Toxicity of Chlorantraniliprole and it's Formulated Product, Altacor®, to Individuals and Populations of Ceriodaphnia Dubia Richard.

The toxicity of the insecticide chlorantraniliprole and its formulated product Altacor® was determined for the Cladoceran, Ceriodaphnia dubia Richard. Acute toxicity (48 h) and 21 d population studies were conducted. The hypothesis of this study was that these two compounds would have different toxicities. We conducted acute and chronic toxicity studies for each compound and compared the results to test this hypothesis. 48 h LC50s (95% CL) for chlorantraniliprole and Altacor® were 8.5 (6.6-11.5) and 6.0 (3.7-9.0) µg chlorantraniliprole/L water, respectively. Therefore, chlorantraniliprole and Altacor® were equitoxic to C. dubia at LC50 based on overlap of the 95% CL. In the population study, chlorantraniliprole and Altacor® concentrations equivalent to the acute LC5, 10, 25, and 50 for each product were evaluated on populations of C. dubia. Number of individuals after 21 d was the endpoint evaluated. T-tests conducted at each LC value indicated that there was no significant difference in population size between these two products at each LC value evaluated. Previous studies show that toxicity can vary greatly between formulated and technical grade pesticides. However, our results show that chlorantraniliprole and its formulated product, Altacor® were equally toxic to C. dubia. Therefore, making assumptions about the toxicity of formulated and unformulated products is ill advised.

A tale of two metrics: the EPA Risk Quotient Approach versus the delay in Population Growth Index for determination of pesticide risk to aquatic species.

The potential risk that two closely related insecticides, spinetoram and spinosad, posed to three Cladoceran species, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia pulex, and D. magna was determined using two approaches, the USEPA Risk Quotient method and the Delay in Population Growth Index (DPGI). Results of the RQ method showed that spinetoram posed a risk to all three species, but spinosad posed a risk only to C. dubia. The DPGI analysis showed that exposure to spinetoram resulted in populations of all three species being delayed ≥ 3 generation times. Exposure to the LC50 and the lower 95% CL resulted in delayed populations while exposure to the upper 95% CL concentration of spinetoram resulted in no recovery of any of the three species over the course of the modeling exercise (88 d). Exposure to the lower and upper 95% Cl and the LC50 of spinosad resulted in C. dubia populations being delayed ≥ 3 generations. D. pulex populations were not negatively affected after exposure to spinosad. D. magna populations were delayed ≥ 3 generations, but only after exposure to the upper 95% Cl of spinosad. These results illustrate that although the EPA risk quotient method indicated that spinetoram posed a risk to all three species and that spinosad only posed a risk to C. dubia, the DPGI showed that D. magna would be negatively affected by spinosad and none of the three species would reach a predetermined number of individuals after exposure to the upper 95% CL of spinetoram. Because the DPGI uses the 95% Cl as well as the LC50 in its calculation and produces a measure of population growth it provides more detailed information in terms of the potential risk of pesticides to populations than the RQ method.

Population viability in a host-parasitoid system is mediated by interactions between population stage structure and life stage differential susceptibility to toxicants.

The effects of toxicants, such as pesticides, may be more severe for some life stages of an organism than others. However, in most toxicity studies, data is developed for only one life stage, which may lead to misleading interpretations. Furthermore, population stage-structure may interact with differential susceptibility, especially when populations consist of higher proportions of individuals in more susceptible stages at the time of toxicant exposure. We explore the interaction of differential stage susceptibility and stage distribution using a stage-structured Lefkovitch matrix model. We incorporate lab-derived toxicity data for a common parasitoid, the braconid Diaeretiella rapae (M'Intosh), a common natural enemy of the cabbage aphid (Brevicoryne brassicae L.), exposed to the pesticide imidacloprid. We compare population outcomes of simulations in which we vary both the population stage structure along with the susceptibility of each stage to toxicants. Our results illustrate an interaction between differential susceptibility and initial stage distribution, highlighting the fact that both of these demographic features should be considered in interpreting toxicity data and the development of ecological risk assessments.

Population model for the decline of Homalodisca vitripennis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) over a ten-year period.

The glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar), is an invasive pest which presents a major economic threat to grape industries in California, because it spreads a disease-causing bacterium, Xylella fastidiosa. In this note we develop a time and temperature dependent mathematical model to analyze aggregate population data for H. vitripennis from a 10-year study consisting of biweekly monitoring of H. vitripennis populations on unsprayed citrus, during which H. vitripennis decreased significantly. This model was fitted to the aggregate H. vitripennis time series data using iterative reweighted weighted least squares (IRWLS) with assumed probability distributions for certain parameter values. Results indicate that the H. vitripennis model fits the phenological and temperature data reasonably well, but the observed population decrease may possibly be attributed to factors other than the abiotic effect of temperature. A key factor responsible for this decline but not analyzed here could be biotic, for example, potentially parasitism of H. vitripennis eggs by Cosmocomoidea ashmeadi. A biological control program targeting H. vitripennis utilizing the mymarid egg parasitoid Cosmocomoidea (formerly Gonatocerus) ashmeadi (Girault) is described.

Ecosystem function in predator-prey food webs-confronting dynamic models with empirical data.

Most ecosystem functions and related services involve species interactions across trophic levels, for example, pollination and biological pest control. Despite this, our understanding of ecosystem function in multitrophic communities is poor, and research has been limited to either manipulation in small communities or statistical descriptions in larger ones. Recent advances in food web ecology may allow us to overcome the trade-off between mechanistic insight and ecological realism. Molecular tools now simplify the detection of feeding interactions, and trait-based approaches allow the application of dynamic food web models to real ecosystems. We performed the first test of an allometric food web model's ability to replicate temporally nonaggregated abundance data from the field and to provide mechanistic insight into the function of predation. We aimed to reproduce and explore the drivers of the population dynamics of the aphid herbivore Rhopalosiphum padi observed in ten Swedish barley fields. We used a dynamic food web model, taking observed interactions and abundances of predators and alternative prey as input data, allowing us to examine the role of predation in aphid population control. The inverse problem methods were used for simultaneous model fit optimization and model parameterization. The model captured >70% of the variation in aphid abundance in five of ten fields, supporting the model-embodied hypothesis that body size can be an important determinant of predation in the arthropod community. We further demonstrate how in-depth model analysis can disentangle the likely drivers of function, such as the community's abundance and trait composition. Analysing the variability in model performance revealed knowledge gaps, such as the source of episodic aphid mortality, and general method development needs that, if addressed, would further increase model success and enable stronger inference about ecosystem function. The results demonstrate that confronting dynamic food web models with abundance data from the field is a viable approach to evaluate ecological theory and to aid our understanding of function in real ecosystems. However, to realize the full potential of food web models, in ecosystem function research and beyond, trait-based parameterization must be refined and extended to include more traits than body size.

The trouble with surrogates in environmental risk assessment: a daphniid case study.

The use of indicator species to test for environmental stability and functioning is a widespread practice. In aquatic systems, several daphniids (Cladocera: Daphniidae) are commonly used as indicator species; registration of new pesticides are mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency to be accompanied by daphniid toxicity data. This reliance upon a few species to infer ecosystem health and function assumes similar responses to toxicants across species with potentially very different life histories and susceptibility. Incorporating lab-derived life-history data into a simple mathematical model, we explore the reliability of three different daphniid species as surrogates for each other by comparing their responses to reductions in survivorship and fecundity after simulated exposure to toxicants. Our results demonstrate that daphniid species' responses to toxicant exposure render them poor surrogates for one another, highlighting that caution should be exercised in using a surrogate approach to the use of indicator species in risk assessment.

Correctly modeling plant-insect-herbivore-pesticide interactions as aggregate data.

We consider a population dynamics model in investigating data from controlled experiments with aphids in broccoli patches surrounded by different margin types (bare or weedy ground) and three levels of insecticide spray (no, light, or heavy spray). The experimental data is clearly aggregate in nature. In previous efforts [1], the aggregate nature of the data was ignored. In this paper, we embrace this aspect of the experiment and correctly model the data as aggregate data, comparing the results to the previous approach. We discuss cases in which the approach may provide similar results as well as cases in which there is a clear difference in the resulting fit to the data.

The evolution of toxicant resistance in daphniids and its role on surrogate species.

