Explaining the fall in Coronary Heart Disease mortality in the Republic of Ireland between 2000 and 2015 - IMPACT modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the contribution of individual and population factors to Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) mortality rates in Ireland between 2000 and 2015. METHODS: The Irish IMPACT CHD model was utilized with CHD Deaths Prevented or Postponed (DPPs) as outcome. RESULTS: CHD mortality rates in Ireland in those aged 25-84 years fell by 56% (63% in women vs. men 53%), with 4060 fewer deaths than expected in 2015. Improvements in CHD risk factors explained ~30% of the decline (785 DPPs in men; 425 in women): [population systolic blood pressure (+25% DPPs), mean cholesterol serum levels (+11%) and smoking prevalence (+5%)]. Additional deaths attributable to rises in diabetes prevalence (-6%), BMI (-4%) and physical inactivity (-2%) negatively impacted DPPs. Increased uptake of cardiology treatments explained ~60% of the decline (1620 DPPs in men; 825 in women), particularly secondary prevention and heart failure treatments. Some 10% was unexplained. CONCLUSION: CHD mortality declined in Ireland between 2000 and 2015, with two-thirds attributable to increased uptake in cardiology treatments and only one-third to improvements in population risk factors, partly reflecting adverse trends in obesity, diabetes and physical inactivity. Additional investments in prevention policies and treatments will be necessary to reduce future CHD deaths.

Child Health Care in Ireland.

The Irish health care system is based on a complex and costly mix of private, statutory, and voluntary provisions. The majority of health care expenditure comes from the state, with a significant proportion of acute hospital care funded from private insurance, but there are relatively high out-of-pocket costs for most service users. There is free access to acute hospital care, but not for primary care, for all children. About 40% of the population have free access to primary care. Universal preventive public health services, including vaccination and immunization, newborn blood spot screening, and universal neonatal hearing screening are free. Major health challenges include poverty, obesity, drug and alcohol use, and mental health. The health care system has been dominated for the last 5 years by the impact of the current recession, which has led to very sharp cuts in health care expenditure. It is unclear if the necessary substantial reform of the system will happen. Government policy calls for a move toward a patient-centered, primary care-led system, but without very substantial transfers of resources and investment in Information and Communication Technology, this is unlikely to occur.

Overweight and obesity on the island of Ireland: an estimation of costs.

OBJECTIVES: The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity worldwide continues to compromise population health and creates a wider societal cost in terms of productivity loss and premature mortality. Despite extensive international literature on the cost of overweight and obesity, findings are inconsistent between Europe and the USA, and particularly within Europe. Studies vary on issues of focus, specific costs and methods. This study aims to estimate the healthcare and productivity costs of overweight and obesity for the island of Ireland in 2009, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. METHODS: Costs were estimated across four categories: healthcare utilisation, drug costs, work absenteeism and premature mortality. Healthcare costs were estimated using Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs). PAFs were applied to national cost data for hospital care and drug prescribing. PAFs were also applied to social welfare and national mortality data to estimate productivity costs due to absenteeism and premature mortality. RESULTS: The healthcare costs of overweight and obesity in 2009 were estimated at €437 million for the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and €127.41 million for NI. Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity was up to €865 million for ROI and €362 million for NI. The main drivers of healthcare costs are cardiovascular disease, type II diabetes, colon cancer, stroke and gallbladder disease. In terms of absenteeism, low back pain is the main driver in both jurisdictions, and for productivity loss due to premature mortality the primary driver of cost is coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: The costs are substantial, and urgent public health action is required in Ireland to address the problem of increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, which if left unchecked will lead to unsustainable cost escalation within the health service and unacceptable societal costs.

