The Value of Ischemic Cardiac Biomarkers to Predict Spontaneous Breathing Trial or Extubation Failure: A Systematic Review.

Background: It is unclear whether other cardiac biomarkers than NT-proBNP can be useful in the risk stratification of patients weaning from mechanical ventilation. The aim of this study is to summarize the role of ischemic cardiac biomarkers in predicting spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) or extubation failure. Methods: We systematically searched Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central for studies published before January 2024 that reported the association between ischemic cardiac biomarkers and SBT or extubation failure. Data were extracted using a standardized form and methodological assessment was performed using the QUIPS tool. Results: Seven observational studies investigating four ischemic cardiac biomarkers (Troponin-T, Troponin-I, CK-MB, Myoglobin) were included. One study reported a higher peak Troponin-I in patients with extubation failure compared to extubation success (50 ng/L [IQR, 20-215] versus 30 ng/L [IQR, 10-86], p = 0.01). A second study found that Troponin-I measured before the SBT was higher in patients with SBT failure in comparison to patients with SBT success (100 ± 80 ng/L versus 70 ± 130 ng/L, p = 0.03). A third study reported a higher CK-MB measured at the end of the SBT in patients with weaning failure (SBT or extubation failure) in comparison to weaning success (8.77 ± 20.5 ng/mL versus 1.52 ± 1.42 ng/mL, p = 0.047). Troponin-T and Myoglobin as well as Troponin-I and CK-MB measured at other time points were not found to be related to SBT or extubation failure. However, most studies were underpowered and with high risk of bias. Conclusions: The association with SBT or extubation failure is limited for Troponin-I and CK-MB and appears absent for Troponin-T and Myoglobin, but available studies are hampered by significant methodological drawbacks. To more definitively determine the role of ischemic cardiac biomarkers, future studies should prioritize larger sample sizes, including patients at risk of cardiac disease, using stringent SBTs and structured timing of laboratory measurements before and after SBT.

Blood and Imaging Biomarkers in the Long-term Follow-up of Bicuspid Aortic Valve Patients.

Background: Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is a common congenital heart defect. Patients with BAV are at risk for long-term complications such as valve stenosis and regurgitation. This study aimed to investigate sex differences in blood and imaging biomarkers and to describe the long-term prognostic value of blood and echocardiographic biomarkers. Methods: Patients were included from 2 prospective observational cohort studies; they underwent venous blood sampling and transthoracic echocardiography including speckle tracking. Analyzed blood biomarkers were red-cell distribution width (RDW), creatinine, C-reactive protein (CRP), troponin T, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-ß). Sex differences were analyzed at baseline. Associations between biomarkers and arrhythmia-free and intervention-free survival were determined by Cox regression, adjusted for age and sex. Results: A total of 182 patients with BAV were included: median age 34; interquartile range [IQR]: 23-46 years; 55.5% male. CRP, NT-proBNP, and RDW were higher in women, whereas creatinine, troponin T and TGF-ß were higher among men. After a median follow-up time of 6.9 (IQR: 6.5-9.9) years, arrhythmia-free and intervention-free survival was, 81.0% and 73.1%, respectively. NT-proBNP was associated with both arrhythmia-free and intervention-free survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94, P = 0.005 and HR, 2.06, P = 0.002, respectively). On echocardiography higher left atrial (LA) size, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), left ventricular (LV) mass index and E/e' ratio were associated with lower arrhythmia-free survival, whereas higher LA size, LV mass index, aortic valve peak velocity, and aortic regurgitation were associated with lower intervention-free survival. Conclusions: Differences were observed in blood biomarkers between men and women with BAV. Besides LV systolic parameters, diastolic LV function and NT-proBNP should have a more prominent role as prognostic markers in clinical care.

