Planning for healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southeast of England: a system dynamics modelling approach.

OBJECTIVES: To develop, test, validate and implement a system dynamics model to simulate the pandemic progress and the impact of various interventions on viral spread, healthcare utilisation and demand in secondary care. DESIGN: We adopted the system dynamics model incorporating susceptible, exposed, infection and recovery framework to simulate the progress of the pandemic and how the interventions for the COVID-19 response influence the outcomes with a focus on secondary care. SETTING: This study was carried out covering all the local health systems in Southeast of England with a catchment population of six million with a specific focus on Kent and Medway system. PARTICIPANTS: Six local health systems in Southeast of England using Kent and Medway as a case study. INTERVENTIONS: Short to medium 'what if' scenarios incorporating human behaviour, non-pharmaceutical interventions and medical interventions were tested using the model with regular and continuous feedback of the model results to the local health system leaders for monitoring, planning and rapid response as needed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily output from the model which included number infected in the population, hospital admissions needing COVID-19 care, occupied general beds, continuous positive airway pressure beds, intensive care beds, hospital discharge pathways and deaths. RESULTS: We successfully implemented a regional series of models based on the local population needs which were used in healthcare planning as part of the pandemic response. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we have demonstrated the utility of system dynamics modelling incorporating local intelligence and collaborative working during the pandemic to respond rapidly and take decisions to protect the population. This led to strengthened cooperation among partners and ensured that the local population healthcare needs were met.

Comparative analysis of variation in the quality and completeness of local outbreak control plans for SARS-CoV-2 in English local authorities.

BACKGROUND: Local outbreak control plans (LOCPs) are statutory documents produced by local authorities (LAs) across England. LOCPs outline LAs' response to Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID19) outbreaks and the coordination of local resources, data and communication to support outbreak response. LOCPs are therefore crucial in the nation's response to COVID-19. However, there has been no previous systematic assessment of these documents. We performed this study to systematically assess the quality of LOCPs and to offer recommendations of good practice. METHODS: All published LOCPs were assessed for basic characteristics. A framework based on Department of Health and Social Care guidelines was used to assess a random sample of LOCPs. Qualitative analysis was undertaken for LOCPs with highest completeness. RESULTS: Hundred and thirty-seven of 150 LAs publicly published a full LOCP; 9 were drafts. Statistical analysis demonstrated the significant difference between reporting of mainstream schools, care homes and the homeless population and other educational settings, high-risk settings and other vulnerable groups. LOCPs varied in approach when structuring outbreak response information and focused on different areas of outbreak management. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of LAs are publicly accessible. There is significant variation between the reporting of high-risk settings and groups. Suggested recommendations may help to improve future LOCP updates.

Making every contact count: Can healthcare professionals do more to avoid preventable child deaths?

BACKGROUND: Healthcare professionals (HCPs) have a responsibility and unique opportunities to identify and act on safeguarding concerns. Child Safeguarding Practice Reviews (CSPRs) are produced in the United Kingdom when a child has died or been seriously harmed, and abuse or neglect is suspected or confirmed. To our knowledge there is no recent systematic analysis of CSPRs from an HCP perspective. OBJECTIVE: To establish if HCPs are acting in an appropriate and safe manner when confronted with cases of potential child abuse and neglect and recommend areas for further improvement. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTINGS: CSPR abstracts published on a specialist UK database between 2018 and 2021 involving the death of a child. METHODS: After applying the exclusion criteria we used stratified random sampling to select one third of eligible reports. Using a systematic framework, common qualitative themes were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS: 42 of 125 eligible CSPRs were analyzed. Child deaths were more common in male children and those aged under one. We identified areas where communication could be further improved including better understanding of the referral process, coordination at discharge, and communication between primary and secondary care. We found that HCPs were not well equipped to identify risk factors for child abuse such as poor parental health and complex family structures. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant scope for improvement in strengthening the knowledge and skill base of HCPs in identifying and acting on signs of child abuse. We propose improvements in terms of staff training, resources and better systems to ensure HCPs respond to safeguarding concerns safely and appropriately.

Nosocomial COVID: the moral and clinical imperative for worldwide data collection and action.

