Is poor performance on NBME clinical subject examinations associated with a failing score on the USMLE step 3 examination?

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between poor performance on National Board of Medical Examiners clinical subject examinations across six core clerkships and performance on the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 3 examination. METHOD: In 2012, the authors studied matriculants from the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences with available Step 3 scores and subject exam scores on all six clerkships (Classes of 2007-2011, N = 654). Poor performance on subject exams was defined as scoring one standard deviation (SD) or more below the mean using the national norms of the corresponding test year. The association between poor performance on the subject exams and the probability of passing or failing Step 3 was tested using contingency table analyses and logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: Students performing poorly on one subject exam were significantly more likely to fail Step 3 (OR 14.23 [95% CI 1.7-119.3]) compared with students with no subject exam scores that were 1 SD below the mean. Poor performance on more than one subject exam further increased the chances of failing (OR 33.41 [95% CI 4.4-254.2]). This latter group represented 27% of the entire cohort, yet contained 70% of the students who failed Step 3. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that individual schools could benefit from a review of subject exam performance to develop and validate their own criteria for identifying students at risk for failing Step 3.

The association between specialty match and third-year clerkship performance.

PURPOSE: The United States is experiencing an accelerating physician shortage, especially within primary care. Medical educators are actively seeking ways to predict student specialty match and workforce requirements. Previous studies investigating specialty match have focused on factors known at the time of matriculation. This study examined whether third-year clerkship performance could be used to predict specialty match later in medical school. METHOD: The authors evaluated the clerkship performance of 802 students graduating from the Uniformed Services University between 2007 and 2011. They examined the relationship of students' clerkship grades and National Board of Medical Examiners' clinical subject examination scores to specialty match. In addition, the authors combined student performance in family medicine, internal medicine, and pediatrics to create composite variables and assessed their associations with the match. RESULTS: Among 802 students, 339 (42.4%) students matched to primary care specialties. There was a positive association between higher family medicine (Odds ratio [OR] 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05, 2.59), general surgery (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.22, 2.99), internal medicine (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.35, 3.49), and pediatrics (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.52, 4.43) clerkship grades and students matching into family medicine, general surgery, internal medicine, and pediatrics, respectively. Only family medicine showed a weak correlation between higher National Board of Medical Examiners' scores and specialty match. CONCLUSIONS: Higher clerkship performance in four of six Uniformed Services University third-year clerkships is associated with matching into the corresponding specialty. Clerkship performance provides a potential tool for educators in counseling students and predicting future specialty match.