Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies.

Although the relationship between weather and health is widely studied, there are still gaps in this knowledge. The present paper proposes data transformation as a way to address these gaps and discusses four different strategies designed to study particular aspects of a weather-health relationship, including (i) temporally aggregating the series, (ii) decomposing the different time scales of the data by empirical model decomposition, (iii) disaggregating the exposure series by considering the whole daily temperature curve as a single function, and (iv) considering the whole year of data as a single, continuous function. These four strategies allow studying non-conventional aspects of the mortality-temperature relationship by retrieving non-dominant time scale from data and allow to study the impact of the time of occurrence of particular event. A real-world case study of temperature-related cardiovascular mortality in the city of Montreal, Canada illustrates that these strategies can shed new lights on the relationship and outlines their strengths and weaknesses. A cross-validation comparison shows that the flexibility of functional regression used in strategies (iii) and (iv) allows a good fit of temperature-related mortality. These strategies can help understanding more accurately climate-related health.

Cardiovascular Health Peaks and Meteorological Conditions: A Quantile Regression Approach.

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are influenced by meteorological conditions, such as temperature or snowfall. Relationships between cardiovascular health and meteorological conditions are usually studied based on specific meteorological events or means. However, those studies bring little to no insight into health peaks and unusual events far from the mean, such as a day with an unusually high number of hospitalizations. Health peaks represent a heavy burden for the public health system; they are, however, usually studied specifically when they occur (e.g., the European 2003 heatwave). Specific analyses are needed, using appropriate statistical tools. Quantile regression can provide such analysis by focusing not only on the conditional median, but on different conditional quantiles of the dependent variable. In particular, high quantiles of a health issue can be treated as health peaks. In this study, quantile regression is used to model the relationships between conditional quantiles of cardiovascular variables and meteorological variables in Montreal (Canada), focusing on health peaks. Results show that meteorological impacts are not constant throughout the conditional quantiles. They are stronger in health peaks compared to quantiles around the median. Results also show that temperature is the main significant variable. This study highlights the fact that classical statistical methods are not appropriate when health peaks are of interest. Quantile regression allows for more precise estimations for health peaks, which could lead to refined public health warnings.

A new look at weather-related health impacts through functional regression.

A major challenge of climate change adaptation is to assess the effect of changing weather on human health. In spite of an increasing literature on the weather-related health subject, many aspect of the relationship are not known, limiting the predictive power of epidemiologic models. The present paper proposes new models to improve the performances of the currently used ones. The proposed models are based on functional data analysis (FDA), a statistical framework dealing with continuous curves instead of scalar time series. The models are applied to the temperature-related cardiovascular mortality issue in Montreal. By making use of the whole information available, the proposed models improve the prediction of cardiovascular mortality according to temperature. In addition, results shed new lights on the relationship by quantifying physiological adaptation effects. These results, not found with classical model, illustrate the potential of FDA approaches.

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality.

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship.

EMD-regression for modelling multi-scale relationships, and application to weather-related cardiovascular mortality.

In a number of environmental studies, relationships between nat4ural processes are often assessed through regression analyses, using time series data. Such data are often multi-scale and non-stationary, leading to a poor accuracy of the resulting regression models and therefore to results with moderate reliability. To deal with this issue, the present paper introduces the EMD-regression methodology consisting in applying the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm on data series and then using the resulting components in regression models. The proposed methodology presents a number of advantages. First, it accounts of the issues of non-stationarity associated to the data series. Second, this approach acts as a scan for the relationship between a response variable and the predictors at different time scales, providing new insights about this relationship. To illustrate the proposed methodology it is applied to study the relationship between weather and cardiovascular mortality in Montreal, Canada. The results shed new knowledge concerning the studied relationship. For instance, they show that the humidity can cause excess mortality at the monthly time scale, which is a scale not visible in classical models. A comparison is also conducted with state of the art methods which are the generalized additive models and distributed lag models, both widely used in weather-related health studies. The comparison shows that EMD-regression achieves better prediction performances and provides more details than classical models concerning the relationship.