There is a wide disparity worldwide in data collection and sharing of rates of hospital-acquired coronavirus disease (COVID). There is an ethical imperative that such information is systematically gathered, distributed and acted on to reduce rates of this form of preventable and devastating transmission during a pandemic.

Factors associated with variation in emergency diagnoses of cancer at general practice level in England.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients diagnosed following an emergency presentation have poorer outcomes. We explore whether practice characteristics are associated with differences in the proportion of emergency presentations. METHODS: Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the relationships between 2017-18 emergency cancer presentations at practice level in England and access and continuity in primary care, trust in healthcare professionals, 2-week-wait (2WW) referrals, quality and outcomes framework (QOF) achievements and socio-demographic factors (age, gender and deprivation). RESULTS: Our analysis using comprehensive nationwide data found that the following practice level factors have significant associations with a lower proportion of emergency diagnosis of cancer: increased trust and confidence in the practice healthcare professionals; higher 2WW referral and conversion rate; higher total practice QOF score and higher satisfaction with appointment times or higher proportion able to see preferred GP. Our results also show that practices in more deprived areas are significantly associated with a higher proportion of emergency diagnoses of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Regional cancer networks should focus their efforts in increasing both the quantity and appropriateness of 2WW referrals from primary care. In addition, primary care clinicians should be supported to undertake high quality consultations, thus building trust with patients and ensuring continuity of care.

Factors associated with wide variation in clinical litigation rates across acute NHS trusts in England: a cross-sectional analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Identify organizational factors associated with high clinical litigation rates among acute National Health Service (NHS) trusts in England. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis using routine data. SETTING: NHS trusts in England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 235 NHS trusts used the NHS Clinical Negligence Scheme in 2016-17. Ninety-seven trusts (41.3%) with no maternity services, 2 (0.9%) providing specialized services and 3 (1.2%) without clinical negligence claims were excluded. Hence, the remaining 133 trusts (56.6%) were included. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rate of clinical litigation by trust per 100 000 occupied bed days. RESULTS: The mean rate of clinical litigation was 25.4 per 100 000 occupied bed days. In univariable analyses, higher values of summary hospital-level mortality indictor, staff sickness, written complaints, patient safety incidents and being in the North of England led to increased clinical litigation rates. Conversely, higher patient admissions, NHS Staff Survey overall engagement score and occupied bed days led to decreased clinical litigation rates. In the multivariable model, factors associated with increased clinical litigation rates were as follows: summary mortality hospital-level indicator (SHMI) (0.9 increase in litigation rate per 0.05 increase in SHMI; P = 0.012); new written complaints (0.62 increase per 50 complaints higher; P < 0.001); located in the North of England compared to London (5.22 higher; P < 0.001). Conversely, a higher number of occupied bed days (-0.64 change per 50 000 days higher; P = 0.007) was associated with lower clinical litigation rates. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified organizational factors associated with clinical litigation, which will be of interest to clinicians and the NHS. This research also highlights areas for further investigation.

Defining Health in the Era of Value-based Care: Lessons from England of Relevance to Other Health Systems.

The demand for healthcare is rising due to aging populations, rising chronic disease prevalence, and technological innovations. There are currently more effective and cost-effective interventions available than can be afforded within limited budgets. A new way of thinking about the optimal use of resources is needed. Ensuring that available resources are used for interventions that provide outcomes that patient's most value, rather than a focus just on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, may help to ensure that resources are used optimally. Value-based healthcare puts what patients value at the center of healthcare. It helps ensure that they receive the care that can provide them with outcomes they think are important and that limited resources are focused on high-value interventions. In order to do this, we need flexible definitions of 'health', personalized and tailored to patient values. We review the current status of value-based health care in England and identify lessons applicable to a variety of health systems. For this, we draw upon the work of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the National Health Service (NHS), Right Care Initiative, and our local experience in promoting value-based health care for specific conditions in our region. Combining the best available evidence with open and honest dialogue between patients, clinicians, and others, whilst requiring considerable time and resources are essential to building a consensus around the value that allows the best use of limited budgets. Values have been present in healthcare since its beginnings. Placing value and values at the center of healthcare could help to ensure available resources are used to provide the greatest possible benefit to patients.

