Assessing the driving role of the anthropogenic landscape on the distribution of the Xylella fastidiosa-driven "olive quick decline syndrome" in Apulia (Italy).

The plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a significant threat to various economically important tree cash crops. Although previously found only in the Americas, the bacterium responsible for olive quick decline syndrome was detected in Apulia, Italy, in 2013. Since then, it has spread to approximately 54,000 ha of olive trees in the region, causing dramatic concern throughout the Mediterranean basin. As a result, it is crucial to comprehend its distribution and forecast its potential diffusion. The effect of the anthropogenic component of the landscape on the distribution of Xf remains little explored. The present study used an ecological niche model to identify how different land uses, used as proxies of different levels of human pressure across the Apulia territory, impacted the distribution of the Xf-infected olive trees in 2015-2021. Results demonstrated that the anthropogenic component significantly contributed to the epidemic, with the road system representing the main driver of diffusion and natural/seminatural areas hampering Xf spread at the landscape scale. This evidence highlighted the importance of explicitly considering the effects of the anthropogenic landscape when modelling Xf distribution and support the design of landscape-informed monitoring strategies to prevent Xf spread in Apulia and other Mediterranean countries.

Estimating late spring frost-induced growth anomalies in European beech forests in Italy.

Weather extremes and extreme climate events, like late spring frosts, are expected to increase in frequency and duration during the next decades. Although spring phenology of European beech is well adapted to escape freeze damages on longer time scales, the effects of occasional late spring frosts (LSF) are among the main climatic damages to these forests to such an extent that they limit beech distribution and elevation range, especially at its southern margin. The aim of this work was to evaluate the short-term effects of two consecutive LSF events occurred in 2016 and 2017 in Italy on the beech forest vegetation activity. Remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) data were used to detect the pixels where LSF occurred, while enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data were used to quantify LSF effects by computing a spring vegetation activity anomaly index (sAI). In 2016 and 2017, the LSF covered, respectively, about 29% and 32% of the total Italian beech-dominated area. The two LSF widely differed in their spatial patterns and their effects. In 2016, the pixels belonging to the sAI classes with the highest spring anomalies were also those where prolonged LSF occur, while, in 2017, the pixels belonging to the highest sAI classes were those that underwent the shorter (but probably more intense) LSF events. Under scenarios of increased frequency risk of repeated LSF, the proposed methodology may represent an automatic and low-cost tool both for monitoring and predicting European beech growth patterns.

Exploring the role of land degradation on agricultural land use change dynamics.

The role that land-use and socioeconomic factors exert on consolidating land degradation (LD) processes is a major research issue. However, intensity and type of the impact played by LD on such land use factors is still underexplored. The present study investigates the role of LD on land-use change (LUC) trajectories of land abandonment (LA) and urban expansion (URB) in the three geographical repartitions (North, Centre, South) of Italy between 1990 and 2012, by means of the Environmental Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). ENFA is a multivariate approach originally introduced in the analysis of animal ecology allowing to compute habitat suitability (HS) models without requiring presence/absence data. Four environmental quality indices about climate (CQI), soil (SQI), vegetation (VQI) and land management (MQI) have been analyzed for the years 1990 and 2000 and related to the trajectories of LA and URB, respectively, for the time periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2012. Empirical results have indicated that different driving forces are linked to LA and URB, and that for each trajectory, the role of some forces may change over time. Evidence shows that soil quality and low human pressure represent the main drivers of LA. By contrast, as for URB, high human pressure represented the main driving factor throughout the country, both during 1990-2000 and 2000-2012. The HS maps show the probability arrangement of LA and URB in the three geographical repartitions. Starting from this work, further research is increasingly required to implement prediction models of future LA and URB trajectories according to the current land quality status.

Linking trajectories of land change, land degradation processes and ecosystem services.

Land Degradation (LD) is a complex phenomenon resulting in a progressive reduction in the capacity of providing ecosystem services (ES). Landscape transformations promoting an unsustainable use of land often reveal latent processes of LD. An evaluation carried out in respect to the different ecosystem services is nowadays regarded as the most appropriate approach for assessing the effects of LD. The aim of this study is to develop an evaluation framework for identifying the linkages between land changes, LD processes and ES and suggesting Sustainable Land Management (SLM) options suited to reverse (or mitigate) LD impact. A SWOT analysis was carried out with the aim to identify internal and external factors that are favorable (or unfavorable) to achieve the proposed SLM actions. The study areas are the Fortore valley and the Valpadana, in Italy. The main trajectory identified for the Fortore valley is related to land abandonment due to population aging and the progressive emigration started in the 1950s. The most relevant LD processes are soil erosion and geomorphological instability, affecting regulating services such as natural hazard and erosion control. SLM options should consider interventions to contrast geomorphological instability, the promotion of climate smart agriculture and of typical products, and an efficient water resources management. The main trajectories identified for Valpadana are related to urban expansion and farmland abandonment and, as a consequence, land take due to anthropogenic pressure and woodland expansion as the main LD process. The reduction of food production was identified as the most relevant provisioning service affected. SLM should envisage best practices finalized to water saving and soil consumption reduction: efficient irrigation solutions, climate smart agriculture and zero sealing practices. This study highlights the diagnostic value of the suggested approach where LD processes are elicited from land change trajectories determining specific impacts on ES and providing operational support for the implementation of SLM options.

Unraveling Landscape Complexity: Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Landscape Pattern Dynamics (1954-2008) in Contrasting Peri-Urban and Agro-Forest Regions of Northern Italy.

This study implements an exploratory data analysis of landscape metrics and a change detection analysis of land use and population density to assess landscape dynamics (1954-2008) in two physiographic zones (plain and hilly-mountain area) of Emilia Romagna, northern Italy. The two areas are characterized by different landscape types: a mixed urban-rural landscape dominated by arable land and peri-urban settlements in the plain and a traditional agro-forest landscape in the hilly-mountain area with deciduous and conifer forests, scrublands, meadows, and crop mosaic. Urbanization and, to a lesser extent, agricultural intensification were identified as the processes underlying landscape change in the plain. Land abandonment determining natural forestation and re-forestation driven by man was identified as the process of change most representative of the hilly-mountain area. Trends in landscape metrics indicate a shift toward more fragmented and convoluted patterns in both areas. Number of patches, the interspersion and juxtaposition index, and the large patch index are the metrics discriminating the two areas in terms of landscape patterns in 1954. In 2008, mean patch size, edge density, interspersion and juxtaposition index, and mean Euclidean nearest neighbor distance were the metrics with the most different spatial patterns in the two areas. The exploratory data analysis of landscape metrics contributed to link changes over time in both landscape composition and configuration providing a comprehensive picture of landscape transformations in a wealthy European region. Evidence from this study are hoped to inform sustainable land management designed for homogeneous landscape units in similar socioeconomic contexts.

The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study.

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.