A three-gene signature marks the time to locoregional recurrence in luminal-like breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Gene expression profiling (GEP)-based prognostic signatures are being rapidly integrated into clinical decision making for systemic management of breast cancer patients. However, GEP remains relatively underdeveloped for locoregional risk assessment. Yet, locoregional recurrence (LRR), especially early after surgery, is associated with poor survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: GEP was carried out on two independent luminal-like breast cancer cohorts of patients developing early (≤5 years after surgery) or late (>5 years) LRR and used, by a training and testing approach, to build a gene signature able to intercept women at risk of developing early LRR. The GEP data of two in silico datasets and of a third independent cohort were used to explore its prognostic value. RESULTS: Analysis of the first two cohorts led to the identification of three genes, CSTB, CCDC91 and ITGB1, whose expression, derived by principal component analysis, generated a three-gene signature significantly associated with early LRR in both cohorts (P value <0.001 and 0.005, respectively), overcoming the discriminatory capability of age, hormone receptor status and therapy. Remarkably, the integration of the signature with these clinical variables led to an area under the curve of 0.878 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.810-0.945]. In in silico datasets we found that the three-gene signature retained its association, showing higher values in the early relapsed patients. Moreover, in the third additional cohort, the signature significantly associated with relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.04-2.35). CONCLUSIONS: Our three-gene signature represents a new exploitable tool to aid treatment choice in patients with luminal-like breast cancer at risk of developing early recurrence.

Mammographic density to predict response to neoadjuvant systemic breast cancer therapy.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density (MD) is a risk factor for breast cancer (BC) development, and recurrence. However, its predictive value has been less studied. Herein, we challenged MD as a biomarker associated with response in patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy (NAT). METHODS: Data on all NAT treated BC patients prospectively collected in the registry of Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milano, Italy (2009-2019) were identified. Diagnostic mammograms were used to evaluate and score MD as categorized by the Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS), which identifies 4 levels of MD in keeping with relative increase of fibro-glandular over fat tissue. Each case was classified according to the following categories a (MD < 25%), b (26-50%), c (51-75%), and d (> 75%). The association between MD and pathological complete response (pCR), i.e., absence of BC cells in surgical specimens, was analyzed in multivariable setting used logistic regression models with adjustment for clinical and pathological variables. RESULTS: A total of 442 patients were analyzed, 120 of which (27.1%) attained a pCR. BI-RADS categories a, b, c, and d accounted for 10.0%, 37.8%, 37.1% and 15.2% of cases. Corresponding pCR were 20.5%, 26.9%, 30.5%, 23.9%, respectively. At multivariable analysis, when compared to cases classified as BI-RADS a, those with denser breast showed an increased likelihood of pCR with odds ratio (OR) of 1.70, 2.79, and 1.47 for b, c and d categories, respectively (p = 0.0996), independently of age, BMI [OR underweight versus (vs) normal = 3.76], clinical nodal and tumor status (OR T1/Tx vs T4 = 3.87), molecular subtype (HER2-positive vs luminal = 10.74; triple-negative vs luminal = 8.19). In subgroup analyses, the association of MD with pCR was remarkable in triple-negative (ORs of b, c and d versus a: 1.85, 2.49 and 1.55, respectively) and HER2-positive BC cases (ORs 2.70, 3.23, and 1.16). CONCLUSION: Patients with dense breast are more likely to attain a pCR at net of other predictive factors. The potential of MD to assist decisions on BC management and as a stratification factor in neoadjuvant clinical trials should be considered.