Contexte: La bicuspide valvulaire aortique (BVA) est une anomalie cardiaque congénitale fréquente. Les patients atteints d'une BVA présentent des risques de complications à long terme, comme la sténose valvulaire ou la régurgitation valvulaire. Cette étude visait 1) à évaluer les différences entre les sexes en ce qui concerne les biomarqueurs sanguins et les biomarqueurs à l'imagerie; et 2) à décrire la valeur pronostique à long terme des biomarqueurs sanguins et échocardiographiques. Méthodologie: Des patients de 2 études de cohortes observationnelles prospectives ont été inclus dans l'analyse. Des échantillons de sang veineux ont été prélevés, et des échocardiographies transthoraciques, y compris le suivi des marqueurs acoustiques, ont été effectuées. Les biomarqueurs sanguins analysés étaient les suivants : indice de distribution des globules rouges (IDR), créatinine, protéine C-réactive (CRP), troponine T, propeptide natriurétique de type B N-terminal (NT-proBNP) et facteur de croissance transformant ß (TGF-ß). Les différences entre les sexes ont été analysées au départ. Les liens entre les biomarqueurs et la survie sans arythmie et sans intervention ont été déterminés par la régression de Cox, avec correction en fonction de l'âge et du sexe. Résultats: Cent quatre-vingt-deux patients présentant une BVA étaient inclus (âge médian de 34 [écart interquartile : 23-46] ans, 55,5 % hommes). La CRP, la NT-proBNP et l'IDR étaient plus élevées chez les femmes, alors que la créatinine, la troponine T et le TGF-ß étaient plus élevés chez les hommes. Après une période de suivi médiane de 6,9 (écart interquartile : 6,5-9,9) ans, les taux de survie sans arythmie et sans intervention étaient respectivement de 81,0 % et de 73,1 %. La NT-proBNP a été associée à la survie sans arythmie (rapport des risques instantanés [RRI] : 1,94, p = 0,005) et à la survie sans intervention (RRI : 2,06, p = 0,002). À l'échocardiographie, des valeurs élevées pour la taille de l'oreillette gauche, le diamètre télédiastolique du ventricule gauche (VG), l'indice de masse du VG et le rapport E/e' étaient associées à un faible taux de survie sans arythmie, alors que des valeurs élevées pour la taille de l'oreillette gauche, l'indice de masse du VG, la vitesse maximale aortique et la régurgitation aortique étaient associées à un faible taux de survie sans intervention. Conclusions: Les biomarqueurs sanguins variaient en fonction du sexe des personnes présentant une BVA. Outre les paramètres systoliques du VG, la fonction VG diastolique et la NT-proBNP devraient être davantage utilisées comme marqueurs pronostiques en soins cliniques.

Heart rate: an accessible risk indicator in adult congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Higher resting heart rate has been described as a risk factor for adverse outcome in healthy individuals and cardiovascular patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate resting heart rate as risk factor in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study, patients with moderate or complex ACHD were included at routine outpatient visit. Standard 12-lead ECGs were obtained in rest. Heart rate was obtained from the ECG automatically by the Modular ECG Analysis System (MEANS). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality and heart failure. Survival was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Subgroups based on heart rate tertiles were compared by the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for clinical factors including age, sex and diagnosis (moderate vs complex ACHD). RESULTS: A total of 556 patients were included (median age 32 years (IQR 24-41), 57.6% male). Mean heart rate was 69±13 bpm. Negative chronotropic medication was used by 74 (13.3%) patients. During a median follow-up of 10.1 (IQR 9.6-10.5) years, 36 patients (6.5%) died and 83 (14.9%) reached the secondary endpoint. Patients with higher heart rates had significantly lower survival and heart failure-free survival. After adjusting for clinical factors, heart rate remained associated with mortality (HR 1.57 per 10 bpm, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.96) and mortality or heart failure (HR 1.33 per 10 bpm, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.57). CONCLUSION: Higher heart rate is associated with lower survival and heart failure-free survival in ACHD.

Tuning and external validation of an adult congenital heart disease risk prediction model.

