Assessing strategies to reconcile agriculture and bird conservation in the temperate grasslands of South America.

Globally, agriculture is the greatest source of threat to biodiversity, through both ongoing conversion of natural habitat and intensification of existing farmland. Land sparing and land sharing have been suggested as alternative approaches to reconcile this threat with the need for land to produce food. To examine which approach holds most promise for grassland species, we examined how bird population densities changed with farm yield (production per unit area) in the Campos of Brazil and Uruguay. We obtained information on biodiversity and crop yields from 24 sites that differed in agricultural yield. Density-yield functions were fitted for 121 bird species to describe the response of population densities to increasing farm yield, measured in terms of both food energy and profit. We categorized individual species according to how their population changed across the yield gradient as being positively or negatively affected by farming and according to whether the species' total population size was greater under land-sparing, land-sharing, or an intermediate strategy. Irrespective of the yield, most species were negatively affected by farming. Increasing yields reduced densities of approximately 80% of bird species. We estimated land sparing would result in larger populations than other sorts of strategies for 67% to 70% of negatively affected species, given current production levels, including three threatened species. This suggests that increasing yields in some areas while reducing grazing to low levels elsewhere may be the best option for bird conservation in these grasslands. Implementing such an approach would require conservation and production policies to be explicitly linked to support yield increases in farmed areas and concurrently guarantee that larger areas of lightly grazed natural grasslands are set aside for conservation.

Social and ecological change over a decade in a village hunting system, central Gabon.

Despite widespread recognition of the major threat to tropical forest biological diversity and local food security posed by unsustainable bushmeat hunting, virtually no long-term studies tracking the socioecological dynamics of hunting systems have been conducted. We interviewed local hunters and collected detailed hunting data to investigate changes in offtake and hunter characteristics over 10 years (2001-2010) in Dibouka and Kouagna villages, central Gabon, in the context of hunter recollections of longer term trends since the 1950s. To control for changes in hunter behavior, such as trap location and characteristics, we report hunting offtake data per trap. Our results suggest the hunting area was already highly depleted by 2001; local hunters reported that 16 large-bodied prey species had become rare or locally extirpated over the last 60 years. Overall, we observed no significant declines in hunting offtake or changes in species composition from 2001 to 2010, and offtakes per trap increased slightly between 2004 and 2010. However, trapping distance from the villages increased, and there was a switch in hunting techniques; a larger proportion of the catch was hunted with guns in 2010. The number of hunters declined by 20% from 2004 to 2010, and male livelihood activities shifted away from hunting. Hunters with the lowest hunting incomes in 2004 were more likely than successful hunters to have moved away from the village by 2010 (often in response to alternative employment opportunities). Therefore, changes in trap success (potentially related to biological factors) were interacting with system-level changes in hunter number and composition (related to external socioeconomic factors) to produce a relatively static overall offtake. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the small-scale context of hunting to correctly interpret changes or apparent stasis in hunting effort and offtake over time.

Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling.

We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalized these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services.

Distribution and use of income from bushmeat in a rural village, central Gabon.

Bushmeat hunting is an activity integral to rural forest communities that provides a high proportion of household incomes and protein requirements. An improved understanding of the relationship between bushmeat hunting and household wealth is vital to assess the potential effects of future policy interventions to regulate an increasingly unsustainable bushmeat trade. We investigated the relationship between hunting offtake and household wealth, gender differences in spending patterns, and the use of hunting incomes in two rural forest communities, Central Gabon, from 2003 to 2005. Households in which members hunted (hunting households) were significantly wealthier than households in which no one hunted (nonhunting households), but within hunting households offtakes were not correlated with household wealth. This suggests there are access barriers to becoming a hunter and that hunting offtakes may not be the main driver of wealth accumulation. Over half of the money spent by men in the village shop was on alcohol and cigarettes, and the amount and proportion of income spent on these items increased substantially with increases in individual hunting offtake. By contrast, the majority of purchases made by women were of food, but their food purchases decreased actually and proportionally with increased household hunting offtake. This suggests that the availability of bushmeat as a food source decreases spending on food, whereas hunting income may be spent in part on items that do not contribute significantly to household food security. Conservation interventions that aim to reduce the commercial bushmeat trade need to account for likely shifts in individual spending that may ensue and the secondary effects on household economies.

Global mapping of ecosystem services and conservation priorities.

Global efforts to conserve biodiversity have the potential to deliver economic benefits to people (i.e., "ecosystem services"). However, regions for which conservation benefits both biodiversity and ecosystem services cannot be identified unless ecosystem services can be quantified and valued and their areas of production mapped. Here we review the theory, data, and analyses needed to produce such maps and find that data availability allows us to quantify imperfect global proxies for only four ecosystem services. Using this incomplete set as an illustration, we compare ecosystem service maps with the global distributions of conventional targets for biodiversity conservation. Our preliminary results show that regions selected to maximize biodiversity provide no more ecosystem services than regions chosen randomly. Furthermore, spatial concordance among different services, and between ecosystem services and established conservation priorities, varies widely. Despite this lack of general concordance, "win-win" areas-regions important for both ecosystem services and biodiversity-can be usefully identified, both among ecoregions and at finer scales within them. An ambitious interdisciplinary research effort is needed to move beyond these preliminary and illustrative analyses to fully assess synergies and trade-offs in conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Governance and the loss of biodiversity.

