Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China.

As the major energy bases, numerous coal cities in China are facing severe challenges in terms of resources and environment. In order to overcome the disadvantages of static evaluation, this study selected Huainan city, a typical coal city in China, as the case, and combined with the improved SD (system dynamics) model, analyzed its RECC (resource and environmental carrying capacity) systematically and dynamically. Firstly, a SD model of RECC system including resource-environment and society-economy subsystem was constructed. Then, the control parameters were determined objectively according to the analysis results of BP-DEMATAL model. Thirdly, we designed 18 simulation scenarios based on orthogonal test to dynamically predict the development trend of RECC in different conditions. Results show that: (1) From 2019 to 2030, the RECC of Huainan is generally on the rise. (2) In all simulation scenarios, test 12 is the most effective way of improving RECC. (3) The factors with the greatest influence on the simulation results are GDP, output value of secondary production, total expending on environmental protection, and coal production. This study provides a reference for the analysis method of RECC and the sustainable development of coal cities.

Assessment of ecological vulnerability of resource-based cities based on entropy-set pair analysis.

ABSTRACTResource-based cities rise in the process of industrialization in China. These cities provide important resources for economic development of the country. However, due to the long-term and high-intensity exploitation of resources, resource-based cities are generally facing serious environmental pollution and ecological damages, which seriously threaten the survival and development of them. In order to evaluate and monitor ecological vulnerability of resource-based cities effectively, and solve the problem of fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation process, a comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy-set pair analysis has been built. First, the evaluation index system of resource-based cities' ecological vulnerability is constructed from four aspects of resource, economy, society and ecological environment. Second, the paper gets weights by entropy and evaluates vulnerability using the set pair theory. Finally, the level of ecological vulnerability of the case city is confirmed according to the principle of maximum connection degree. The results show that the evaluation indexes of resource, economy, society and ecological environment fluctuated but improved eventually in the year 2010 to 2016. And during this period, the ecological vulnerability of the case city changed from IV level to II level with a fluctuating state.