AIMS: Adequate risk prediction can optimize the clinical management in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). We aimed to update and subsequently validate a previously developed ACHD risk prediction model. METHODS AND RESULTS: A prediction model was developed in a prospective cohort study including 602 moderately or severely complex ACHD patients, enrolled as outpatients at a tertiary centre in the Netherlands (2011-2013). Multivariable Cox regression was used to develop a model for predicting the 1-year risks of death, heart failure (HF), or arrhythmia (primary endpoint). The Boston ACHD Biobank study, a prospectively enrolled cohort (n = 749) of outpatients who visited a referral centre in Boston (2012-2017), was used for external validation. The primary endpoint occurred in 153 (26%) and 191 (28%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts over median follow-up of 5.6 and 2.3 years, respectively. The final model included 5 out of 14 pre-specified predictors with the following hazard ratios; New York Heart Association class ≥II: 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.90], cardiac medication 2.52 (95% CI 1.72-3.69), ≥1 reintervention after initial repair: 1.56 (95% CI 1.09-2.22), body mass index: 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07), log2 N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (pmol/L): 1.48 (95% CI 1.32-1.65). At external validation, the model showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.83) and excellent calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.002; calibration slope = 0.99). CONCLUSION: These data support the validity and applicability of a parsimonious ACHD risk model based on five readily available clinical variables to accurately predict the 1-year risk of death, HF, or arrhythmia. This risk tool may help guide appropriate care for moderately or severely complex ACHD.

Prognostic value of C-reactive protein in adults with congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP) has been associated with outcomes in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). However, its prognostic value beyond N-terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) or troponin T remains unknown. We studied the temporal evolution of hs-CRP, as well as the relation between hs-CRP and adverse clinical outcomes independent of NT-proBNP and troponin T in patients with ACHD. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled 602 patients with ACHD (2011-2013) who underwent baseline and thereafter annual blood sampling during 4 years. Hs-CRP, hs-troponin T and NT-proBNP were measured. The primary endpoint was composed of death or heart failure (HF). Cox regression and Joint Modelling was used to relate 2log hs-CRP levels with the endpoint, with adjustment for baseline characteristics and (repeated) hs-troponin T and NT-proBNP measurements. RESULTS: Hs-CRP was measured at baseline in 591 patients, median age 33 years, 58% men, 90% New York Heart Association I with an average of 4.3 measurements per patient. Median follow-up was 5.9 (IQR 5.3-6.3) years (99.2% complete) and 69 patients met the endpoint. Higher baseline hs-CRP was independently associated with higher risk of death or HF (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.55). Hs-CRP increased over time prior to death or HF, and repeated hs-CRP measurements were associated with the endpoint, independent of repeated NT-proBNP and hs-troponin T (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.98). CONCLUSIONS: Hs-CRP carries incremental prognostic value for the risk of death or HF, beyond NT-proBNP and hs-troponin T. Hs-CRP increased prior to the occurrence of HF or death, supporting the role of inflammation in the clinical deterioration of patients with ACHD.

Evolution of blood biomarker levels following percutaneous atrial septal defect closure in adults.

BACKGROUND: We sought to assess the effects of percutaneous atrial septal defect (ASD) closure on blood biomarker levels that possibly reflect reverse cardiac remodeling. Therefore, this study investigated temporal changes in six blood biomarkers following percutaneous ASD closure in adults. METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study, adults with ASD type II scheduled for percutaneous closure were included (2012-2016). NT-proBNP, high-sensitive troponin-T (hs-TnT), high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) and galectin-3 were measured one day prior to ASD closure and one day, three months and one year post ASD closure, and changes were evaluated using paired T-tests. Echocardiographic measurements were obtained. RESULTS: Fifty patients were included (median age 50 years, 62% women, 32% NYHA II). At baseline, biomarker levels were elevated in a substantial number of patients; NT-proBNP n = 22 (45%), hs-TnT n = 6 (13%) hs-CRP n = 19 (40%), galectin-3 n = 5 (11%) and GDF n = 10 (23%). One day after ASD closure, significant increases of hs-TnT (median change (Δ) = 12 ng/L), hs-CRP (Δ = 1.9 mg/L), GDF-15(Δ = 129 pg/mL) and RDW (Δ = 0.1%) were observed, and a decrease in galectin-3 (Δ = -1.0 ng/mL). Consequently, 92% had at least one abnormal biomarker directly after closure. At three months biomarker levels returned to baseline, and while echocardiographic measures 1 year post closure were indicative of reverse cardiac remodeling, biomarker levels did not further decrease. CONCLUSION: Percutaneous ASD closure in adults leads to a direct increase in most blood biomarkers, in particular hs-CRP and hs-TnT. After three months, biomarkers returned to baseline levels and remained stable up to one year.

