Spatial epidemiology of the Asian honey bee mite (Varroa destructor) in the North Island of New Zealand.

We describe the spatial epidemiology of Varroa destructor infestation among honey bee apiaries in the greater Auckland area of the North Island of New Zealand. The study population was comprised of 641 apiaries located within the boundaries of the study area on 11 April 2000. Cases were those members of the study population declared Varroa-infested on the basis of testing conducted between April and June 2000. The odds of Varroa was highest in apiaries in the area surrounding transport and storage facilities in the vicinity of Auckland International Airport. A mixed-effects geostatistical model, accounting for spatial extra-binomial variation in Varroa prevalence, showed a 17% reduction in the odds of an apiary being Varroa infested for each kilometre increase in the squared distance from the likely site of incursion (95% Bayesian credible interval 7-28%). The pattern of spatially autocorrelated risk that remained after controlling for the effect of distance from the likely incursion site identified areas thought to be 'secondary' foci of Varroa infestation initiated by beekeeper-assisted movement of infested bees. Targeted investigations within these identified areas indicated that the maximum rate of local spread of Varroa was in the order of 12 km/year (interquartile range 10-15 km/year).

Detection and characterisation of swine hepatitis E virus in New Zealand.

The objectives of the present study were to establish the presence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in New Zealand pigs, first by testing for HEV antibody in pig herds throughout New Zealand to measure the herd prevalence, then by attempting to amplify HEV genomic sequences by PCR. Antibody was measured by two independently designed ELISA serology tests. HEV RNA fragments were amplified by RT-PCR of nucleic acid extracted from faeces of 10-12-week-old piglets using primers targeting ORF1, ORF2, and ORF2/3. PCR products were subject to phylogenetic analysis. Antibody to HEV was found throughout New Zealand pig herds as well as in the different age groups within the herds. Twenty herds from 22 tested were positive for HEV antibody (91% herd prevalence). Phylogenetic analysis of the amplified sequences placed this New Zealand strain of HEV closest to the human European strain It-1 (AF 110390) and U.S. swine strain (AF 082843) with 88% and 83% similarity respectively in ORF1. It was concluded that HEV is widely distributed in the New Zealand pig population. Phylogenetic analysis shows that this is a new HEV strain, grouping most closely with the United States/European cluster, which includes HEV strains of both human and swine origin.

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis.

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1-60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60-100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of 'transport contacts per month' (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km2) in the area (HR1000 pigs 1.48) and herd size (HR100 pigs = 1.01). Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.

EpiMAN-SF: a decision-support system for managing swine fever epidemics.

During an outbreak of classical swine fever (hog cholera) or African swine fever, decisions in emergency headquarters have to be made under conditions of time pressure, limited resources and uncertainty. The computer program EpiMAN-SF is designed to support decision-making in this situation by providing up-to-date information and a structured approach to choosing from among competing tasks by combining electronic data management with expert system components. EpiMAN-SF provides accurate and timely summaries of the epidemic, using both text and graphics. In addition, the program provides tools for the epidemiological analysis and forecasting of the emergency, and for assessing current and alternative control strategies. The expert system and simulation models integrated in EpiMAN-SF have been evaluated using sensitivity analysis, historic outbreak data and expert opinion. The results demonstrate that EpiMAN-SF is a valid alternative to traditional data management during exotic disease epidemics.