Prolonged exposure to a disturbance such as a toxicant has the potential to result in rapid evolution to toxicant resistance in many short-lived species such as daphniids. This evolution may allow a population to persist at higher levels of the toxicant than is possible without evolution. Here we apply evolutionary game theory to a Leslie matrix model for a daphniid population to obtain a Darwinian model that couples population dynamics with the dynamics of an evolving trait. We use the Darwinian model to consider how the evolution of resistance to the lethal or sublethal effects of a disturbance may change the population dynamics. In particular, we determine the conditions under which a daphniid population can persist by evolving toxicant resistance. We then consider the implications of this evolution in terms of the use of daphniids as surrogate species. We show for three species of daphniids that evolution of toxicant resistance means that one species may persist while another does not. These results suggest that toxicant studies that do not consider the potential of a species (or its surrogate) to develop toxicant resistance may not accurately predict the long term persistence of the species.

Sublethal Effects in Pest Management: A Surrogate Species Perspective on Fruit Fly Control.

Tephritid fruit flies are economically important orchard pests globally. While much effort has focused on controlling individual species with a combination of pesticides and biological control, less attention has been paid to managing assemblages of species. Although several tephritid species may co-occur in orchards/cultivated areas, especially in mixed-cropping schemes, their responses to pesticides may be highly variable. Furthermore, predictive efforts about toxicant effects are generally based on acute toxicity, with little or no regard to long-term population effects. Using a simple matrix model parameterized with life history data, we quantified the responses of several tephritid species to the sublethal effects of a toxicant acting on fecundity. Using a critical threshold to determine levels of fecundity reduction below which species are driven to local extinction, we determined that threshold levels vary widely for the three tephritid species. In particular, Bactrocera dorsalis was the most robust of the three species, followed by Ceratitis capitata, and then B. cucurbitae, suggesting individual species responses should be taken into account when planning for area-wide pest control. The rank-order of susceptibility contrasts with results from several field/lab studies testing the same species, suggesting that considering a combination of life history traits and individual species susceptibility is necessary for understanding population responses of species assemblages to toxicant exposure.

An adaptive feedback methodology for determining information content in stable population studies.

We develop statistical and mathematical based methodologies for determining (as the experiment progresses) the amount of information required to complete the estimation of stable population parameters with pre-specified levels of confidence. We do this in the context of life table models and data for growth/death for three species of Daphniids as investigated by J. Stark and J. Banks [17]. The ideas developed here also have wide application in the health and social sciences where experimental data are often expensive as well as difficult to obtain.

Developing demographic toxicity data: optimizing effort for predicting population outcomes.

Mounting evidence suggests that population endpoints in risk assessment are far more accurate than static assessments. Complete demographic toxicity data based on full life tables are eminently useful in predicting population outcomes in many applications because they capture both lethal and sublethal effects; however, developing these life tables is extremely costly. In this study we investigated the efficiency of partial life cycle tests as a substitute for full life cycles in parameterizing population models. Life table data were developed for three species of Daphniids, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex, weekly throughout the life span of these species. Population growth rates (λ) and a series of other demographic parameters generated from the complete life cycle were compared to those calculated from cumulative weeks of the life cycle in order to determine the minimum number of weeks needed to generate an accurate population projection. Results showed that for C. dubia and D. pulex, λ values developed at >4 weeks (44.4% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (9 weeks) of each species. For D. magna, λ values developed at >7 weeks (70% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (10 weeks). Furthermore, these cutoff points for λ were not the same for other demographic parameters, with no clear pattern emerging. Our results indicate that for C. dubia, D. magna, and D. pulex, partial life tables can be used to generate population growth rates in lieu of full life tables. However, the implications of differences in cutoff points for different demographic parameters need to be investigated further.

Incorporating variability in point estimates in risk assessment: Bridging the gap between LC50 and population endpoints.

Historically, point estimates such as the median lethal concentration (LC50) have been instrumental in assessing risks associated with toxicants to rare or economically important species. In recent years, growing awareness of the shortcomings of this approach has led to an increased focus on analyses using population endpoints. However, risk assessment of pesticides still relies heavily on large amounts of LC50 data amassed over decades in the laboratory. Despite the fact that these data are generally well replicated, little or no attention has been given to the sometime high levels of variability associated with the generation of point estimates. This is especially important in agroecosystems where arthropod predator-prey interactions are often disrupted by the use of pesticides. Using laboratory derived data of 4 economically important species (2 fruit fly pest species and 2 braconid parasitoid species) and matrix based population models, the authors demonstrate in the present study a method for bridging traditional point estimate risk assessments with population outcomes. The results illustrate that even closely related species can show strikingly divergent responses to the same exposures to pesticides. Furthermore, the authors show that using different values within the 95% confidence intervals of LC50 values can result in very different population outcomes, ranging from quick recovery to extinction for both pest and parasitoid species. The authors discuss the implications of these results and emphasize the need to incorporate variability and uncertainty in point estimates for use in risk assessment.

