortest doubling of 5.2 days was observed at 35°C. Based on our findings G. bimaculatus can be farmed in countries with temperatures ranging between 20 and 37°C around the globe. These findings will help the cricket farmers understand and project the cricket population dynamics around the world as influenced by temperature, and as such, will contribute to more efficient farming.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of the invasive tomato pinworm Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae).

Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (= Tuta absoluta) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is the most damaging insect pest threatening the production of tomato and other solanaceous vegetables in many countries. In this study, we predicted the risk of establishment and number of generations for P. absoluta in the current and future climatic conditions under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of the years 2050 and 2070 using insect life cycle modelling (ILCYM) software. We used a temperature-dependent phenology model to project three risk indices viz., establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) based on temperature data. The model projected large suitable areas for P. absoluta establishment in the Southern hemisphere under current and future climatic scenarios, compared to the Northern part. However, the risk of P. absoluta is expected to increase in Europe, USA, Southern Africa, and some parts of Asia in the future. Under current conditions, P. absoluta can complete between 6 and 16 generations per year in suitable areas. However, an increase in GI between 1 and 3 per year is projected for most parts of the world in the future, with an increase in AI between 1 and 4. Our results provide information on the risk of establishment of P. absoluta which could guide decision-makers to develop control strategies adapted for specific agro-ecological zones.

Integrating temperature-dependent development and reproduction models for predicting population growth of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari.

The coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is the most devastating insect pest of coffee worldwide. It feeds on the beans inside the berries leading to significant crop losses and unmarketable products. This study aims to model the impact of temperature on H. hampei fecundity and population growth parameters, as a contribution to the prediction of infestation risk. The fecundity was assessed on fresh coffee beans at six constant temperatures in the range 15-30°C, with RH 80 ± 5% and photoperiod 12:12 L:D. Nonlinear models were fitted to the relationship between fecundity and temperature using the ILCYM software. The best fecundity model was combined to development models obtained for immature stages in a previous study in order to simulate life table parameters at different constant temperatures. Females of H. hampei successfully oviposited in the temperature range 15-30°C, with the highest fecundity observed at 23°C (106.1 offspring per female). Polynomial function 8 model was the best fitted to the relationship between fecundity and temperature. With this model, the highest fecundity was estimated at 23°C, with 110 eggs per female. The simulated net reproductive rate (R0) was maximal at 24°C, with 50.08 daughters per female, while the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was the highest at 26°C, with a value of 0.069. Our results will help understand H. hampei population dynamics and develop an ecologically sound management strategy based on a better assessment of infestation risk.

Disentangling thermal effects using life cycle simulation modelling on the biology and demographic parameters of Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris, a parasitoid of Tuta absoluta.

Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn. Apanteles gelechiidivoris) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a konoibiont larval endoparasitoid of the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta (Meyrick), was imported into Kenya in 2017 for the first classical biological control of T. absoluta in Africa. We determined the thermal thresholds of D. gelechiidivoris, with T. absoluta as host, using life cycle simulation modelling. Life-table data of D. gelechiidivoris were generated at six constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C, 65 ± 5% RH, and 12L: 12D photoperiod). Multiple non-linear functions were fitted to model some aspects of the biology of the parasitoid, including its longevity, mortality, reproduction, and senescence using Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) software. The phenology models established were used to estimate life table parameters. Except at 35 °C, D. gelechiidivoris completed its development (i.e., egg-larval-pupa-adult) at all tested temperatures. The minimum temperature threshold from egg to cocoon was 7.0 °C and 5.9 °C from cocoon to adult wasp, while the maximum temperature thresholds were 34 °C and 36 °C, respectively. The optimal temperature for immature survival was 20-25 °C, while fecundity was optimum at 22.5 °C, with 69.5 eggs per female. Simulations of the population growth parameters indicated that the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was maximum at 20 °C with 15 daughters per female per generation. Based on our findings the release of D. gelechiidivoris for inoculative augmentation in countries with temperatures ranging between 15 and 30 °C could be considered to control the pest.

Estimating the Demographic Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Using Temperature-Dependent Development Models and Their Validation under Fluctuating Temperature.

The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is an invasive pest that devastates the production of tomatoes and other solanaceous vegetables. Since its trans-Atlantic invasion in 2006, T. absoluta has spread and established in many countries across the Afro-Eurasian Supercontinent, causing huge yield losses. This study aimed to determine the relationship between temperature and the life history traits of T. absoluta and provide the thermal thresholds for development using life cycle modelling. Linear and non-linear models were fitted to life table data collected at five constant temperatures of 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C, with Relative Humidity 70 ± 5% and photoperiod 12L:12D. Another experiment was conducted at fluctuating temperatures to validate the laboratory results. Tuta absoluta completed its life cycle at temperatures between 15 and 35 °C. The development time ranged between 4.0-11 days, 6.3-16.0 days, and 5.4-20.7 days for egg, larva, and pupa, respectively. The lowest thermal threshold was estimated at 8.10, 7.83, and 11.62 °C, respectively for egg, larva, and pupa. While the optimum temperature for T. absoluta immature stages survival and female fecundity were predicted at a temperature range of 21-23 °C. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm), gross reproductive (GRR), and net reproductive (Ro) rates were significantly higher at temperatures between 20-25 °C. The model validation outcome showed similarities between observed and simulated values for development time, mortality rate, and life table parameters, attesting to the quality of the phenology model. Our results will help in predicting the effect of climate warming on the distribution and population dynamics of T. absoluta. Furthermore, the results could be used to develop management strategies adapted to different agroecological zones.

