A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares.

Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sun's corona that affect Earth's space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the κ-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the κ-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be.

The nonsense-mediated mRNA decay SMG-1 kinase is regulated by large-scale conformational changes controlled by SMG-8.

Nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) is a eukaryotic surveillance pathway that regulates the degradation of mRNAs harboring premature translation termination codons. NMD also influences the expression of many physiological transcripts. SMG-1 is a large kinase essential to NMD that phosphorylates Upf1, which seems to be the definitive signal triggering mRNA decay. However, the regulation of the kinase activity of SMG-1 remains poorly understood. Here, we reveal the three-dimensional architecture of SMG-1 in complex with SMG-8 and SMG-9, and the structural mechanisms regulating SMG-1 kinase. A bent arm comprising a long region of HEAT (huntington, elongation factor 3, a subunit of PP2A and TOR1) repeats at the N terminus of SMG-1 functions as a scaffold for SMG-8 and SMG-9, and projects from the C-terminal core containing the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase domain. SMG-9 seems to control the activity of SMG-1 indirectly through the recruitment of SMG-8 to the N-terminal HEAT repeat region of SMG-1. Notably, SMG-8 binding to the SMG-1:SMG-9 complex specifically down-regulates the kinase activity of SMG-1 on Upf1 without contacting the catalytic domain. Assembly of the SMG-1:SMG-8:SMG-9 complex induces a significant motion of the HEAT repeats that is signaled to the kinase domain. Thus, large-scale conformational changes induced by SMG-8 after SMG-9-mediated recruitment tune SMG-1 kinase activity to modulate NMD.

Characterization of SMG-9, an essential component of the nonsense-mediated mRNA decay SMG1C complex.

SMG-9 is part of a protein kinase complex, SMG1C, which consists of the SMG-1 kinase, SMG-8 and SMG-9. SMG1C mediated phosphorylation of Upf1 triggers nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD), a eukaryotic surveillance pathway that detects and targets for degradation mRNAs harboring premature translation termination codons. Here, we have characterized SMG-9, showing that it comprises an N-terminal 180 residue intrinsically disordered region (IDR) followed by a well-folded C-terminal domain. Both domains are required for SMG-1 binding and the integrity of the SMG1C complex, whereas the C-terminus is sufficient to interact with SMG-8. In addition, we have found that SMG-9 assembles in vivo into SMG-9:SMG-9 and, most likely, SMG-8:SMG-9 complexes that are not constituents of SMG1C. SMG-9 self-association is driven by interactions between the C-terminal domains and surprisingly, some SMG-9 oligomers are completely devoid of SMG-1 and SMG-8. We propose that SMG-9 has biological functions beyond SMG1C, as part of distinct SMG-9-containing complexes. Some of these complexes may function as intermediates potentially regulating SMG1C assembly, tuning the activity of SMG-1 with the NMD machinery. The structural malleability of IDRs could facilitate the transit of SMG-9 through several macromolecular complexes.