Time to complete contemporary dental procedures - estimates from a cross-sectional survey of the dental team.

BACKGROUND: There are few contemporary studies on the time taken to complete dental procedures, those most heavily relied on in the United Kingdom date back to 1999. OBJECTIVES: This work aimed to establish how long members of the dental team took to complete specific dental procedures, relevant to their scope of practice. METHODS: Data were collected via a purposive sample of 96 dentists, dental hygienists/therapists and dental nurses. Via an online survey, participants were asked to state the mean, minimum and maximum time they estimated that they took to complete individual dental procedures. RESULTS: The mean time taken to complete procedures common to both dentists and dental hygienists/therapists ranged from 3.7 to 4 min respectively for clinical note reading prior to seeing patients to 30.1 and 28 min to undertake root surface debridement. There were no significant differences between the time taken by dentists and dental hygienists/therapists to treat adult patients. However, in all but one procedure, dental hygienists/therapists reported taking longer (p = 0.04) to treat child patients. CONCLUSIONS: The data provided here represent an up to date assessment of the time taken to complete specific tasks by different members of the dental team. These data will be of value to service planners and commissioners interested in evolving a dental care system that employs a greater degree of skill-mix and preventively oriented care.

Real-world evidence from the first online healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone. Validation of its descriptive epidemiology module.

Incidence and prevalence are key epidemiological determinants characterizing the quantum of a disease. We compared incidence and prevalence estimates derived automatically from the first ever online, essentially real-time, healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone-against findings from comparable peer-reviewed studies in order to validate the descriptive epidemiology module. The source of routine NHS data for Livingstone was the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). After applying a general search strategy looking for any disease or condition, 76 relevant studies were first retrieved, of which 10 met pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings reported in these studies were compared with estimates produced automatically by Livingstone. The published reports described elements of the epidemiology of 14 diseases or conditions. Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to evaluate the concordance between findings from Livingstone and those detailed in the published studies. The concordance of incidence values in the final year reported by each study versus Livingstone was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89-0.98), whilst for all annual incidence values the concordance was 0.93 (0.91-0.94). For prevalence, concordance for the final annual prevalence reported in each study versus Livingstone was 1.00 (0.99-1.00) and for all reported annual prevalence values, the concordance was 0.93 (0.90-0.95). The concordance between Livingstone and the latest published findings was near perfect for prevalence and substantial for incidence. For the first time, it is now possible to automatically generate reliable descriptive epidemiology from routine health records, and in near-real time. Livingstone provides the first mechanism to rapidly generate standardised, descriptive epidemiology for all clinical events from real world data.

The development and application of a chairside oral health risk and need stratification tool in general dental services.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the development and application of the Assessment of Clinical Oral Risks and Needs (ACORN) stratification tool based on a traffic light system in National Health Service (NHS) general dental services (GDS) Wales, UK. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of routinely-collected dental care data. All courses of treatment provided in dental practices participating in NHS GDS Reform Programme between July 2018 and September 2019, in which an ACORN assessment and age were recorded were included in the analysis. RESULTS: A total of 236,490 subjects contributed 339,933 courses of treatment during the study period. 'Amber' and 'red' ACORN outcomes were associated with more courses of treatment per annum than 'green' outcomes. Outcomes indicating an increased risk of decay or other dental problems were associated with a greater likelihood of several operative treatment items. Patients at greater risk of poor periodontal health were more likely to receive extractions and dentures than low-risk patients. Patients were most likely to either remain in the same ACORN outcome categories or move to a healthier state between assessments. CONCLUSION: More research is required to understand the utility of the ACORN tool in risk communication and behaviour change.

Brief Report: PrEPTECH: A Telehealth-Based Initiation Program for HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis in Young Men of Color Who Have Sex With Men. A Pilot Study of Feasibility.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, young men who have sex with men (YMSM) of color represent a high number of new HIV diagnoses annually. HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is effective and acceptable to YMSM of color; yet, PrEP uptake is low in those communities because of barriers including stigma, cost, adherence concerns, and medical distrust. A telehealth-based approach to PrEP initiation may be a solution to those barriers. This pilot study investigates one such intervention called PrEPTECH. METHODS: We enrolled 25 HIV-uninfected YMSM, aged 18-25 years, from the San Francisco Bay Area into a 180-day longitudinal study between November 2016 and May 2017. Participants received cost-free PrEP services through telehealth [eg, telemedicine visits, home delivery of Truvada, and sexually transmitted infection testing kits], except for 2 laboratory visits. Online survey assessments querying PrEPTECH features and experiences were administered to participants at 90 and 180 days. RESULTS: Eighty-four percent of participants were YMSM of color. Among the 21 who completed the study, 11 of the 16 who wanted to continue PrEP were transitioned to sustainable PrEP providers. At least 75% felt that PrEPTECH was confidential, fast, convenient, and easy to use. Less than 15% personally experienced PrEP stigma during the study. The median time to PrEP initiation was 46 days. Sexually transmitted infection positivity was 20% and 19% at baseline and 90 days, respectively. No HIV infections were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Telehealth programs such as PrEPTECH increase PrEP access for YMSM of color by eliminating barriers inherent in traditional clinic-based models.