Determination of temperature thresholds for the parasitoid Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), using life cycle simulation modeling: Implications for effective field releases in classical biological control of fruit flies.

The braconid parasitoid Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is one of the most important natural enemies in classical biological control programs against tephritid fruit flies worldwide. In light of the spread of the invasive fruit fly species, Bactrocera dorsalis in Africa and beyond, there is a need to implement classical biological control. The current study aimed to determine temperature thresholds for D. longicaudata reared on B. dorsalis, using life cycle simulation modeling to guide informed parasitoid releases in Africa. Simulated parameters included thermal requirements, population growth parameters at different temperature requirements, suitable areas for the establishment, and the number of generations per year under projected climatic conditions. The lower thermal threshold for the development was estimated at 10.0°C, with a thermal constant (k) of 333.3-degree days, while the maximum temperature threshold was estimated at 33.69°C. Fecundity was highest at 25°C, with 177.3 eggs per female. Temperature significantly affected the population growth parameters of D. longicaudata, and the maximum value of the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.145 at 27°C. Results indicate that D. longicaudata could successfully establish in tropical and sub-tropical regions under current and future climatic conditions. However, a slight change in the suitable areas is expected by the year 2050 due to a slight and gradual rise in temperature. Our findings provide important information for further release of this parasitoid in Africa as well as designing pest management strategies to limit the spread and reduce the impact of fruit flies sustainably.

Predicting the current and future distribution of the edible long-horned grasshopper Ruspolia differens (Serville) using temperature-dependent phenology models.

The edible long-horned grasshopper Ruspolia differens (Serville) is widely distributed and consumed in sub-Saharan Africa. Efficient mass rearing of the edible grasshopper is critical to ensure their sustainable supply for food and nutritional security. Hence, we investigated the effect of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of R. differens under six constant (15, 20, 25, 30, 32 and 35 °C) and fluctuating temperatures. Using Insect Life Cycle Modeling software we fitted, linear and non-linear models to R. differens development, mortality, longevity, and fecundity. The best-fitted functions were compiled for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which was stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. We used the process-based climatic phenology models, and applied establishment risk index (ERI) and generation index (GI) in a geographic information system to map the potential distribution of R. differens under current and future climates. At optimum temperatures of 30-32 °C, egg incubation period was 14-15 days and the developmental time was shortest at 52.5-58 days. Lowest nymphal mortality (3.4-13%) and the highest female fecundity was obtained at 25-30 °C. The optimum temperature for the reproduction ranged between 27 and 30 °C. Most simulated lifetable parameters were at their maximum at 28 °C. Predictive models showed that countries in the East, Central, West, Southern and the Horn of Africa were suitable for establishment of R. differens under current climate scenarios (2000). However, by 2050, climatically suitable areas for the establishment of R. differens were predicted to shrink in the West, Southern and the Horn of Africa than its current distribution. We predict up to three generations per year for R. differens in sub-Saharan Africa under current scenarios which can increase to 4 under future scenarios. The optimum rearing temperatures identified can guide optimization of mass rearing of R. differens.

Interactions between Two Parasitoids of Tephritidae: Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead) and Psyttalia cosyrae (Wilkinson) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), under Laboratory Conditions.

The braconid wasp, Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead), was introduced in Kenya from Hawaii for classical biological control of the invasive tephritid, Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel. Following reports that D. longicaudata had formed new associations with Ceratitis cosyra, laboratory experiments were conducted to assess the interaction between the introduced and the native parasitoid of C. cosyra; Psyttalia cosyrae (Wilkinson) under three scenarios: B. dorsalis only, C. cosyra only and mixed populations of the two species. Parasitoids were introduced to the host as sole, sequential and simultaneous releases. Host searching and probing events were five times higher for D. longicaudata than P. cosyrae with both hosts. Total parasitism was highest (78%) when D. longicaudata was released alone on C. cosyra, compared to 20% for P. cosyrae released on the same host. Releases of P. cosyrae on B. dorsalis resulted in 0% parasitism, compared to 64% parasitism by D. longicaudata. Specific parasitism for P. cosyrae was three times higher when P. cosyrae was released first in sequential releases on C. cosyra compared to when it was released after D. longicaudata. These findings suggest that the two parasitoids can both suppress C. cosyra but B. dorsalis acts as a reproductive sink for P. cosyrae. Our findings should form the basis of field investigations where options are much wider for both parasitoids.