Most of the world's biodiversity occurs within developing countries that require donor support to build their conservation capacity. Unfortunately, some of these countries experience high levels of political corruption, which may limit the success of conservation projects by reducing effective funding levels and distorting priorities. We investigated whether changes in three well surveyed and widespread components of biodiversity were associated with national governance scores and other socio-economic measures. Here we show that governance scores were correlated with changes in total forest cover, but not with changes in natural forest cover. We found strong associations between governance scores and changes in the numbers of African elephants and black rhinoceroses, and these socio-economic factors explained observed patterns better than any others. Finally, we show that countries rich in species and identified as containing priority areas for conservation have lower governance scores than other nations. These results stress the need for conservationists to develop and implement policies that reduce the effects of political corruption and, in this regard, we question the universal applicability of an influential approach to conservation that seeks to ban international trade in endangered species.

When does conservation genetics matter?

Is this short review we explore the genetic threats facing declining populations, focusing in particular on empirical studies and the emerging questions they raise. At face value, the two primary threats are slow erosion of genetic variability by drift and short-term lowering of fitness owing to inbreeding depression, of which the latter appears the more potent force. However, the picture is not this simple. Populations that have passed through a severe bottleneck can show a markedly reduced ability to respond to change, particularly in the face of novel challenges. At the same time, several recent studies reveal subtle ways in which species are able to retain more useful genetic variability than they 'should', for example by enhanced reproductive success among the most outbred individuals in a population. Such findings call into question the validity of simple models based on random mating, and emphasize the need for more empirical data aimed at elucidating precisely what happens in natural populations.

Conservation conflicts across Africa.

There is increasing evidence that areas of outstanding conservation importance may coincide with dense human settlement or impact. We tested the generality of these findings using 1 degree-resolution data for sub-Saharan Africa. We find that human population density is positively correlated with species richness of birds, mammals, snakes, and amphibians. This association holds for widespread, narrowly endemic, and threatened species and looks set to persist in the face of foreseeable population growth. Our results contradict earlier expectations of low conflict based on the idea that species richness decreases and human impact increases with primary productivity. We find that across Africa, both variables instead exhibit unimodal relationships with productivity. Modifying priority-setting to take account of human density shows that, at this scale, conflicts between conservation and development are not easily avoided, because many densely inhabited grid cells contain species found nowhere else.

Experimental analyses of sexual and natural selection on short tails in a polygynous warbler.

We believe that no experimental study has yet tested Darwin's idea that, as well as generating trait elaboration, intersexual selection might sometimes drive sex-biased trait reduction. Here we present the results of two experiments exploring the negative relationship between tail length and reproductive success in male golden-headed cisticolas (Cisticola exilis). In the first experiment, artificially shortening a male's tail produced a dramatic increase in his reproductive success, measured as either the number of females nesting or number of chicks Hedged on his territory. A second experiment, in which manipulated birds were flown through a maze, revealed that short tails also impose costs by reducing aerodynamic performance during slow-speed foraging flight. Because tail shortening yields reproductive benefits and viability costs, we conclude it has evolved via sexual selection. Disentangling exactly how short tails enhance male reproductive success is more difficult. Male-male competition appears partly responsible: aerodynamic theory predicts that tail reduction enhances high-speed flight and, in line with this, shortened-tail males spent more time engaged in high-speed aerial chases of rivals and defended higher-quality territories. However, shortened-tail males had higher reproductive success independent of territory quality and spent more time in aerial displays which may be directed at females. This suggests that tail shortening is also favoured via female choice based on male phenotype.

Adaptive female choice for middle-aged mates in a lekking sandfly.

Most theoretical models of age-related mate choice predict that females should prefer older males because they have proven survival ability. An alternative view is that older males represent inferior mates because of negative genetic correlations between early and late fitness components, or because older males have traded off longevity against other fitness components, have accumulated deleterious germ-line mutations, or are less well adapted to current conditions than more recently born individuals. While numerous studies have reported female choice for older males, few have explicitly examined the fitness consequences of such a preference. We present evidence from a lekking sandfly, Lutzomyia longipalpis, showing that choosy females discriminate against older males and gain a fitness benefit from their choice. When permitted free choice from an aggregation consisting of males aged zero to two days (young), four to six days (middle-aged) and eight to ten days (old), females preferentially mated with middle-aged males, but all measures of female reproductive success were independent of male age. In contrast, when a second set of females was randomly assigned single virgin males of known age, the eggs of those paired to old mates exhibited lower hatching success than the eggs of females mated to young or middle-aged males. These results suggest that females avoid mating with older males because they represent poorer quality mates. Age-related differences in male quality may have a genetic basis, but could equally well arise through a phenotypic decline in sperm quality or sperm transfer ability with male age. The lack of evidence of female discrimination against older males from other studies may be because these did not explore the reproductive success of the full age range of males.

Extinction filters and current resilience: the significance of past selection pressures for conservation biology.

There is now little reasonable doubt about the scale of the present extinction crisis: recent and ongoing rates of species loss exceed background levels by two to three orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, species differ widely in their vulnerability to current threats. Growing evidence from both palaeontology and conservation biology suggests that past events may help to explain this variation. Communities appear far more resilient to particular threats if they have faced similar challenges in the past. This intuitive but poorly reported phenomenon has potentially far-reaching implications for attempts to focus conservation efforts on those areas most at risk from contemporary human activity.

Mate choice on leks.

In lek-breeding animals, males defend tiny territories clustered into arenas, where females come to mate. Typically, most lek males secure relatively few copulations while a small number are highly successful. Recent studies suggest that the skewed distribution of matings seen at leks may be the result of females using a variety of criteria to select particular mating partners. Nevertheless, the possible benefits to females of mate choice at leks, where males offer neither resources nor paternal care, remain obscure.