ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Patients with esophageal cancer can develop distant metastases between the start of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and planned surgery (ie, interval distant metastases). 18F-FDG PET/CT restaging after nCRT detects interval distant metastases in ~8% of patients. This study aimed to identify patients for whom 18F-FDG PET/CT restaging after nCRT could be omitted using an existing prediction model predicting for interval distant metastases or by using clinical stage groups. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer who underwent baseline and restaging 18F-FDG PET/CT, nCRT, and were planned for esophagectomy between 2017 and 2021 were eligible for inclusion in this retrospective study. The primary outcome was the existing model's external performance (ie, discrimination and calibration) for predicting interval distant metastases. The existing model predictors included tumor length, cN status, squamous cell carcinoma histology, and baseline SUVmax. The secondary outcome determined the clinical stage groups (AJCC/UICC eighth edition) for adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma for which the incidence of interval distant metastases was <10%. RESULTS: In total, 127 patients were included, of whom 17 patients developed interval distant metastases (13%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-21%) and 9 patients were deemed to have false-positive lesions on 18F-FDG PET/CT (7%; 95% CI, 2%-11%). Applying the existing model to this cohort yielded a discriminatory c-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI, 0.40-0.72). The calibration of the existing model was poor (ie, mostly underestimating the actual risk). The incidence of true-positive versus false-positive interval distant metastases for patients with clinical stage II disease was 5% versus 0%; clinical stage III, 14% versus 8%; and clinical stage IVa, 22% versus 9%. CONCLUSIONS: The existing prediction model cannot reliably identify patients at risk for developing interval distant metastases after nCRT for esophageal cancer. Omission of 18F-FDG PET/CT restaging after nCRT could be considered in patients with clinical stage II esophageal cancer.