Modelling the effect of temperature on the biology and demographic parameters of the African coffee white stem borer, Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

The African coffee white stem borer Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a destructive insect pest of Arabica coffee trees in African highlands. Our study aims to provide information on the pest biology as influenced by temperature, determine thermal thresholds, and provide life table parameters for M. leuconotus reared in the laboratory. The life cycle of M. leuconotus was studied at seven constant temperatures in the range 15-35 °C, with 80 ± 5% RH and a photoperiod of L:D 12:12. Linear and nonlinear models were fitted to laboratory data to describe the impact of temperature on M. leuconotus development, mortality, fecundity and senescence. The complete life cycle was obtained between 18 and 30 °C, with the egg incubation period ranging 10.8-29.2 days. The development time was longest for the larva, with 194.2 days at 30 °C and 543.1 days at 18 °C. The minimum temperature threshold (Tmin) was estimated at 10.7, 10.0 and 11.5 °C, for egg, larva and pupa, respectively. The maximum temperature threshold (Tmax) was estimated at 37.4, 40.6 and 40.0 °C for egg, larva and pupa, respectively. The optimum temperature for immature stage survival was estimated between 23.0 and 23.9 °C. The highest fecundity was 97.8 eggs per female at 23 °C. Simulated life table parameters showed the highest net reproductive rate (Ro) of 11.8 daughters per female at 26 °C and maximal intrinsic rate of increase (rm) between 26 and 28 °C, with a value of 0.008. Our results will help understanding M. leuconotus biology as influenced by temperature and may be used to predict the distribution and infestation risk under climate warming for this critical coffee pest.

Prediction of insect pest distribution as influenced by elevation: Combining field observations and temperature-dependent development models for the coffee stink bug, Antestiopsis thunbergii (Gmelin).

The antestia bug, Antestiopsis thunbergii (Gmelin 1790) is a major pest of Arabica coffee in Africa. The bug prefers coffee at the highest elevations, contrary to other major pests. The objectives of this study were to describe the relationship between A. thunbergii populations and elevation, to elucidate this relationship using our knowledge of the pest thermal biology and to predict the pest distribution under climate warming. Antestiopsis thunbergii population density was assessed in 24 coffee farms located along a transect delimited across an elevation gradient in the range 1000-1700 m asl, on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Density was assessed for three different climatic seasons, the cool dry season in June 2014 and 2015, the short rainy season in October 2014 and the warm dry season in January 2015. The pest distribution was predicted over the same transect using three risk indices: the establishment risk index (ERI), the generation index (GI) and the activity index (AI). These indices were computed using simulated life table parameters obtained from temperature-dependent development models and temperature data from 1) field records using data loggers deployed over the transect and 2) predictions for year 2055 extracted from AFRICLIM database. The observed population density was the highest during the cool dry season and increased significantly with increasing elevation. For current temperature, the ERI increased with an increase in elevation and was therefore distributed similarly to observed populations, contrary to the other indices. This result suggests that immature stage susceptibility to extreme temperatures was a key factor of population distribution as impacted by elevation. In the future, distribution of the risk indices globally indicated a decrease of the risk at low elevation and an increase of the risk at the highest elevations. Based on these results, we concluded with recommendations to mitigate the risk of A. thunbergii infestation.

Temperature-dependent models of development and survival of an insect pest of African tropical highlands, the coffee antestia bug Antestiopsis thunbergii (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae).

The antestia bug Antestiopsis thunbergii (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) is a major pest of Arabica coffee in African tropical highlands. It feeds on coffee plant vegetative parts and berries leading to a direct reduction in coffee yield and quality. This study aimed to determine A. thunbergii thermal requirements, and to obtain new information on the pest demography as influenced by temperature. Temperature-dependent models were developed using the Insect Life Cycle Modelling software (ILCYM) through a complete life table study at seven constant temperatures in the range 18-32°C. Non-linear functions were fitted to A. thunbergii development, mortality, fecundity and senescence. Model parameters and demographic variables obtained from the models were given for each temperature and development stage. Life table parameters were estimated for nine constant temperatures, from 18°C to 26°C, using stochastic simulations. The minimum temperature threshold (Tmin) and the thermal constant (k) for the development from egg to adult were estimated from a linear function at 12.1°C and 666.67° days, respectively. The maximum temperature threshold (Tmax) was estimated at 33.9°C from a Logan model. The optimum temperature for immature stages' survival was estimated to be between 22.4 and 24.7°C. The maximum fecundity was 147.7 eggs female-1 at 21.2°C. Simulated A. thunbergii life table parameters were affected by temperature, and the maximum value of intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.029 at 22°C and 23°C. In general, the life cycle data, models and demographic parameters we obtained were in line with previous reports for antestia bugs or other stink bug species. The relationships between the pest thermal requirements and ecological preferences in highland coffee were discussed. Our results will contribute to risk prediction under climate change for this important coffee pest.