"I won't call it rationing...": an ethnographic study of healthcare disinvestment in theory and practice.

Healthcare decision-makers have always faced the challenge of allocating finite resources, but the global economic downturn places extra pressure on health systems to meet rising demands. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and UK government have therefore called on commissioners to consider opportunities for 'disinvestment'- the cessation or restriction of health-care practices, and subsequent shift of resources to higher value care. However, there are no clear guidelines on how to approach disinvestment, and little is known about how this is tackled in practice. This paper presents results from a study that used ethnographic methods to investigate how disinvestment is understood and enacted. Eight routine local-level commissioning meetings where resource allocation decisions were discussed were observed over one year in two demographically contrasting regions of England. 28 interviews accompanied observations, conducted with purposefully-sampled professionals who were involved in, or potentially impacted by, disinvestments. Analysis of interviews/meeting recordings was undertaken using constant comparison methods, complemented by observational field notes. We found variation in informants' reported definitions of disinvestment, and an absence of disinvestment decision-making in observed meetings. Observations and interviews showed evidence of practical and ideological barriers to disinvestment, including an absence of tools and capacity, difficulties in collaboration and communication, a reluctance to engage in explicit rationing, and a perceived lack of central/political support. These findings support the need for the development of methods to encourage and guide disinvestment, including a clear definition of what 'disinvestment' entails. Crucially, disinvestment needs to be a collaborative effort, involving health-care providers and commissioners in decision-making processes.

Is mortality a good indicator of the clinical quality of National Health Service hospitals? A cross-sectional study of outlier trusts for mortality indices using quality dashboards.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed whether the 14 National Health Service (NHS) acute trusts reviewed by Sir Bruce Keogh in July 2013 were performance outliers on the Acute Trust Quality Dashboard (ATQD) and examined whether high mortality indices results are associated with increased numbers of quality risk alerts and alarms. DESIGN: The proportion of dashboard indicators rated amber or red in the Keogh Review trust group was compared with that for all trusts. Quality performance at primary care level was assessed for lead Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG) of Keogh Review trusts through the national General Practice High Level Indicators. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: The study examined the performance of all acute NHS trusts in England and the performance of the lead CCGs for all acute NHS trusts included in the Keogh Review. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was the proportion of alerts and alarms identified in the summer 2013 ATQD. RESULTS: The mean proportion of indicators scored as alert or alarm across all trusts was 14.1% (13.5-14.7%). For Keogh Review trusts, the mean was 14.5% (12.6-16.4%). There was no significant difference between Keogh Review trusts and all acute trusts in numbers of alerts or alarms or for lead CCG quality performance. CONCLUSION: This study finds no evidence to suggest the trusts reviewed by Sir Bruce Keogh in spring 2013 were outliers for overall quality of care as defined by the ATQD. The use of mortality indices alone to identify potential quality outliers in secondary care may not be sufficient.

Severe acute maternal morbidity in a high-income developing multiethnic country.

With declining maternal mortality, the study of severe acute maternal morbidity (SAMM) provides an opportunity to measure the quality of maternal care and to identify ways to improve it. The objective was to study the epidemiology of severe acute maternal morbidity in a high income, rapidly developing, multiethnic country in the Middle East, and to determine the role of ethnicity in maternal morbidity. We included all births occurring in maternal units with more than 500 births a year over a 6 year period in Abu Dhabi emirate, the largest province of the United Arab Emirates. Data on SAMM was collected retrospectively for the first 3 years and prospectively for the later 3 years. A clinical criteria based approach was used to define SAMM. Over the 6 year period there were 122,705 deliveries, and a total of 926 cases of SAMM were identified. The SAMM to births ratio was 7.5/1,000 deliveries. The leading cause of maternal morbidity was hypertensive disorders (59.5 %) followed by hemorrhage (39.6 %). There were clear ethnic differences. Preeclampsia was significantly higher in women from the Indian sub-continent and hemorrhage was more prevalent in UAE women. We have shown that it is possible to use a clinical criteria based approach to study the epidemiology of SAMM. The leading contributors to SAMM were hypertensive disorders and hemorrhage with clear ethnic links supporting earlier reports of a complex interaction between ethnicity, socioeconomic status and maternal health.

