A focused multi-state model to estimate the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic in Thailand, 2005-2025.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the magnitude of the HIV epidemic among children and youth living with HIV (CYHIV) aged 0-25 years in Thailand, projecting forward from 2005 to 2025, and identified underreported input parameters that influence epidemic projections, in order to inform future public health and research priorities. METHODS: We developed a focused multi-state transition model incorporating perinatally-acquired HIV and non-perinatally-acquired HIV, stratified by population, including men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), people who inject drugs (PWID), and the remainder of the population ("other"). We populated the model with published and programmatic data from the Thai national AIDS program when available. We projected the period from 2005-2025 and compared model results to programmatic data and projections from other models. In a scenario analysis, we projected the potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for MSM from 2018-2025. RESULTS: The initial 2005 cohort was comprised of 66,900 CYHIV; 8% CYHIV were <5 years, 21% were 5-14 years, and 71% were 15-25 years of age. By 2020, 94% were projected to be >15 years and infections among MSM constituted 83% of all new HIV infections. The numbers of CYHIV decreased over time, projected to reach 30,760 by 2020 (-54%) and 22,640 by 2025 (-66%). The proportion of all CYHIV aged 0-25 who were diagnosed and on ART increased from 37 to 60% over the 2005-2025 period. Projections were sensitive to variations in assumptions about initial HIV prevalence and incidence among MSM, PWID, and "other" youth. CONCLUSIONS: More data on incidence rates among sexual and gender minority youth and PWID are needed to characterize the role of specific exposures and key populations in the adolescent HIV epidemic. More accurate estimates will project shifts in population and inform more targeted interventions to prevent and care for Thai CYHIV.

What will it take to end AIDS in Asia and the Pacific region by 2030?

The 2016 global commitments towards ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 require the Asia-Pacific region to reach the Fast-Track targets by 2020. Despite early successes, the region is well short of meeting these targets. The overall stalled progress in the HIV response has been further undermined by rising new infections among young key populations and the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines the HIV situation, assesses the gaps, and analyses what it would take the region to end AIDS by 2030. Political will and commitments for ending AIDS must be reaffirmed and reinforced. Focused regional strategic direction that answers the specific regional context and guides countries to respond to their specific needs must be put in place. The region must harness the power of innovative tools and technology in both prevention and treatment. Community activism and meaningful community engagement across the spectrum of HIV response must be ensured. Punitive laws, stigma, and discrimination that deter key populations and people living with HIV from accessing health services must be effectively tackled. The people-centred public health approach must be fully integrated into national universal health coverage while ensuring domestic resources are available for community-led service delivery. The region must utilise its full potential and draw upon lessons that have been learnt to address common challenges of the HIV and COVID-19 pandemics and achieve the goal of ending AIDS by 2030, in fulfillment of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India's response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. METHODS: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. RESULTS: India's national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic.

Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India, 2010-2011.

This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010-2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included an Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, gender-ratio at birth, age and gender-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age-gender distribution of net migration were derived from census records, the Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35-0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24-0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22-0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions.

Spinal hydatidosis mimicking Guillain Barre syndrome: in case of doubt there is no rush to perform lumbar puncture.

Guillain Barre Syndrome (GBS) is a challenging pathology which diagnosis is based essentially on the clinical examination and the results of lumbar puncture. Differential diagnosis must be discussed if the clinical picture is not complete. We present the case of a patient who presented to the emergency department with symptoms evoking both GBS and spinal cord compression. The Radiology showed a diffused spinal hydatidosis. The lumbar puncture must be carefully considered. In this case, it would have exposed the patient to hydatid dissemination.