Prediction of extubation outcome in mechanically ventilated patients: Development and validation of the Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS).

Despite the best efforts of intensive care units (ICUs) professionals, the extubation failure rates in mechanically ventilated patients remain in the range of 5%-30%. Extubation failure is associated with increased risk of death and longer ICU stay. This study aimed to identify respiratory and non-respiratory parameters predictive of extubation outcome, and to use these predictors to develop and validate an "Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS)" that could be used to predict likelihood of extubation success in patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Derivation cohort was composed by patients aged ≥18 years admitted to the ICU and receiving IMV through an endotracheal tube for >24 hours. The weaning process followed the established ICU protocol. Clinical signs and ventilator parameters of patients were recorded during IMV, in the end phase of weaning in pressure support ventilation (PSV) mode, with inspiratory pressure of 7 cm H2O over the PEEP (positive end expiratory pressure). Patients who tolerated this ventilation were submitted to spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) with T-tube for 30 minutes. Those who passed the SBT and a subsequent cuff-leak test were extubated. The primary outcome of this study was extubation success at 48 hours. Parameters that showed statistically significant association with extubation outcome were further investigated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to assess their predictive value. The area under the curve (AUC) values were used to select parameters for inclusion in the ExPreS. Univariable logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis were performed to evaluate the performance of ExPreS. Patients' inclusion and statistical analyses for the prospective validation cohort followed the same criteria used for the derivation cohort and the decision to extubate was based on the ExPreS result. In the derivation cohort, a total of 110 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 101 (91.8%) patients and failed in 9 (8.2%) patients. Rapid shallow-breathing index (RSBI) in SBT, dynamic lung compliance, duration of IMV, muscle strength, estimated GCS, hematocrit, and serum creatinine were significantly associated with extubation outcome. These parameters, along with another parameter-presence of neurologic comorbidity-were used to create the ExPreS. The AUC value for the ExPreS was 0.875, which was higher than the AUCs of the individual parameters. The total ExPreS can range from 0 to 100. ExPreS ≥59 points indicated high probability of success (OR = 23.07), while ExPreS ≤44 points indicated low probability of success (OR = 0.82). In the prospective validation cohort, 83 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 81 (97.6%) patients and failed in 2 (2.4%) patients. The AUC value for the ExPreS in this cohort was 0.971. The multiparameter score that we propose, ExPreS, shows good accuracy to predict extubation outcome in patients receiving IMV in the ICU. In the prospective validation, the use of ExPreS decreased the extubation failure rate from 8.2% to 2.4%, even in a cohort of more severe patients.

Weight loss as a prognostic factor for recurrence and survival in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients.

Although the mortality rate of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has been decreasing over the last 30 years, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of diagnosis of this type of cancer in several countries. Beyond the classic prognostic factors, such as TNM stage, there is a lack of predictive factors for recurrence and treatment response. A retrospective analysis of patients with OPSCC treated at the Oncology Department of the Santa Terezinha University Hospital between 2007 and 2012 was performed, with the aim of identifying new prognostic factors. In addition to the significance of clinical stage as a prognostic factor for recurrence, OPSCC patients with advanced TNM stage and those treated with radiotherapy, chemoradiation or palliative measures, had a worse prognosis. Patients with moderate or severe weight loss (>5%) at diagnosis had a higher tumor recurrence rate compared with those with mild or no weight loss (P=0.007). Furthermore, 76.9% of patients with moderate or severe weight loss, as opposed to 13.3% of patients with mild or no weight loss, eventually succumbed to the disease (P=0.0001). These data suggest that moderate and severe weight loss at diagnosis is a prognostic factor for OPSCC and it is associated with disease recurrence.

Predictive factors of weaning from mechanical ventilation and extubation outcome: A systematic review.

PURPOSE: To identify, describe and discuss the parameters used to predict weaning from mechanical ventilation and extubation outcomes. METHODS: Systematic review of scientific articles using four electronic databases: PubMed, Embase, PEDro and Cochrane Library. Search terms included "weaning", "extubation", "withdrawal" and "discontinuation", combined with "mechanical ventilation" and "predictive factors", "predictive parameters" and "predictors for success". In this study, we included original articles that presented predictive factors for weaning or extubation outcomes in adult patients and not restricted to a single disease. Articles not written in English were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included, with a total of 7929 patients and 56 different parameters related to weaning and extubation outcomes. Rapid Shallow Breathing Index (RSBI) was the most common predictor, discussed in 15 studies (2159 patients), followed by Age and Maximum Inspiratory Pressure in seven studies. The other 53 parameters were found in less than six studies. CONCLUSION: There are several parameters used to predict weaning and extubation outcomes. RSBI was the most frequently studied and seems to be an important measurement tool in deciding whether to wean/extubate a patient. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that weaning and extubation should be guided by several parameters, and not only to respiratory ones.