Confidential enquiries into maternal mortality in the United Arab Emirates: a feasibility study.

AIM: Routine confidential enquiry into maternal deaths is not yet part of the United Arab Emirates health care system. A confidential enquiry into maternal deaths was undertaken to test the feasibility of this approach and to identify the causes and preventability of maternal deaths. MATERIAL & METHODS: Data on all maternal deaths over a six year period from 1998 to 2003 were abstracted and reviewed by a panel of experts to assign the cause if in doubt, and to determine whether the deaths were preventable. RESULTS: Over the six year period, 26 deaths were identified with 122,075 births and the maternal mortality ratio was 21.2/100,000 live births. The mean maternal age at death was 32.3 years and two-thirds of the deaths occurred during the postpartum period. The leading causes of death were thromboembolic events, hemorrhage and infection. After reviewing the clinical data the expert panel concluded that one third of the deaths were avoidable. CONCLUSION: This first ever confidential enquiry has shown that it is feasible to adopt this approach in the United Arab Emirates and the causes identified would be of help in prioritizing clinical guidelines development and training programs aimed at professionals, which will ultimately lead to safer motherhood for women.

Colposcopy services in the United Arab Emirates.

BACKGROUND: United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a young country with a population of 3 million, an abundant oil wealth, and a high standard of living. There is no organized cervical screening program, but the authorities are planning to introduce one soon. OBJECTIVE: To study the availability and quality of colposcopy services. METHODS: A questionnaire survey of all gynecologists in the major government and private hospitals in the country. RESULTS: Twenty government hospitals offer obstetrics and gynecology services, 11 governments and 4 private hospitals have colposcopy services. Of the 52 specialists performing colposcopy, 8 had adequate training, 3 had formal recognition, and 3 had long-term experience. The number of cases seen per doctor varies from 10 to 100 a year, with a mean and median of 28 and 15, respectively. Three units had the required basic colposcopy equipment for diagnosis and treatment. Only 1 unit performs audit. CONCLUSIONS: Colposcopy service is widely available in many hospitals in the United Arab Emirates, but substantial variation exists in clinical standards and needs more organization and standardization.

Characteristics of Primary Care Trusts in financial deficit and surplus - a comparative study in the English NHS.

BACKGROUND: Recently the financial status of primary care trusts has come under considerable scrutiny by the government, and financial deficits have been blamed on poor local management of resources. This paper examines the factors that differ between those Primary Care Trusts (PCT) in financial deficit and those in surplus, using readily available data at PCT level. PCTs are the National Health Service organisations in England responsible for improving the health of their population, developing primary and community health services, and commissioning secondary care services. METHODS: A descriptive comparative study using data from 58 PCTs; 29 in greatest financial surplus and 29 in greatest deficit in the English National Health Service. RESULTS: Nearly half the study deficit PCTs (14 out of 29) are in the East of England and of the 29 surplus PCTs, five each are in Birmingham and Black Country Strategic Health Authority (SHA), and Greater Manchester SHA. The median population density of the deficit PCTs is almost seven times lower than that of surplus PCTs (p = 0.004). Surplus PCTs predominantly serve deprived communities. Nearly half the surplus PCTs are 'spearhead' PCTs compared to only one of the deficit PCTs. Percentage population increase by local authority of the PCT showed that on average deficit PCTs had 2.7 times higher change during 1982-2002 (13.37% for deficit and 4.94% for surplus PCTs). Work pressure felt by staff is significantly higher in deficit PCTs, and they also reported working higher amount of extra hours due to work pressures. The proportion of dispensing general practitioners is significantly higher in deficit PCTs 40.5% vs. 12.9% (p = 0.002). Deficit PCTs on average received pound123 less per head of registered population compared to surplus PCTs. CONCLUSION: The two groups of PCTs serve two distinct populations with marked differences between the two. Deficit PCTs tend to be in relatively affluent and rural areas. Poor management alone is unlikely to be the cause of deficits, and potential reasons for deficits including rurality and increased demand for health services in more affluent communities need further in-depth studies.