Effects of climate and fine particulate matter on hospitalizations and deaths for heart failure in elderly: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the effects of climate and air pollutant exposure on heart failure (HF) within taking into account individual and contextual variables. OBJECTIVES: We measured the lag effects of temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on hospitalizations and deaths for HF in elderly diagnosed with this disease on a 10-year period in the province of Quebec, Canada. METHODS: Our population-based cohort study included 112,793 elderly diagnosed with HF between 2001 and 2011. Time dependent Cox regression models approximated with pooled logistic regressions were used to evaluate the 3- and 7-day lag effects of daily temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and PM2.5 exposure on HF morbidity and mortality controlling for several individual and contextual covariates. RESULTS: Overall, 18,309 elderly were hospitalized and 4297 died for the main cause of HF. We observed an increased risk of hospitalizations and deaths for HF with a decrease in the average temperature of the 3 and 7days before the event. An increase in atmospheric pressure in the previous 7days was also associated with a higher risk of having a HF negative outcome, but no effect was observed in the 3-day lag model. No association was found with relative humidity and with PM2.5 regardless of the lag period. CONCLUSIONS: Lag effects of temperature and other meteorological parameters on HF events were limited but present. Nonetheless, preventive measures should be issued for elderly diagnosed with HF considering the burden and the expensive costs associated with the management of this disease.

The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Continuing Medical Education Needs Assessment Framework.

INTRODUCTION: As the health consequences of climate change (CC) will likely become more manifest in the future, family physicians have to be knowledgeable about these impacts and the ways in which they can affect their patients. The main aim of this study was to propose a competency framework and questionnaire used to conduct a needs analysis to identify and prioritize family physicians' real educational needs regarding the health impacts of CC. METHODS: A mixed method combining a qualitative interview and a quantitative online questionnaire was used (n = 24 physicians). The interview assessed key beliefs related to participating in an online continuing medical education (eCME) activity on the health impacts of climate change, and the perception of the key factors or conditions required to ensure the family physicians' satisfaction with this eCME activity. The questionnaire assessed the current and desired levels of competency on five general training themes: general knowledge about CC; heat-related illnesses; CC, extreme weather events and modification of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases; CC, extreme weather events and modification of water-borne diseases; and mental health impacts of natural disasters. RESULTS: Results revealed the need for improved medical education on climate change and health. Results also add to the literature by showing that a 3-hour eCME activity covering these topics would be useful and would allow family physicians to use this knowledge in their daily practice, notably through prevention and counseling. DISCUSSION: Introducing a CME needs assessment framework and a generic instrument that reflects family physicians' needs regarding the health impacts of CC has the added advantage of standardizing the assessment procedure.

Association between Floods and Acute Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Cohort Study Using a Geographic Information System Approach.

BACKGROUND: Floods represent a serious threat to human health beyond the immediate risk of drowning. There is few data on the potential link between floods and direct consequences on health such as on cardiovascular health. This study aimed to explore the impact of one of the worst floods in the history of Quebec, Canada on acute cardiovascular diseases (CVD). METHODS: A cohort study with a time series design with multiple control groups was built with the adult population identified in the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. A geographic information system approach was used to define the study areas. Logistic regressions were performed to compare the occurrence of CVD between groups. RESULTS: The results showed a 25%-27% increase in the odds in the flooded population in spring 2011 when compared with the population in the same area in springs 2010 and 2012. Besides, an increase up to 69% was observed in individuals with a medical history of CVD. CONCLUSION: Despite interesting results, the association was not statistically significant. A possible explanation to this result can be that the population affected by the flood was probably too small to provide the statistical power to answer the question, and leaves open a substantial possibility for a real and large effect.

A multilevel analysis to explain self-reported adverse health effects and adaptation to urban heat: a cross-sectional survey in the deprived areas of 9 Canadian cities.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies the characteristics and perceptions related to the individual, the dwelling and the neighbourhood of residence associated with the prevalence of self-reported adverse health impacts and an adaptation index when it is very hot and humid in summer in the most disadvantaged sectors of the nine most populous cities of Québec, Canada, in 2011. METHODS: The study uses a cross-sectional design and a stratified representative sample; 3485 people (individual-level) were interviewed in their residence. They lived in 1647 buildings (building-level) in 87 most materially and socially disadvantaged census dissemination areas (DA-level). Multilevel analysis was used to perform 3-level models nested one in the other to examine individual impacts as well as the adaptation index. RESULTS: For the prevalence of impacts, which is 46 %, the logistic model includes 13 individual-level indicators (including air conditioning and the adaptation index) and 1 building-level indicator. For the adaptation index, with values ranging from -3 to +3, the linear model has 10 individual-level indicators, 1 building-level indicator and 2 DA-level indicators. Of all these indicators, 9 were associated to the prevalence of impacts only and 8 to the adaptation index only. CONCLUSION: This 3-level analysis shows the differential importance of the characteristics of residents, buildings and their surroundings on self-reported adverse health impacts and on adaptation (other than air conditioning) under hot and humid summer conditions. It also identifies indicators specific to impacts or adaptation. People with negative health impacts from heat rely more on adaptation strategies while low physical activity and good dwelling/building insulation lead to lower adaptation. Better neighbourhood walkability favors adaptations other than air conditioning. Thus, adaptation to heat in these neighbourhoods seems reactive rather than preventive. These first multi-level insights pave the way for the development of a theoretical framework of the process from heat exposure to impacts and adaptation for research, surveillance and public health interventions at all relevant levels.