Prognostic Value of Serial High-Sensitivity Troponin T Measurements in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Single high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) measurement is predictive of cardiac events in adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD). We aimed to study the prognostic value of serial hs-TnT measurements in stable patients with ACHD. METHODS: In total, 602 consecutive patients with ACHD were enrolled in this prospective study (2011-2013). Blood sampling was performed at enrollment and thereafter yearly during scheduled visits, up to 4 years. Hs-TnT, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were measured. The composite primary endpoint was defined as all-cause mortality, heart failure, arrhythmia, hospitalization, cardiac (re)interventions, or thromboembolic events. The relationship between changes in serial hs-TnT and the primary endpoint was studied by joint models with adjustment for repeated NT-proBNP and eGFR. RESULTS: In 601 patients (median age, 33 [interquartile range, 25-41] years, 42% women, 90% NYHA I), at least 1 hs-TnT measurement was performed; a mean of 4.3 hs-TnT measurements per patient were collected. After a median follow-up of 5.8 [interquartile range, 5.3-6.3] years, 229 (38.1%) patients reached the primary endpoint. On average, hs-TnT levels increased over time, and more in patients who reached the primary endpoint (P < 0.001). A 2-fold higher hs-TnT was associated with the primary endpoint (unadjusted hazard ratio, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.44-1.82; P < 0.001). The association remained after adjustment for repeated eGFR but not when adjusted for repeated NT-proBNP; repeated NT-proBNP remained associated with the primary endpoint. CONCLUSION: In stable patients with ACHD, hs-TnT levels increased before the occurrence of an event and repeated hs-TnT was associated with the risk of adverse cardiac events. However, repeated hs-TnT was not superior to repeated NT-proBNP.

Growth differentiation factor-15 as candidate predictor for mortality in adults with pulmonary hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: Despite its predictive value for mortality in various diseases, the relevance of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) as prognostic biomarker in pulmonary hypertension (PH) remains unclear. This study investigated the association between GDF-15 and outcomes in adults with PH. METHODS: This is a single-centre prospective observational cohort study. All adults with PH were included at the day of their diagnostic right heart catheterisation between 2012 and 2016. PH due to left heart disease was excluded. Venous blood sampling was performed and included GDF-15 and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis were used to investigate the association between GDF-15 and a composite endpoint of death or lung transplantation. We adjusted for age and NT-proBNP in multivariable analysis. Reference values were established by GDF-15 measurements in healthy controls. RESULTS: GDF-15 was measured in 103 patients (median age 59.2 years, 65% women, 51% pulmonary arterial hypertension). GDF-15 was elevated in 76 patients (74%). After a median follow-up of 3.4 (IQR 2.3-4.6) years, 32 patients (31.1%) reached the primary endpoint. Event-free survival 2 years after diagnosis was 100% in patients with normal GDF-15 versus 72.4% in patients with elevated GDF-15 (p=0.007). A significant association was found between GDF-15 and the primary endpoint (HR per twofold higher value 1.77, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.27, p<0.001), also after adjustment for age and NT-proBNP (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.94, p=0.038). CONCLUSIONS: High GDF-15 levels are associated with an increased risk of death or transplant in adults with PH, independent of age and NT-proBNP. As non-specific biomarker, GDF-15 could particularly be useful to detect low-risk patients.

The Prognostic Value of Soluble ST2 in Adults with Pulmonary Hypertension.

Soluble ST2 (sST2) is upregulated in response to myocardial stress and may serve as biomarker in adults with pulmonary hypertension (PH). This prospective cohort study investigated sST2 levels and its association with echocardiographic and hemodynamic measures, and adverse clinical outcomes in adults with PH of different etiologies. sST2 was measured during the diagnostic right heart catheterization for PH, in adult patients enrolled between May 2012 and October 2016. PH due to left heart failure was excluded. The association between sST2 and a primary endpoint composed of death or lung transplantation and a secondary composite endpoint including death, lung transplantation or heart failure, was investigated using Cox regression with adjustment for NT-proBNP. In total 104 patients were included (median age was 59 years, 66% woman, 51% pulmonary arterial hypertension). Median sST2 was 28 [IQR 20-46] ng/mL. Higher sST2 was associated with worse right ventricular dysfunction and higher mean pulmonary and right atrial pressures. Median follow-up was 3.3 [IQR 2.3-4.6] years. The primary and secondary endpoint occurred in 33 (31.7%) and 43 (41.3%) patients, respectively. sST2 was significantly associated with both endpoints (HR per 2-fold higher value 1.53, 95%CI 1.12-2.07, p = 0.007 and 1.45, 95%CI 1.10-1.90, p = 0.008, respectively). However, after adjustment for NT-proBNP, both associations did not reach statistical significance. In conclusions, higher sST2 levels are associated with more severe PH and right ventricular dysfunction and yields prognostic value in adults with PH, although not independently of NT-proBNP.