A genetic programming approach to development of clinical prediction models: A case study in symptomatic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Genetic programming (GP) is an evolutionary computing methodology capable of identifying complex, non-linear patterns in large data sets. Despite the potential advantages of GP over more typical, frequentist statistical approach methods, its applications to survival analyses are rare, at best. The aim of this study was to determine the utility of GP for the automatic development of clinical prediction models. METHODS: We compared GP against the commonly used Cox regression technique in terms of the development and performance of a cardiovascular risk score using data from the SMART study, a prospective cohort study of patients with symptomatic cardiovascular disease. The composite endpoint was cardiovascular death, non-fatal stroke, and myocardial infarction. A total of 3,873 patients aged 19-82 years were enrolled in the study 1996-2006. The cohort was split 70:30 into derivation and validation sets. The derivation set was used for development of both GP and Cox regression models. These models were then used to predict the discrete hazards at t = 1, 3, and 5 years. The predictive ability of both models was evaluated in terms of their risk discrimination and calibration using the validation set. RESULTS: The discrimination of both models was comparable. At time points t = 1, 3, and 5 years the C-index was 0.59, 0.69, 0.64 and 0.66, 0.70, 0.70 for the GP and Cox regression models respectively. At the same time points, the calibration of both models, which was assessed using calibration plots and the generalization of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic, was also comparable, but with the Cox model being better calibrated to the validation data. CONCLUSION: Using empirical data, we demonstrated that a prediction model developed automatically by GP has predictive ability comparable to that of manually tuned Cox regression. The GP model was more complex, but it was developed in a fully automated way and comprised fewer covariates. Furthermore, it did not require the expertise normally needed for its derivation, thereby alleviating the knowledge elicitation bottleneck. Overall, GP demonstrated considerable potential as a method for the automated development of clinical prediction models for diagnostic and prognostic purposes.

Disentangling the biological pathways involved in early features of Alzheimer's disease in the Rotterdam Study.

INTRODUCTION: Exploring the role of Alzheimer's disease (AD) implicated pathways in the predementia phase may provide new insight for preventive and clinical trials targeting disease specific pathways. METHODS: We constructed weighted Genetic risk scores, first based on 20 genome-wide significant AD risk variants and second clustering these variants within pathways. Risk scores were investigated for their association with AD, mild cognitive impairment, and brain magnetic resonance imaging phenotypes including white matter lesions, hippocampal volume, and brain volume. RESULTS: The risk score capturing endocytosis pathway was significantly associated with mild cognitive impairment (P = 1.44 × 10-4). Immune response (P = .016) and clathrin/AP2 adaptor complex pathway (P = 3.55 × 10-3) excluding apolipoprotein E also showed modest association with white matter lesions but did not sustain Bonferroni correction (P = 9.09 × 10-4). DISCUSSION: Our study suggests that the clinical spectrum of early AD pathology is explained by different biological pathways, in particular, the endocytosis, clathrin/AP2 adaptor complex, and immune response pathways, that are independent of apolipoprotein E (APOE).

Risk of cardiovascular events, arrhythmia and all-cause mortality associated with clarithromycin versus alternative antibiotics prescribed for respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether treatment with clarithromycin for respiratory tract infections was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, arrhythmias or all-cause mortality compared with other antibiotics. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort design comparing clarithromycin monotherapy for lower (LRTI) or upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) with other antibiotic monotherapies for the same indication. SETTING: Routine primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and inpatient data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥35 years prescribed antibiotic monotherapy for LRTI or URTI 1998-2012 and eligible for data linkage to HES. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were: adjusted risk of first-ever CV event, within 37 days of initiation, in commonly prescribed antibiotics compared with clarithromycin. Secondarily, adjusted 37-day risks of first-ever arrhythmia and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Of 700 689 treatments for LRTI and eligible for the CV analysis, there were 2071 CV events (unadjusted event rate: 29.6 per 10 000 treatments). Of 691 998 eligible treatments for URTI, there were 688 CV events (9.9 per 10 000 treatments). In LRTI and URTI, there were no significant differences in CV risk between clarithromycin and all other antibiotics combined: OR=1.00 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.22) and 0.82 (0.54 to 1.25), respectively. Adjusted CV risk in LRTI versus clarithromycin ranged from OR=1.42 (cefalexin; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.86) to 0.92 (doxycycline; 0.64 to 1.32); in URTI, from 1.17 (co-amoxiclav; 0.68 to 2.01) to 0.67 (erythromycin; 0.40 to 1.11). Adjusted mortality risk versus clarithromycin in LRTI ranged from 0.42 to 1.32; in URTI, from 0.75 to 1.43. For arrhythmia, adjusted risks in LRTI ranged from 0.68 to 1.05; in URTI, from 0.70 to 1.22. CONCLUSIONS: CV events were more likely after LRTI than after URTI. When analysed by specific indication, CV risk associated with clarithromycin was no different to other antibiotics.