Neighbourhood and dwelling characteristics associated with the self-reported adverse health effects of heat in most deprived urban areas: a cross-sectional study in 9 cities.

Dwelling and neighbourhood characteristics associated with the prevalence of self-reported heat-induced adverse health effects are not well known. We interviewed 3485 people in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods of the nine largest cities in Québec, Canada. The prevalence of heat-induced adverse health effects was 46%, out of which one fourth led to medical consultation. Multivariate analyses showed that dissatisfaction with the summer dwelling temperature, which refers to home heat exposure, and perception that the neighbourhood is polluted due to traffic, were determinant, even after adjusting for current health status. These risk indicators can be used to identify subgroups at high risk and as priority-setting criteria for urban renewal programs for the hotter climate to come.

Perceived adverse health effects of heat and their determinants in deprived neighbourhoods: a cross-sectional survey of nine cities in Canada.

This study identifies several characteristics of individuals who report their physical and/or mental health as being adversely affected by summertime heat and humidity, within the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods of the nine largest cities of Québec (Canada). The study is cross-sectional by stratified representative sample; 3485 people were interviewed in their residence. The prevalence of reported impacts was 46%, mostly physical health. Female gender and long-term medical leave are two impact risk indicators in people <65 years of age. Low income and air conditioning at home are risk indicators at all ages. Results for having ≥2 diagnoses of chronic diseases, particularly for people self-describing as in poor health (odds ratio, OR<65 = 5.6; OR≥65 = 4.2), and perceiving daily stress, are independent of age. The prevalence of reported heat-related health impacts is thus very high in those inner cities, with notable differences according to age, stress levels and long-term medical leave, previously unmentioned in the literature. Finally, the total number of pre-existing medical conditions seems to be a preponderant risk factor. This study complements the epidemiologic studies based on mortality or severe morbidity and shows that the heat-related burden of disease appears very important in those communities, affecting several subgroups differentially.

Development of composite indices to measure the adoption of pro-environmental behaviours across Canadian provinces.

OBJECTIVE: The adoption of pro-environmental behaviours reduces anthropogenic environmental impacts and subsequent human health effects. This study developed composite indices measuring adoption of pro-environmental behaviours at the household level in Canada. METHODS: The 2007 Households and the Environment Survey conducted by Statistics Canada collected data on Canadian environmental behaviours at households' level. A subset of 55 retained questions from this survey was analyzed by Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to develop the index. Weights attributed by MCA were used to compute scores for each Canadian province as well as for socio-demographic strata. Scores were classified into four categories reflecting different levels of adoption of pro-environmental behaviours. RESULTS: Two indices were finally created: one based on 23 questions related to behaviours done inside the dwelling and a second based on 16 questions measuring behaviours done outside of the dwelling. British Columbia, Quebec, Prince-Edward-Island and Nova-Scotia appeared in one of the two top categories of adoption of pro-environmental behaviours for both indices. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland-and-Labrador were classified in one of the two last categories of pro-environmental behaviours adoption for both indices. Households with a higher income, educational attainment, or greater number of persons adopted more indoor pro-environmental behaviours, while on the outdoor index, they adopted fewer such behaviours. Households with low-income fared better on the adoption of outdoors pro-environmental behaviours. CONCLUSION: MCA was successfully applied in creating Indoor and Outdoor composite Indices of pro-environmental behaviours. The Indices cover a good range of environmental themes and the analysis could be applied to similar surveys worldwide (as baseline weights) enabling temporal trend comparison for recurring themes. Much more than voluntary measures, the study shows that existing regulations, dwelling type, households composition and income as well as climate are the major factors determining pro-environmental behaviours.