Exploring the Prognostic Value of Novel Markers in Adults With a Systemic Right Ventricle.

Background Adults with a systemic right ventricle (sRV) have a high risk of cardiac complications. This study aimed to identify prognostic markers in adults with sRV based on clinical evaluation, echocardiography, and blood biomarkers. Methods and Results In this prospective cohort study, consecutive clinically stable adults with sRV caused by Mustard- or congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries were included (2011-2013). Eighty-six patients were included (age 37±9 years, 65% male, 83% New York Heart Association functional class I, 76% Mustard transposition of the great arteries, 24% congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries). Venous blood sampling was performed including N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitive-troponin-T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, growth differentiation factor-15, galectin-3, red cell distribution width, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin. Besides conventional echocardiographic measurements, longitudinal, circumferential, and radial strain were assessed using strain analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.9 (interquartile range 5.3-6.3) years, 19 (22%) patients died or had heart failure (primary end point) and 29 (34%) patients died or had arrhythmia (secondary end point). Univariable Cox regression analysis was performed using dichotomous or standardized continuous variables. New York Heart Association functional class >I, systolic blood pressure, and most blood biomarkers were associated with the primary and secondary end point (galectin-3 not for primary, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein not for secondary end point). Growth differentiation factor-15 showed the strongest association with both end points (hazard ratios; 2.44 [95% CI 1.67-3.57, P<0.001], 2.00 [95% CI 1.46-2.73, P<0.001], respectively). End-diastolic basal dimension of the subpulmonary ventricle was associated with both end points (hazard ratio: 1.95 [95% CI 1.34-2.85], P<0.001, 1.70 [95% CI 1.21-2.38, P=0.002], respectively). Concerning strain analysis, only sRV septal strain was associated with the secondary end point (hazard ratio 0.58 [95% CI 0.39-0.86], P=0.006). Conclusions Clinical, conventional echocardiographic, and blood measurements are important markers for risk stratification in adults with a sRV. The value of novel echocardiographic strain analysis seems limited.

The Prognostic Value of Myocardial Deformation in Adult Patients With Corrected Tetralogy of Fallot.

BACKGROUND: Adult patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) are at risk for complications such as heart failure and sudden cardiac death, and identifying high-risk patients is important. Reduced left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) function has been identified as a predictor of outcomes. However, LV ejection fraction is often preserved, and RV function is difficult to assess. With the introduction of strain analysis, an easy and more sensitive parameter became available. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between strain variables and cardiovascular events in patients with ToF. METHODS: Stable adult patients with repaired ToF were consecutively included in a prospective observational study between 2011 and 2013 (N = 151; median age, 33.2 years [interquartile range, 25.5-42.0 years]; 61.6% men). For the left ventricle, global longitudinal strain and apical and basal rotation were measured, and longitudinal strain was measured for the right ventricle. The primary endpoint was a composite of death or heart failure. The secondary endpoint was a composite of death, heart failure, arrhythmia, reintervention, or hospitalization for cardiac reasons. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 71.5 months (interquartile range, 64.0-75.3 months), the primary and secondary endpoints occurred in 14 (9%) and 62 (41%) patients, respectively. After adjusting for LV ejection fraction and LV global longitudinal strain, RV longitudinal strain remained independently associated with the primary endpoint in a ridge regression analysis. LV apical rotation remained independently associated with the secondary end point (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-0.98; P = .035) after adjusting for age, New York Heart Association functional class, QRS duration, LV ejection fraction, RV longitudinal strain, and LV global longitudinal strain. CONCLUSIONS: Myocardial deformation variables of both the left and right ventricles were associated with cardiovascular events in patients with ToF. LV and RV longitudinal strain and LV rotation should become part of the routine assessment of patients with ToF.