National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas. METHODS: A nationally representative cross-sectional Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007 was used to identify risk factors and develop a national and a subnational model of the risk of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed hypertension among adults aged 18+ years in the Republic of Ireland. The subnational model's group-specific risk estimates were applied to group-specific population count estimates for subnational areas to estimate the number of adults with doctor-diagnosed hypertension in subnational areas in 2007. A sub-sample of older adults aged 45+ years who also had their blood pressure objectively measured using a sphygmomanometer was used to estimate the national prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed hypertension among adults aged 45+ years. RESULTS: The prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed hypertension among adults aged 18+ years was 12.6% (95% CI = 11.7%-13.4%). After adjustment for other explanatory variables the risk of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed hypertension was significantly related to age (p < 0.001), body mass index (p < 0.001), smoking (p = 0.001) and fruit and vegetable consumption (p = 0.003). Among adults aged 45+ years the prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension (38.7% (95% CI 34.6%-42.8%)) was higher than self-reported, doctor-diagnosed hypertension (23.4% (95% CI = 22.0%-24.7%)). Among adults aged 45+ years, the prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension was higher among men (46.8%, 95% CI 41.2%-52.4%) than women (31.2%, 95% CI 25.7%-36.6%). There was no significant variation in the prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed hypertension across subnational areas. CONCLUSIONS: Services need to manage diagnosed hypertension cases and to detect and manage undiagnosed cases. Further population level improvements in lifestyle risk factors for hypertension are key in developing a more integrated approach to prevent cardiovascular disease. Better subnational data on hypertension outcomes and risk factors are needed to better describe the distribution of hypertension risk and hypertension prevalence in subnational areas.

Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project. METHODOLOGY: Routine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease. RESULTS: Overweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years. DISCUSSION: These findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.

Prevalence of diabetes in the Republic of Ireland: results from the National Health Survey (SLAN) 2007.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates of diabetes prevalence in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) are based on UK epidemiological studies. This study uses Irish data to describe the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed diabetes amongst all adults aged 18+ years and undiagnosed diabetes amongst those aged 45+ years. METHODS: The survey of lifestyle attitudes and nutrition (SLAN) 2007 is based on a nationally representative sample of Irish adults aged 18+ years (n = 10,364). Self-reported doctor-diagnosed diabetes was recorded for respondents in the full sample. Diabetes medication use, measured height and weight, and non-fasting blood samples were variously recorded in sub-samples of younger (n = 967) and older (n = 1,207) respondents. RESULTS: The prevalence of doctor-diagnosed diabetes amongst adults aged 18+ years was 3.5% (95% CI 3.1%-3.9%). After adjustment for other explanatory variables; the risk of self-reported doctor-diagnosed diabetes was significantly related to age (p < 0.0001), employment status (p = 0.0003) and obesity (p = 0.0003).Amongst adults aged 45+ years, the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed diabetes was 6.1% (95% CI 5.3% - 6.9% ) [corrected] and undiagnosed diabetes was 2.8% (95% CI 1.4% - 4.1%). This represented 31.2% of diabetes cases in this age group. CONCLUSION: Notwithstanding methodological differences, these prevalence estimates are consistent with those in the UK and France. However, the percentage of undiagnosed cases amongst adults aged 45+ years appears to be higher in the RoI. Increased efforts to improve early detection and population level interventions to address adverse diet and lifestyle factors are urgently needed.

Community perceptions of suspicious pigmented skin lesions: are they accurate when compared to general practitioners?

Community responses (n=925, response rate=71%) of a series of eight photographs of pigmented skin lesions were compared against those of general practitioners (n=114, response rate=77%), considered to be the most relevant gold standard. The eight photographs included three melanomas, two potentially malignant lesions and three benign pigmented lesions. Over the pool of lesions examined, the average probability that community members thought a lesion was likely to be skin cancer (0.68 [99% CI=0.66-0.69]) was higher (p<0.0001) than that of the comparison general practitioners 0.58 [99% CI=0.55-0.62]. This reflects a general (but not consistent) inflated propensity to over-diagnose among community members. The average probability that respondents indicated they would seek medical advice for a lesion was 0.71 [99% CI=0.70-0.73]. As expected, this was strongly associated with their perceptions of the skin lesion. These results suggest that the community can play a valuable role in assessing the need for medical evaluation of pigmented skin lesions.

