Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces.

The enactment of COVID-19 policies in Canada falls under provincial jurisdiction. This study exploits time-series variation across four Canadian provinces to evaluate the effects of stricter COVID-19 policies on daily case counts. Employing data from this time-period allows an evaluation of the efficacy of policies independent of vaccine impacts. While both OLS and IV results offer evidence that more stringent Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) can reduce daily case counts within a short time-period, IV estimates are larger in magnitude. Hence, studies that fail to control for simultaneity bias might produce confounded estimates of the efficacy of NPIs. However, IV estimates should be treated as correlations given the possibility of other unobserved determinants of COVID-19 spread and mismeasurement of daily cases. With respect to specific policies, mandatory mask usage in indoor spaces and restrictions on business operations are significantly associated with lower daily cases. We also test the efficacy of different forecasting models. Our results suggest that Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (GBRT) and Seasonal Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models produce more accurate short-run forecasts relative to Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), and Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiology models. Forecasts from SIR models are also inferior to results from basic OLS regressions. However, predictions from models that are unable to correct for endogeneity bias should be treated with caution.

Quantitative evaluation of sebum lipid components with nuclear magnetic resonance.

A NMR spectroscopic method is described that enables the quantitation of specific lipid classes and components, independent of fatty acid composition. We demonstrate this method for measuring cholesterol, squalene, and pools of sterol esters, wax esters (WEs), and triglyceride (TG) components in sebum and meibum. When 600 MHz NMR equipment is used in conjunction with highly sensitive cryogenically cooled probes, this method has adequate sensitivity, and for some applications, advantages over commonly used HPLC-evaporative light-scattering detection and mass spectrometry-based approaches. This method is shown to be useful for preclinical and clinical monitoring of the efficacy of sebum-reducing agents in animals and humans. In Syrian hamsters, 3% topical flutamide and 20 mg/kg oral isotretinoin reduced sterol esters by 18.7% and 30.0%, respectively, and reduced WEs by 32.9% and 31.8%, respectively, as measured in a punch biopsy of the ear. In a 72 patient clinical methodology study, the assay delivered reproducible and noninvasive measurements of WEs, cholesteryl esters, TGs, and squalene from Sebutape skin blots. The quantitative results of sebum analysis obtained by the NMR method correlate well with those obtained with HPLC-based approaches. This approach may be broadly applicable to cases in which fatty acid-independent quantification of lipid classes is desired.

DFTMP, an NMR reagent for assessing the near-neutral pH of biological samples.

A new NMR chemical shift standard and pH indicator, difluorotrimethylsilanylphosphonic acid (DFTMP), is described, and the utility of this reagent is demonstrated for in situ determination of pH in complex biofluids. The pH dependence of this reagent allows accurate in situ determination of aqueous solution pH to within an RMSE of 0.02 pH units over a pH range of 5 to 8. Advantages of this reagent over previously described pH-sensitive components include (1) lack of metal binding affinity, (2) minimal disturbance of endogenous spectral regions, and (3) the potential to function as a multinuclear pH indicator and chemical shift reference point for 19F, 1H, and 31P nuclei. This reagent will be generally useful for NMR experiments on biological systems where the pH needs to be accurately measured at the moment of data acquisition.