Natural History of Patients Taking Rifaximin-α for Recurrent Hepatic Encephalopathy and Risk of Future Overt Episodes and Mortality: A Post-hoc Analysis of Clinical Trials Data.

PURPOSE: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a complication of cirrhosis signaling decompensation and is associated with mortality. There has been little characterization of HE once an incident episode has occurred and of what effect the transition to overt HE might have on outcomes. We characterized the relationships between the number of previous HE episodes and risk of subsequent episodes and mortality to better understand the natural history of HE. METHODS: Data on 321 patients from a 24-month, open-label, nonrandomized trial evaluating the long-term safety profile and tolerability of twice-daily rifaximin-α 550 mg were analyzed. Patients were followed for a mean of 1.5 years (total follow-up of 467 years). FINDINGS: There were a total of 334 HE episodes and 75 deaths, corresponding to unadjusted event rates of 715 HE episodes and 161 deaths per 1000 years. There was a direct association between rate of subsequent HE episodes and number of prior HE episodes; the risk of subsequent HE episodes was elevated for each additional HE episode (hazard ratio = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.29). There was a nonlinear, nonmonotonic relationship between risk of death and number of prior HE episodes; risk initially increased, then decreased, and finally plateaued as the number of prior HE episodes increased. IMPLICATIONS: Patients with a larger number of previous, overt HE episodes had a greater risk for subsequent episodes. However, mortality risk decreased after the third episode of HE. A plausible hypothesis to explain this finding is that risk of mortality may be reduced in patients receiving long-term rifaximin-α therapy.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer's disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer's disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer's disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer's disease (P = 4.9 × 10(-26)). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10(-19)). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77-80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer's disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer's disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.

Estimation of health-related utility (EQ-5D index) in subjects with seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis to evaluate health gain associated with sublingual grass allergen immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Grass allergen immunotherapy (AIT) reduces symptom severity in seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (ARC) but its impact on general health-related utility has not been characterised for the purposes of economic evaluation. The aim of this study was to model the preferred measure of utility, EQ-5D index, from symptom severity and estimate incremental quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with SQ-standardised grass immunotherapy tablet (GRAZAX®, 75,000 SQ-T/2,800 BAU, ALK, Denmark). METHODS: Data were analysed from five consecutive pollen seasons in a randomised placebo controlled trial of GRAZAX®. Binomial and Gaussian mixed effects modelling related weekly EQ-5D index score to daily symptom and medication scores (DSS & DMS respectively). In turn, daily EQ-5D index was estimated from ARC symptoms and medication use. RESULTS: DSS and DMS were the principal predictors of 'perfect' health (EQ-5D = 1.000; binomial) and 'imperfect' health (EQ-5D < 1.000; Gaussian). Each unit increase in DSS and DMS reduced the odds of 'perfect' health (EQ-5D = 1.000) by 27% and 16% respectively, and reduced 'imperfect' health by 0.17 and 0.13, respectively. Gender remained the only other significant main fixed effect (Male odds ratio [OR] = 1.82). Incremental estimated EQ-5D index utility for GRAZAX® was observed from day -30 to day +70 of the pooled pollen season; mean daily utility for GRAZAX® = 0.938 units (95%CI 0.932-0.943) vs. 0.914 (0.907-0.921) for placebo, an incremental difference of 0.0238 (p < 0.001). This translates into an incremental 0.0324 Quality Adjusted Life Years over the five year study period. CONCLUSIONS: ARC symptoms and medication use are the main predictors of EQ-5D index. The incremental QALYs observed for GRAZAX® may not fully describe the health benefits of this treatment, suggesting that economic modelling may be conservative.

External validation of the UKPDS risk engine in incident type 2 diabetes: a need for new type 2 diabetes-specific risk equations.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine (UKPDS-RE) for predicting the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease end points in an independent cohort of U.K. patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using routine health care data collected between April 1998 and October 2011 from ∼350 U.K. primary care practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants comprised 79,966 patients aged between 35 and 85 years (388,269 person-years) with 4,984 cardiovascular events. Four outcomes were evaluated: first diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, fatal CHD, and fatal stroke. RESULTS: Accounting for censoring, the observed versus predicted 10-year event rates were as follows: CHD 6.1 vs. 16.5%, fatal CHD 1.9 vs. 10.1%, stroke 7.0 vs. 10.1%, and fatal stroke 1.7 vs. 1.6%, respectively. The UKPDS-RE showed moderate discrimination for all four outcomes, with the concordance index values ranging from 0.65 to 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: The UKPDS stroke equations showed calibration ranging from poor to moderate; however, the CHD equations showed poor calibration and considerably overestimated CHD risk. There is a need for revised risk equations in type 2 diabetes.