Clinical diagnosis and management of suspicious pigmented skin lesions--a survey of GPs.

BACKGROUND: The ability of general practitioners to make important clinical decisions about the diagnosis and management of skin lesions is poorly understood. METHODS: A questionnaire on the diagnosis and management of eight photographed skin lesions was sent to 150 GPs in southeast Queensland. RESULTS: The questionnaire was completed by 114 GPs (response rate 77%). General practitioners' provisional diagnoses and management of photographed skin lesions were mostly or always correct, and there was general high consistency between diagnosis and intended management. Pigmented seborrhoeic keratoses were the most difficult lesions for GPs to diagnose correctly. Whether a lesion was different to usual moles appears to have the strongest association with clinical diagnosis. DISCUSSION: The high ability of GPs as measured in this artificial study is encouraging. The strong association between identifying moles that appear different to usual and correct clinical diagnoses suggest that unless GPs can increase the number of skin lesions they see as part of their typical workload, their clinical ability may not increase further.

Smoking behaviour among Indigenous secondary school students in North Queensland.

This study investigated smoking behaviour among Indigenous youth. A sample of schools (n = 12) in north Queensland with large proportions of Indigenous students was selected. Details about the prevalence of smoking behaviour in both Indigenous and non-Indigenous students (n = 883) were gathered. Data were also collected on the cultural, social, and psychological factors associated with cigarette smoking for Indigenous and non-Indigenous students. This survey indicated smoking rates for Indigenous and non-Indigenous students were 24% and 30%, respectively. The study found similarities between both groups regarding where they obtained their cigarettes (friends) and their reasons for not smoking (their parents and health). Results of this survey challenge the belief that Indigenous youth are significantly different in their smoking patterns and behaviours compared to non-Indigenous secondary school students in rural regions. It indicated the potential importance of school communities in promoting non-smoking behaviours among Indigenous students even in the face of strong normative pressures from elsewhere in the community. This survey can be used to monitor smoking prevalence among Indigenous secondary students in north Queensland, help guide the development of culturally appropriate school curriculum resources and contribute to the overall evaluation of smoking prevention and smoking cessation programs which are developed for Indigenous secondary school students.

The needs of cancer patients and their families from rural and remote areas of Queensland.

This study examines the impact of travelling for treatment on cancer patients and their families. Twenty-eight consecutive cancer patients, who were receiving radiation therapy treatment and 19 family carers, completed a structured needs assessment questionnaire and an in-depth interview. Both patients and carers reported moderate to high levels of unmet psychological need. Carers were found to have higher levels of anxiety than patients, although both groups had higher anxiety levels than the general population. Taking more responsibility for household tasks and organising new living arrangements for the family were the most frequently identified demands of a dual burden of caring. Nearly 40% of carers reported some disruption to their schedule and half reported experiencing financial difficulties. The qualitative interviews highlight the disruption that parents and children experience under the present system, particularly in relation to the demands of family life and the need to maintain some level of continuity and security for children.

Knowledge of the national emergency telephone number and prevalence and characteristics of those trained in CPR in Queensland: baseline information for targeted training interventions.

Members of the community contribute to survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest by contacting emergency medical services and performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) prior to the arrival of an ambulance. In Australia there is a paucity of information of the extent that community members know the emergency telephone number and are trained in CPR. A survey of Queensland adults (n=4490) was conducted to ascertain current knowledge and training levels and to target CPR training. Although most respondents (88.3%) could state the Australian emergency telephone number correctly, significant age differences were apparent (P<0.001). One in five respondents aged 60 years and older could not state the emergency number correctly. While just over half the respondents (53.9%) had completed some form of CPR training, only 12.1% had recent training. Older people were more likely to have never had CPR training than young adults. Additional demographic and socio-economic differences were found between those never trained in CPR and those who were. The results emphasise the need to increase CPR training in those aged 40 and over, particularly females, and to increase the awareness of the emergency telephone number amongst older people.