ABSTRACT
The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision-making in disaster risk reduction.
Subject(s)
Disasters/economics , Models, Econometric , Vulnerable Populations , Disaster Planning/economics , Humans , Risk Assessment/methodsABSTRACT
Small disasters are usually the product of climate variability and climate change. Analysis of them illustrates that they increase difficulties for local development-frequently affecting the livelihoods of poor people and perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity-and entail challenges for a country's development. In contrast to extreme events, small disasters are often invisible at the national level and their effects are not considered as relevant from a macroeconomic standpoint. Nevertheless, their accumulated impact causes economic, environmental and social problems. This paper presents the results of an evaluation of the DesInventar database, developed in 1994 by the Network for Social Studies in Disaster Prevention in Latin America. In addition, it proposes a new version of the Local Disaster Index developed in 2005 within the framework of the Disaster Risk and Management Indicators Program for the Americas, with the support of the Inter-American Development Bank.
Subject(s)
Databases, Factual , Disasters/economics , Poverty Areas , Vulnerable Populations , Climate Change/economics , Colombia , Humans , Models, EconomicABSTRACT
El Puente Warth fue diseñado y construido a pricipios de los años setenta, con códigos sísmicos ahora obsoletos. Por lo tanto, era necesario una revisión de su comportamiento actual para la toma de futuras decisiones sobre su mantenimiento o rehabilitación. En este artículo se muestra el análisis realizado para definir la vulnerabilidad sísmica de esta estructura, considerando un método simplificado de evaluación del daño máximo y la aplicación de la simulación por Monte Carlo para definir la respuesta probable del puente. En este análisis, se tomaron en cuenta las incertidumbres inherentes a las propiedades estructurales y a la excitación sísmica externa, mediante dos escenarios sísmicos. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que bajo algunas condiciones de carga deberían ser consideradas posibles reparaciones moderadas(AU)