Deconstructing the surrogate species concept: a life history approach to the protection of ecosystem services.

The use of the surrogate species concept is widespread in environmental risk assessment and in efforts to protect species that provide ecosystem services, yet there are no standard protocols for the choice of surrogates. Surrogates are often chosen on the basis of convenience or vague resemblances in physiology or life history to species of concern. Furthermore, our ability to predict how species of concern will fare when subjected to disturbances such as environmental contaminants or toxicants is often based on woefully misleading comparisons of static toxicity tests. Here we present an alternative approach that features a simple mathematical model parameterized with life history data applied to an assemblage of species that provide an important ecosystem service: a suite of parasitoid wasps that provide biological control of agricultural pests. Our results indicate that these parasitoid wasp species have different population responses to toxic insult--that is, we cannot predict how all four species will react to pesticide exposure simply by extrapolating from the response of any one species. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of survivorship and reproduction demonstrates that the life stage most sensitive to pesticide disturbance varies among species. Taken together, our results suggest that the ability to predict the fate of a suite of species using the response of just one species (the surrogate species concept) is widely variable and potentially misleading.

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

The use of surrogate species in risk assessment: using life history data to safeguard against false negatives.

The use of surrogate species is an important tool in predicting the effects of management decisions or the establishment of protective measures for endangered/threatened species. While relying on a handful of model species to predict the fate of scores of distantly related target species has been criticized, a quantitative measure linking life history traits and population predictions has been sorely missing. We derive here a closed-form expression aimed at determining conditions under which sublethal effects of a toxicant on surrogate species population outcomes will reliably predict outcomes of target (listed) species. We develop a critical threshold in fecundity reduction above which the surrogate species outcomes indicate positive population growth, while the listed species is driven to extinction. Thus we have established a means of determining conditions under which we are prone to making a "Type II" error in assessing ecological risk using surrogate species. Finally, we use the derived expression and life history data to compare outcomes from four different commonly used fish surrogate species (round goby, fathead minnow, smallmouth bass, cutthroat trout) and their target listed species (Chinook and Coho salmon). We illustrate that all four surrogate species fail to predict population outcomes for the listed species in cases of as little as 15% fecundity reduction due to toxicant exposure. Furthermore, surrogate species reliability is a function of toxicant level, so that some species are reliable at some levels but not at others. We discuss the implications of these findings, and outline further analyses that occur as a natural extension of the criteria developed here.

Incorporating ecologically relevant measures of pesticide effect for estimating the compatibility of pesticides and biocontrol agents.

The compatibility of biological control agents with pesticides is a central concern in integrated pest management programs. The most common assessments of compatibility consist of simple comparisons of acute toxicity among pest species and select biocontrol agents. A more sophisticated approach, developed by the International Organisation of Biological Control (IOBC), is based on a tiered hierarchy made up of threshold values for mortality and sublethal effects that is used to determine the compatibility of pesticides and biological control agents. However, this method is unable to capture longer term population dynamics, which is often critical to the success of biological control and pest suppression. In this article, we used the delay in population growth index, a measure of population recovery, to investigate the potential impacts that the threshold values for levels of lethal and sublethal effects developed by the IOBC had on three biocontrol agents: sevenspotted lady beetle, Coccinella septempunctata L.; the aphid parasitoid Diaeretiella rapae (M'Intosh), and Fopius arisanus (Sonan), a parasitoid of tephritid flies. Based on life histories of these economically important natural enemies, we established a delay of 1-generation time interval as sufficient to disrupt biological control success. We found that delays equivalent to 1-generation time interval were caused by mortality as low as 50% or reductions of offspring as low as 58%, both values in line with thresholds developed by the IOBC. However, combinations of mortality and reduction of offspring lower than these values (from 32 to 43% each) over a simulated 4-mo period caused significant population delays. Furthermore, the species used in these simulations reacted differently to the same levels of effect. The parasitoid D. rapae was the most susceptible species, followed by F. arisanus and C. septempunctata. Our results indicate that it is not possible to generalize about potential long-term impacts of pesticides on biocontrol agents because susceptibility is influenced by differences in life history variables. Additionally, populations of biocontrol agents may undergo significant damage when mortality approaches 50% or when there is mortality of -30% and a 30% reduction in offspring caused by a sublethal effect. Our results suggest that more ecologically relevant measures of effect such as delays in population growth may advance our knowledge of pesticide impacts on populations of beneficial species.