Health impacts of the July 2010 heat wave in Québec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: One of the consequences of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves which can cause serious health impacts. In Québec, July 2010 was marked by an unprecedented heat wave in recent history. The purpose of this study is to estimate certain health impacts of this heat wave. METHODS: The crude daily death and emergency department admission rates during the heat wave were analyzed in relation to comparison periods using 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: During the heat wave, the crude daily rates showed a significant increase of 33% for deaths and 4% for emergency department admissions in relation to comparison periods. No displacement of mortality was observed over a 60-day horizon. CONCLUSIONS: The all-cause death indicator seems to be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance of exceedences of critical temperature thresholds, which makes it useful for a heat health-watch system. Many public health actions combined with the increased use of air conditioning in recent decades have contributed to a marked reduction in mortality during heat waves. However, an important residual risk remains, which needs to be more vigorously addressed by public health authorities in light of the expected increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves and the aging of the population.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998-): a climate change-related public health narrative.

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec's new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human-environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a "public health narrative" presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998-2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002-2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006-2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and "transfrontier knowledge-to-action" for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures.

An open source web application for the surveillance and prevention of the impacts on public health of extreme meteorological events: the SUPREME system.

BACKGROUND: Every year, many deaths or health problems are directly linked to heat waves. Consequently, numerous jurisdictions around the world have developed intervention plans that are employed during extreme heat events; beyond their emergency sections, these plans generally include preventive measures to be implemented each year. Over the last five years, local and regional information systems have been implemented in a few Canadian cities for surveillance purposes. However, until recently, no such systems existed at the provincial level. In the context of the Government of Quebec's 2006-2012 Action Plan on Climate Change, a real-time integrated system for the surveillance and monitoring of extreme heat events has been implemented on a provincial level. The system is a component of a broader approach that would also monitor the public health impacts of all types of extreme meteorological events. RESULTS: After conducting a detailed needs analysis, the Quebec National Institute for Public Health developed and implemented an integrated web application leveraging open source software for the real-time Surveillance and Prevention of the impacts of Extreme Meteorological Events on public health, called the SUPREME system. Its first field use involved heat waves. This decision-support system is based on open source software and is composed of four modules: (1) data acquisition and integration, (2) risk analysis and alerts, (3), cartographic application, and (4) information dissemination - climate change and health portal. The system is available to health specialists through a secure web information portal and provides access to weather forecasts, historic and real-time indicators (including deaths and hospital admissions), alerts and various cartographic data used for conducting prevention activities and launching emergency measures. CONCLUSIONS: The SUPREME system was implemented and used during the summer of 2010. It served as an important decision-making tool during the July 2010 heat wave in the province of Quebec, Canada. Planned improvements for 2011 include the integration of data related to other risk factors for other extreme events to the system. The next steps will be to provide access to the application to other groups of specialists that are involved in the prevention, monitoring, or analysis of extreme meteorological events and their effects on community health and well-being.

[Research, impact and adaptation in public health for the new climate of Quebec]. / Recherche, impacts et adaptations de santé publique au nouveau climat du Québec.

After its modest beginnings focusing on arctic Quebec in 1999, the Quebec research programme on health and climate change became interested in the remainder of the province around 2002. The European heat wave in 2003 accelerated the pace of this programme and prompted the Quebec health sector's participation in the Ouranos Research Consortium. The research findings from the 2003-2006 period have directly fed into the health component of the Quebec government's climate change action plan (2006-2012), financed through the first carbon tax in the Americas. This component is planning for a series of adaptations to the health network and to some other public networks, which will apply to construction, the built environment and outdoor developments, clinical management methods and practices, public health surveillance as well as emergency preparedness. In this article, the authors describe how research is supporting action and implementation, while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction has progressively established itself over the last 10 years.

Use of a remote car starter in relation to smog and climate change perceptions: a population survey in Québec (Canada).