Prognostic value of soluble ST2 in adults with congenital heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: Soluble suppression of tumourigenicity-2 (sST2) is upregulated as response to myocardial stress and may be a potential biomarker for risk stratification in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). This study aimed to investigate the release of sST2 and its association with cardiovascular events in ACHD. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 602 consecutive patients with ACHD visiting the outpatient clinic were included (2011-2013). The association between sST2 and a primary composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, heart failure, hospitalisation, arrhythmia, thromboembolic events or cardiac interventions was investigated using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: sST2 was measured in 590 (98%) patients (median age 33 [25-41] years, 42% women). After a median follow-up of 5.8 [IQR 5.1-6.2) years, 225 (38.5%) reached the primary endpoint. sST2 was significantly associated with the primary endpoint when adjusted for age, sex, creatinine and N terminal pro-B type brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (HR per twofold higher sST2: 1.28, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.58, p=0.025). This association negated when adjusted for clinical variables and NT-proBNP (HR per twofold higher sST2: 1.19, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.48, p=0.106). Stratified analysis in complex ACHD did show a significant association between sST2 and the primary endpoint when adjusted for clinical variables and NT-proBNP (HR per twofold higher sST2: 1.31, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.69, p=0.043). Sex-specific analysis showed an association between sST2 and the primary endpoint in women (HR per twofold higher sST2 1.80, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.49, p<0.001) but not in men (HR per twofold higher sST2 1.19, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.56, p=0.223). CONCLUSIONS: sST2 is a promising novel biomarker in patients with ACHD, specifically in complex ACHD and women. Future research is warranted to elucidate sex-specific and diagnosis-specific differences.

Risk Factors for Pulmonary Hypertension in Adults After Atrial Septal Defect Closure.

Atrial septal defect (ASD) closure is performed to prevent pulmonary hypertension (PH), which is associated with poor outcome. This study investigated the prevalence of PH in adults before and after ASD closure and explored associations between patient characteristics and PH after ASD closure. Consecutive adult patients who underwent surgical or percutaneous ASD closure in the Erasmus MC, the Netherlands, were included (2000 to 2014). Echocardiograms before and after ASD closure were retrospectively assessed. Patients were categorized into 3 groups (no PH, possible PH, and PH) based on tricuspid regurgitation velocity (<2.9, 2.9 to 3.4, and ≥3.4 m/s) or mean pulmonary arterial pressure (<20, 20 to 24, and ≥25 mm Hg). Cox regression was performed to identify associations between patient characteristics and PH after ASD closure. Of the 244 eligible patients who underwent ASD closure, 198 (81%) had echocardiograms both before and median 15 (interquartile range 12 to 35) months after ASD closure (median age at closure 45 [interquartile range 30 to 57] years, 75% woman). The prevalence of PH was 13.1% (n = 26) before ASD closure and 5.0% (n = 10) after closure. New York Heart Association III to IV (hazard ratio [HR] 11.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.12 to 39.29, p <0.001), pulmonary disease (HR 10.43, 95% CI 2.12 to 51.21, p = 0.004), cardiac medication use (HR 3.96, 95% CI 1.02 to 15.34, p = 0.047), right ventricular fractional area change (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.93, p <0.001), and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.95, p = 0.018) were significantly associated with PH. In conclusion, adult patients with low pulmonary pressures before ASD closure are not at risk of PH after closure. Nevertheless, PH remained prevalent in approximately 5% of patients. Especially those patients with high New York Heart Association functional class, presence of pulmonary disease, cardiac medication use and impaired RV function at baseline are at risk.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model in patients with adult congenital heart disease.