Factors influencing acute and late toxicity in the era of adjuvant hypofractionated breast radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: To evaluate toxicity in breast cancer patients treated with anthracycline and taxane based chemotherapy and whole breast hypofractionated radiotherapy, and to identify the risk factors for toxicity. METHODS AND MATERIALS: 537 early breast cancer patients receiving hypofractionated radiotherapy after conservative surgery were enrolled from April 2009 to December 2014, in an Italian cancer institute. The dose was 42.4 Gy in 16 daily fractions, 2.65 Gy per fraction. The boost to the tumor bed was administered only in grade III breast cancer patients and in patients with close or positive margins. Acute and late toxicity were prospectively assessed during and after radiotherapy according to RTOG scale. The impact of patients clinical characteristics, performed treatments and dose inhomogeneities on the occurrence of an higher level of acute skin toxicity and late fibrosis has been evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The mean age was 74 (range 46-91 yrs). 27% of patients received boost. 22% of cases (n = 119) received also chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 32 months. G1 and G2/G3 acute skin toxicity were 61.3% and 20.5% and G1 and G2/G3 late fibrosis 12.6% and 4.3% respectively. Chemotherapy (p = 0.04), diabetes (p = 0.04) and boost administration (p < 0.01) were found to be statistically significant on the occurrence of late fibrosis, but a multivariate analysis did not show any factors connected. The boost administration (p < 0.01), the breast volume (p = 0.05), dose inhomogeneities (p < 0.01) and boost volume (p = 0.04) were found to be statistically significant as concerns the occurrence of acute skin reaction at the univariate analysis, but only the boost administration (p = 0.02), at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study, according to the large randomized trials, confirmed that hypofractionated whole breast irradiation is safe, and only the boost administration seems to be an important predictor for toxicity. Chemotherapy does not impact on acute and late skin toxicity.

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types.

BACKGROUND: Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15-74 years in 1985-2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. RESULTS: The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon-rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.

Modelling obesity outcomes: reducing obesity risk in adulthood may have greater impact than reducing obesity prevalence in childhood.

A common policy response to the rise in obesity prevalence is to undertake interventions in childhood, but it is an open question whether this is more effective than reducing the risk of becoming obese during adulthood. In this paper, we model the effect on health outcomes of (i) reducing the prevalence of obesity when entering adulthood; (ii) reducing the risk of becoming obese throughout adult life; and (iii) combinations of both approaches. We found that, while all approaches reduce the prevalence of chronic diseases and improve life expectancy, a given percentage reduction in obesity prevalence achieved during childhood had a smaller effect than the same percentage reduction in the risk of becoming obese applied throughout adulthood. A small increase in the probability of becoming obese during adulthood offsets a substantial reduction in prevalence of overweight/obesity achieved during childhood, with the gains from a 50% reduction in child obesity prevalence offset by a 10% increase in the probability of becoming obese in adulthood. We conclude that both policy approaches can improve the health profile throughout the life course of a cohort, but they are not equivalent, and a large reduction in child obesity prevalence may be reversed by a small increase in the risk of becoming overweight or obese in adulthood.

Life expectancy and cancer survival in the EUROCARE-3 cancer registry areas.

BACKGROUND: Mortality information is essential for estimating relative cancer survival (that excludes deaths from other causes). However, sufficiently detailed mortality data are not available for all areas covered by the cancer registries (CRs) participating in the EUROCARE-3 study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mathematical methods were used to construct complete local mortality data (life tables) for each year of age (0-99), for each year (1978-2000) and by sex, from the incomplete life tables provided by CRs, presenting the results as life expectancy at birth (LE). Socio-economic data were obtained from the United Nations (UN) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). RESULTS: The time and regional trends in LE provided by our estimates are closely similar to those published by the UN at the country level. According to UN data, LE (men plus women) varied from 70 years in Estonia to almost 79 years in Sweden in the period 1995-1999. LE increased markedly over the 20-year study period in most countries except Estonia and Denmark. LE correlated directly with GDP, national expenditure on health and relative survival for all cancers combined. We found that within-country LE variation was large in some countries (particularly the UK). Sweden, Iceland, Switzerland, and parts of Spain and Italy had high LE; eastern European countries had low LE. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed area-specific life tables are essential for reliable estimation of relative cancer survival and its comparison across populations, since LE varies markedly across Europe. Where not available, life tables can be constructed to the required level of detail using mathematical approaches.