A multifaceted approach to explain short- and long-term PM2.5 concentration changes in Northeast Asia in the month of January during 2016-2021.

Changes in PM2.5 concentrations are influenced by interwoven impacts of key drivers (e.g., meteorology, local emissions, and regional emissions). However, it is challenging to quantitatively disentangle their impacts individually at once. Therefore, we introduced a multifaceted approach (i.e., meteorology vs. emissions and self-contribution vs. long-range transport) to analyze the effects of major drivers for long- and short-term PM2.5 concentration changes based on observation and simulation in the month of January during 2016-2021 in Northeast Asia. For the simulations, we conducted modeling with the WRF-CMAQ system. The observed PM2.5 concentrations in China and South Korea in January 2021 decreased by 13.7 and 9.8 µg/m3, respectively, compared to those in January 2016. Emission change was the dominant factor to reduce PM2.5 concentrations in China (-115%) and South Korea (-74%) for the 6 years. However, the short-term changes in PM2.5 concentrations between January of 2020-2021 were mainly driven by meteorological conditions in China (-73%) and South Korea (-68%). At the same time, in South Korea located in downwind area, the impact of long-range transport from upwind area (LTI) decreased by 55% (9.6 µg/m3) over the 6 years whereas the impact of local emissions increased (+2.9 µg/m3/year) during 2016-2019 but decreased (-4.5 µg/m3/year) during 2019-2021. Additionally, PM2.5 concentrations in the upwind area showed a positive relationship with LTIs. However, for the days when westerly winds became weak in the downwind area, high PM2.5 concentrations in upwind area did not lead to high LTIs. These results imply that the decline of PM2.5 concentrations in South Korea was significantly affected by a combination of emission reduction in upwind area and meteorological conditions that hinder long-range transport. The proposed multifaceted approach can identify the main drivers of PM2.5 concentration change in a region by considering the regional characteristics.

An observation-based adjustment method of regional contribution estimation from upwind emissions to downwind PM2.5 concentrations.

We propose a method to adjust contributions from upwind emissions to downwind PM2.5 concentrations to account for the differences between observed and simulated PM2.5 concentrations in an upwind area. Emissions inventories (EI) typically have a time lag between the inventory year and the release year. In addition, traditional emission control policies and social issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic cause steady or unexpected changes in anthropogenic emissions. These uncertainties could result in overestimation of the emission impacts of upwind areas on downwind areas if emissions used in modeling for the upwind areas were larger than the reality. In this study, South Korea was defined as the downwind area while other regions in Northeast Asia including China were defined as the upwind areas to evaluate applicability of the proposed adjustment method. We estimated the contribution of emissions released from the upwind areas to PM2.5 concentrations in South Korea from 2015 to 2020 using a three-dimensional photochemical model with two EIs. In these two simulations for 2015-2020, the annual mean foreign contributions differed by 4.1-5.5 µg/m3. However, after adjustment, the differences decreased to 0.4-1.1 µg/m3. The adjusted annual mean foreign contributions were 12.7 and 8.8 µg/m3 during 2015-2017 and 2018-2020, respectively. Finally, we applied the adjustment method to the COVID-19 pandemic period to evaluate the applicability for short-term episodes. The foreign contribution of PM2.5 during the lockdown period in China decreased by 30% after adjustment and the PM2.5 normalized mean bias in South Korea improved from 15% to -4%. This result suggests that the upwind contribution adjustment can be used to alleviate the uncertainty of the emissions inventory used in air quality simulations. We believe that the proposed upwind contribution adjustment method can help to correctly understand the contributions of local and upwind emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in downwind areas.

Role of emissions and meteorology in the recent PM2.5 changes in China and South Korea from 2015 to 2018.

In this study, we examined the change rates of PM2.5 concentrations, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and the concentrations of PM2.5 precursors, such as SO2 and NO2, in China and South Korea using surface and satellite observations from 2015 to 2018. To quantify the impacts of the emissions and meteorology on the concentration changes, we performed a series of air quality simulations with year-specific meteorology and a fixed anthropogenic emissions inventory. The surface PM2.5 observations in China and South Korea decreased at rates of 9.1 and 4.3%/yr during the study period, respectively. The AODs from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) also decreased faster over China than the AODs over South Korea. For the PM2.5 decrease in China, the emission impact was more significant (73%) than the meteorology impact (27%). On the contrary, in South Korea, the emissions and meteorology impacts on PM2.5 reductions were similar (51% vs 49%). The SO2 concentration over China in 2018 significantly reduced to approximately half of the level in 2015. In turn, the sulfate concentration in Baengnyeong (BN), located in a downwind pathway from China to South Korea, decreased at a rate of 0.79%/month. However, the nitrate concentration in BN showed an increasing trend due to the non-linear chemical reactions among sulfate-nitrate-ammonium. The increased nitrate compensated for the reduced PM2.5 concentration from the sulfate decrease at BN. Additionally, the number of high (>50 µg/m3) PM2.5 concentration days continuously decreased in China, but the number in South Korea increased. It is noted that emission reductions in an upwind area do not guarantee corresponding air quality improvement in the downwind area when complex secondary aerosol formation processes, as well as spatiotemporal changes in meteorology, are involved in the transboundary transport of air pollutants.

The impacts of COVID-19, meteorology, and emission control policies on PM2.5 drops in Northeast Asia.

In January 2020, anthropogenic emissions in Northeast Asia reduced due to the COVID-19 outbreak. When outdoor activities of the public were limited, PM2.5 concentrations in China and South Korea between February and March 2020 reduced by - 16.8 µg/m3 and - 9.9 µg/m3 respectively, compared with the average over the previous three years. This study uses air quality modeling and observations over the past four years to separate the influence of reductions in anthropogenic emissions from meteorological changes and emission control policies on this PM2.5 concentration change. Here, we show that the impacts of anthropogenic pollution reduction on PM2.5 were found to be approximately - 16% in China and - 21% in South Korea, while those of meteorology and emission policies were - 7% and - 8% in China, and - 5% and - 4% in South Korea, respectively. These results show that the influence on PM2.5 concentration differs across time and region and according to meteorological conditions and emission control policies. Finally, the influence of reductions in anthropogenic emissions was greater than that of meteorological conditions and emission policies during COVID-19 period.

Recent increase of surface particulate matter concentrations in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

Recent changes of surface particulate matter (PM) concentration in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), South Korea, are puzzling. The long-term trend of surface PM concentration in the SMA declined in the 2000s, but since 2012 its concentrations have tended to incline, which is coincident with frequent severe hazes in South Korea. This increase puts the Korean government's emission reduction efforts in jeopardy. This study reports that interannual variation of surface PM concentration in South Korea is closely linked with the interannual variations of wind speed. A 12-year (2004-2015) regional air quality simulation was conducted over East Asia (27-km) and over South Korea (9-km) to assess the impact of meteorology under constant anthropogenic emissions. Simulated PM concentrations show a strong negative correlation (i.e. R = -0.86) with regional wind speed, implying that reduced regional ventilation is likely associated with more stagnant conditions that cause severe pollutant episodes in South Korea. We conclude that the current PM concentration trend in South Korea is a combination of long-term decline by emission control efforts and short-term fluctuation of regional wind speed interannual variability. When the meteorology-driven variations are removed, PM concentrations in South Korea have declined continuously even after 2012.