AIMS: To develop and validate a clinically useful risk prediction tool for patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). METHODS AND RESULTS: A risk model was developed in a prospective cohort of 602 patients with moderate/complex ACHD who routinely visited the outpatient clinic of a tertiary care centre in the Netherlands (2011-2013). This model was externally validated in a retrospective cohort of 402 ACHD patients (Czech Republic, 2004-2013). The primary endpoint was the 4-year risk of death, heart failure, or arrhythmia, which occurred in 135 of 602 patients (22%). Model development was performed using multivariable logistic regression. Model performance was assessed with C-statistics and calibration plots. Of the 14 variables that were selected by an expert panel, the final prediction model included age (OR 1.02, 95%CI 1.00-1.03, p = 0.031), congenital diagnosis (OR 1.52, 95%CI 1.03-2.23, p = 0.034), NYHA class (OR 1.74, 95%CI 1.07-2.84, p = 0.026), cardiac medication (OR 2.27, 95%CI 1.56-3.31, p < 0.001), re-intervention (OR 1.41, 95%CI 0.99-2.01, p = 0.060), BMI (OR 1.03, 95%CI 0.99-1.07, p = 0.123), and NT-proBNP (OR 1.63, 95%CI 1.45-1.84, p < 0.001). Calibration-in-the-large was suboptimal, reflected by a lower observed event rate in the validation cohort (17%) than predicted (36%), likely explained by heterogeneity and different treatment strategies. The externally validated C-statistic was 0.78 (95%CI 0.72-0.83), indicating good discriminative ability. CONCLUSION: The proposed ACHD risk score combines six readily available clinical characteristics and NT-proBNP. This tool is easy to use and can aid in distinguishing high- and low-risk patients, which could further streamline counselling, location of care, and treatment in ACHD.

The prognostic value of various biomarkers in adults with pulmonary hypertension; a multi-biomarker approach.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of six different biomarkers in patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and to explore whether a multi-biomarker approach can contribute to a better risk stratification. METHODS: In this prospective study, patients with PH were included at the day of the diagnostic right heart catheterization between May 2012 and October 2016. Venous blood sampling included; NT-proBNP, high sensitive troponin-T, high sensitive CRP, galectin-3, red blood cell distribution width and eGFR. Associations between biomarker levels and the primary endpoint (death or lung transplantation) and secondary endpoint (death, lung transplantation or heart failure) were assessed with Cox regression, adjusted for age and sex. Additionally, adjustment for the REVEAL risk score was performed. RESULTS: In total, 106 patients were included (median age 58.7 [IQR 47.0-69.2] years, 64% women, 51% pulmonary arterial hypertension). After a median follow-up duration of 23.9 [IQR 15.1-40.0] months, respectively 29 and 37 patients reached the primary and secondary endpoint. All six biomarkers, except eGFR, were significantly associated with the endpoints. A multi-biomarker approach including the number of elevated biomarkers per patient, demonstrated that patients were at higher risk of adverse events as more biomarker levels were elevated (HR for each extra elevated biomarker; 1.33, 95% CI 1.07-1.64, P = .01). However, a single as well as a combination of multiple biomarkers, did not yield prognostic value independent of the REVEAL risk score. CONCLUSIONS: Various biomarkers are associated with the event-free survival in adults with PH. However, risk stratification exclusively based on single or a combination of biomarkers seems not superior to existing risk scores.

The prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension before and after atrial septal defect closure at adult age: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The development or persistence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) after atrial septal defect (ASD) closure at adult age is associated with a poor prognosis. The objective of this review was to investigate the prevalence of PAH before and after ASD closure and to identify factors that are associated with PAH. METHODS: EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched for publications until March 2017. All studies reporting the prevalence of PAH or data on pulmonary artery pressures both before and after surgical or percutaneous ASD closure in an adult population (≥16 years of age) were included. Papers were methodologically checked and data was visualized in tables, bar charts and plots. RESULTS: A total of 30 papers were included. The prevalence of PAH ranged from 29% to 73% before ASD closure and from 5% to 50% after closure; being highest in older studies, small study cohorts, and studies with high rates of loss to follow-up. The pooled systolic pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) was 43±13 before ASD closure and 32±10 after closure. The overall mean PAP was 34±10 before closure and 28±8 after closure. Studies with a higher mean PAP before closure and a higher mean age of the study cohort reported greater PAP reductions. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of PAH and mean pulmonary pressures decreased in all studies, regardless of the mean age or pulmonary pressures of the cohort. The reported prevalence of PAH after ASD closure is substantial, although widely varying (5%-50%), which is likely affected by selection of the study cohort.