Remote car starters encourage motorists to warm up their vehicles by idling the motor--thus increasing atmospheric pollutants, including several greenhouse gas (GHG) with impacts on public health. This study about climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation actions examined perceptions on air pollution and climate change and individual characteristics associated with the use of a remote car starter. A telephone survey (n = 2,570; response rate: 70%) of adults living in Québec (Canada) measured the respondents' beliefs and current behaviours regarding CC. Approximately 32.9% (daily car users) and 27.4% (occasional users) reported using a remote car starter during winter. The odds of the use of a remote car starter was higher in the less densely populated central (OR: 1.5) and peripheral regions (OR: 2.7) compared to the urban centers (ex. Montreal). The odds was also higher in population with a mother tongue other than English or French (OR: 2.6) and francophones than anglophones (OR: 2.1), women than men (OR: 1.5), daily drivers than occasional ones (OR: 1.2), and respondents who at least sometimes consulted temperature/humidity reports than those who consulted them less often (OR: 1.5). In multivariate analysis, the perception of living in a region susceptible to winter smog, being aware of smog warnings, or the belief in the human contribution to CC did not significantly influence the use of a remote car starter. The use of remote car starters encourages idling which produces increased atmospheric pollution and GHG production and it should be more efficiently and vigorously managed by various activities. A five-minute daily reduction in idling is equivalent to reducing the total car emissions by 1.8%. This would constitute a "no-regrets" approach to CC as it can simultaneously reduce GHG, air pollution and their health impacts.

Use of residential wood heating in a context of climate change: a population survey in Québec (Canada).

BACKGROUND: Wood heating is recommended in several countries as a climate change (CC) adaptation measure, mainly to increase the autonomy of households during power outages due to extreme climatic events. The aim of this study was to examine various perceptions and individual characteristics associated with wood heating through a survey about CC adaptations. METHODS: A telephone survey (n = 2,545) of adults living in the southern part of the province of Québec (Canada) was conducted in the early fall season of 2005. The questionnaire used closed questions and measured the respondents' beliefs and current adaptations about CC. Calibration weighting was used to adjust the data analysis for the respondent's age and language under stratified sampling based on health regions. RESULTS: More than three out of four respondents had access to a single source of energy at home, which was mainly electricity; 22.2% combined two sources or more; 18.5% heated with wood occasionally or daily during the winter. The prevalence of wood heating was higher in the peripheral regions than in the more urban regions, where there was a higher proportion of respondents living in apartments. The prevalence was also higher with participants completely disagreeing (38.5%) with the eventual prohibition of wood heating when there is smog in winter, compared to respondents somewhat disagreeing (24.2%) or agreeing (somewhat: 17.5%; completely: 10.4%) with the adoption of this strategy. It appears that the perception of living in a region susceptible to winter smog, smog warnings in the media, or the belief in the human contribution to CC, did not influence significantly wood heating practices. CONCLUSION: Increased residential wood heating could very well become a maladaptation to climate change, given its known consequences on winter smog and respiratory health. It would thus be appropriate to implement a long-term national program on improved and controlled residential wood heating. This would constitute a "no-regrets" adaptation to climate change, while reducing air pollution and its associated health impacts.

The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Québec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change and particularly increasing temperature on mortality has been examined for three cities in the province of Québec, Canada. METHODS: Generalized linear Poisson regression has been fitted to the total daily mortality for each city. Smooth parametric cubic splines of temperature and humidity have been used to do nonlinear modeling of these parameters. The model, to control for day of the week and for non-temperature seasonal factors, used a smooth function of time, including delayed effects. The model was then used to assess variation in mortality for simulated future temperatures obtained from an atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with downscaling regression techniques. Two CO2 emission scenarios are considered (scenarios A2 and B2). Projections are made for future periods around year 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099). RESULTS: A significant association between mortality and current temperature has been found for the three cities. Under CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, the mortality model predicts a significant increase in mortality in the summertime, and a smaller, but significant decrease in the fall season. The slight variations in projected mortality for future winter and spring seasons were found to be not statistically significant. The variations in projected annual mortality are dominated by an increase in mortality in the summer, which is not balanced by the decrease in mortality in the fall and winter seasons. The summer increase and the annual mortality range respectively from about 2% and 0.5% for the 2020 period, to 10% and 3% for the years around 2080. The difference between the mortality variations projected with the A2 or B2 scenarios was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: For the three cities, the two CO2 emission scenarios considered led to an increase in annual mortality, which contrasts with most European countries, where the projected increase in summer mortality with respect to climate change is overbalanced by the decrease in winter mortality. This highlights the importance of place in such analyses. The method proposed here to establish these estimates is general and can also be applied to small cities, where mortality rates are relatively low (ex. two deaths/day).