Individualized Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mexico City Municipality during the First Six Waves of the Pandemic.

After COVID-19 emerged, alternative methods to laboratory tests for the individualized prediction of SARS-CoV-2 were developed in several world regions. The objective of this investigation was to develop models for the individualized prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large municipality of Mexico. The study included data from 36,949 patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection who received a diagnostic tested at health centers of the Alvaro Obregon Jurisdiction in Mexico City registered in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases (SISVER-SINAVE). The variables that were different between a positive test and a negative test were used to generate multivariate binary logistic regression models. There was a large variation in the prediction variables for the models of different pandemic waves. The models obtained an overall accuracy of 73% (63-82%), sensitivity of 52% (18-71%), and specificity of 84% (71-92%). In conclusion, the individualized prediction models of a positive COVID-19 test based on SISVER-SINAVE data had good performance. The large variation in the prediction variables for the models of different pandemic waves highlights the continuous change in the factors that influence the spread of COVID-19. These prediction models could be applied in early case identification strategies, especially in vulnerable populations.

Effectiveness of the Combination of Enalapril and Nifedipine for the Treatment of Hypertension versus Empirical Treatment in Primary Care Patients.

Hypertension in Mexico has a prevalence of 32% and is the second most widespread cause of consultation in primary care. Only 40% of patients in treatment have a blood pressure (BP) below 140/90 mmHg. This clinical trial aimed to compare the effectiveness of the combination of enalapril and nifedipine versus the empirical treatment for hypertension in patients with uncontrolled BP in a primary care center in Mexico City. Participants were randomized to treatment with enalapril and nifedipine (combination group) or to continue with the empirical treatment. Outcome variables were BP control, therapeutic adherence, and adverse effects at 6 months of follow-up. At the end of the follow-up period, BP control (64% versus 77%) and therapeutic adherence (53% versus 93%) showed an improvement from the baseline values in the group that received the combination treatment. BP control (51% versus 47%) and therapeutic adherence (64% versus 59%) in the group who received the empirical treatment did not show improvement from the baseline to follow-up. Combined treatment was 31% more efficacious than conventional empirical treatment (odds ratio = 3.9), which yielded an incremental clinical utility of 18% with high tolerability extent among patients in primary care in Mexico City. These results contribute to the control of arterial hypertension.