ABSTRACT
We present a simple algorithm to identify Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of Florida in satellite imagery. It is based on an empirical analysis of collocated matchups of satellite and in situ measurements. The results of this Empirical Approach is compared to those of a Bio-optical Technique - taken from the published literature - and the Operational Method currently implemented by the NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System for K. brevis blooms. These three algorithms are evaluated using a multi-year MODIS data set (from July, 2002 to October, 2006) and a long-term in situ database. Matchup pairs, consisting of remotely-sensed ocean color parameters and near-coincident field measurements of K. brevis concentration, are used to assess the accuracy of the algorithms. Fair evaluation of the algorithms was only possible in the central west Florida shelf (i.e. between 25.75°N and 28.25°N) during the boreal Summer and Fall months (i.e. July to December) due to the availability of valid cloud-free matchups. Even though the predictive values of the three algorithms are similar, the statistical measure of success in red tide identification (defined as cell counts in excess of 1.5 × 10(4) cells L(-1)) varied considerably (sensitivity-Empirical: 86%; Bio-optical: 77%; Operational: 26%), as did their effectiveness in identifying non-bloom cases (specificity-Empirical: 53%; Bio-optical: 65%; Operational: 84%). As the Operational Method had an elevated frequency of false-negative cases (i.e. presented low accuracy in detecting known red tides), and because of the considerable overlap between the optical characteristics of the red tide and non-bloom population, only the other two algorithms underwent a procedure for further inspecting possible detection improvements. Both optimized versions of the Empirical and Bio-optical algorithms performed similarly, being equally specific and sensitive (~70% for both) and showing low levels of uncertainties (i.e. few cases of false-negatives and false-positives: ~30%)-improved positive predictive values (~60%) were also observed along with good negative predictive values (~80%).
ABSTRACT
In a continuing effort to develop suitable methods for the surveillance of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) of Karenia brevis using satellite radiometers, a new multi-algorithm method was developed to explore whether improvements in the remote sensing detection of the Florida Red Tide was possible. A Hybrid Scheme was introduced that sequentially applies the optimized versions of two pre-existing satellite-based algorithms: an Empirical Approach (using water-leaving radiance as a function of chlorophyll concentration) and a Bio-optical Technique (using particulate backscatter along with chlorophyll concentration). The long-term evaluation of the new multi-algorithm method was performed using a multi-year MODIS dataset (2002 to 2006; during the boreal Summer-Fall periods - July to December) along the Central West Florida Shelf between 25.75°N and 28.25°N. Algorithm validation was done with in situ measurements of the abundances of K. brevis; cell counts ≥1.5×10(4) cells l(-1) defined a detectable HAB. Encouraging statistical results were derived when either or both algorithms correctly flagged known samples. The majority of the valid match-ups were correctly identified (~80% of both HABs and non-blooming conditions) and few false negatives or false positives were produced (~20% of each). Additionally, most of the HAB-positive identifications in the satellite data were indeed HAB samples (positive predictive value: ~70%) and those classified as HAB-negative were almost all non-bloom cases (negative predictive value: ~86%). These results demonstrate an excellent detection capability, on average ~10% more accurate than the individual algorithms used separately. Thus, the new Hybrid Scheme could become a powerful tool for environmental monitoring of K. brevis blooms, with valuable consequences including leading to the more rapid and efficient use of ships to make in situ measurements of HABs.
