ABSTRACT
A total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China to Japan. All passengers were screened for symptoms and also undertook reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing, identifying 5 asymptomatic and 7 symptomatic passengers testing positive for 2019-nCoV. We show that the screening result is suggestive of the asymptomatic ratio at 41.6%.
ABSTRACT
The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside of China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number--the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naive population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December, 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January, 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% CI: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.
ABSTRACT
The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2-14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3-4 days without truncation and at 5-9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.
ABSTRACT
A Plio-Pleistocene to Holocene faunal sequence has been recovered from four carefully excavated caves in the Bubing Basin, adjacent to the larger Bose Basin of South China. The caves vary in elevation; we suggest that the higher caves were formed and filled with sediments prior to the lower caves. The highest deposits, which are from Mohui Cave, contain hominoid teeth and other fossilized remains of mammalian taxa most similar to late Pliocene and early Pleistocene faunas. Wuyun Cave ( approximately 50m lower in elevation than Mohui) contains a late middle Pleistocene fauna, which is supported by U-series age constraints from 350 to 200ka. Lower Pubu Cave ( approximately 23m below Wuyun) is assigned to the late Pleistocene, while the Cunkong Cave (the lowest, approximately 2m lower elevation than Lower Pubu) preserves a Holocene fauna. The four faunal assemblages indicate species-level changes in Ailuropoda, Stegodon, and Sus, the appearance of Elephas, the local disappearance of Stegodon, and the migration of Equus hemionus to South China. These initial results of our work call into question the continued value of the Stegodon/Ailuropoda Fauna, a category long used to characterize the Pleistocene faunas of South China. Excavation of karstic caves of varying elevation within the basins of South China holds promise for defining local sequences of mammalian fossils that can be used to investigate faunal variations related to climate change, biogeographic events, and evolutionary change over the past two million years. Stable isotopic analysis of a small sample of mammalian teeth from Bubing Basin caves is consistent with 100% C(3) vegetation in the Bubing/Bose region, with certain delta(13)C values consistent with a canopied woodland or forest. A preliminary assessment of the hominoid teeth indicates the presence of diverse molar and premolar morphologies including dental remains of Gigantopithecus blacki and a sample with similarities to the teeth reported from Longgupo.