Estimation of dynamic rate parameters in insect populations undergoing sublethal exposure to pesticides.

With newer, more environmentally friendly and, subsequently less lethal, pesticides in use, evaluating efficacy of a pesticide now requires more than simply counting deaths after treatment. A discrete, age-structured matrix model that incorporates a species' life history traits (such as birth rate, death rate and fecundity) has previously been used by ecologists. This model will be presented and discussed along with an alternative continuous, age-structured model which offers significant advantage in considering sublethal damage. We use this continuous model to estimate time-dependent mortality parameters in an ordinary least-squares technique. Confidence intervals are given and results from tests for statistical significance of added parameters are presented.

How risky is risk assessment: the role that life history strategies play in susceptibility of species to stress.

Measurements of toxicity based on individuals, such as the LC(50) (concentration that kills 50% of a population), and effects on reproduction are used extensively in determining ecological risk, in particular, for endangered or threatened species. An underlying assumption is that individual-based toxicity metrics for one species can be directly compared with that for another species. However, this assumption overlooks the fact that different species have different life-history strategies and variables, such as lifespan, time to first reproduction, and number of offspring produced over a lifetime. Using a simple model and laboratory-derived parameter values, we tested the impact of differences in life-history traits on predicted responses to stress. The model predicts the delay in population growth. We compared seven invertebrate species by imposing 50% chronic mortality, 50% reduction of offspring, and both of these effects. The model predicted substantial differences in population delay among all of the species. Furthermore, the intrinsic rate of increase of each population was negatively correlated with the delay in population growth; species with high intrinsic rates of increase were less susceptible to equal levels of stress than species with lower intrinsic rates of increase. These results suggest that the susceptibility of species to pollutants is more complicated than previously thought and that differences in life-history variables must be considered in analyses of population persistence for threatened and endangered species.

Population-level effects of pesticides and other toxicants on arthropods.

New developments in ecotoxicology are changing the way pesticides and other toxicants are evaluated. An emphasis on life histories and population fitness through the use of demography, other measures of population growth rate, field studies, and modeling are being exploited to derive better estimates of pesticide impacts on both target and nontarget species than traditional lethal dose estimates. We review the state of the art in demographic toxicology, an approach to the evaluation of toxicity that uses life history parameters and other measures of population growth rate. A review of the literature revealed that 75 studies on the use of demography and similar measures of population growth rate in toxicology have been published since 1962. Of these 75 studies, the majority involved arthropods. Recent evaluations have indicated that ecotoxicological analysis based on population growth rate results in more accurate assessments of the impacts of pesticides and other toxicants because measures of population growth rate combine lethal and sublethal effects, which lethal dose/concentration estimates (LD/LC50) cannot do. We contend that to advance our knowledge of toxicant impacts on arthropods, the population growth rate approach should be widely adopted.

The scale of landscape fragmentation affects herbivore response to vegetation heterogeneity.

Using alternating bands of weeds and broccoli I experimentally manipulated vegetation composition and the spatial scale at which the landscape was fragmented in a factorial design. This experimental approach allowed me to distinguish the effect of spatial scale from that of simple crop heterogeneity on crop herbivores. The importance of scale depended on which insect species were examined. Cabbage aphids (Brevicoryne brassicae) were influenced by vegetation composition at all tested scales of fragmentation; cabbage butterflies (Pieris rapae) were not affected by scale or by composition and flea beetles (Phyllotreta cruciferae) revealed a striking dependence on scale of fragmentation as well as an interaction between scale and composition. This approach shows the importance of dissecting out the effects of scale from other aspects of landscape manipulation, and emphasizes the challenge of developing a theory that will enable prediction of species-specific responses to scale.