Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy.

Wildfire regimes affected by global change have been the cause of major concern in recent years. Both direct prevention (e.g., fuel management planning) and land governance strategies (e.g., agroforestry development) can have an indirect regulatory effect on wildfires. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that active land planning and management in Italy have mitigated wildfire impacts in terms of loss of ecosystem services and forest cover, and burned wildland-urban interface, from 2007 to 2017. At the national scale, we assessed the effect size of major potential fire drivers such as climate, weather, flammability, socio-economic descriptors, land use changes, and proxies for land governance (e.g., European funds for rural development, investments in sustainable forest management, agro-pastoral activities), including potential interactions, on fire-related impacts via Random Forest modelling and Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Agro-forest districts (i.e., aggregations of neighbouring municipalities with homogeneous forest and agricultural characteristics) were used as spatial units of analysis. Our results confirm that territories with more active land governance show lower wildfire impacts, even under severe flammability and climatic conditions. This study supports current regional, national, and European strategies towards "fire resistant and resilient landscapes" by fostering agro-forestry, rural development, and nature conservation integrated policies.

Urban Growth, Land-use Efficiency and Local Socioeconomic Context: A Comparative Analysis of 417 Metropolitan Regions in Europe.

The present study presents a multidimensional analysis of land-use efficiency in terms of per-capita built-up area over 417 metropolitan regions from 27 European countries. The study period encompasses two urban phases including economic expansion (2000-2007) and crisis (2008-2015). Multiple geographical gradients were identified as relevant predictors of land-use efficiency across Europe. The socioeconomic variables most associated with high land-use efficiency were per-capita disposable income (in Western, Atlantic and Central Europe) and income growth during 2000-2007 (in Eastern Europe), indicating that wealthier cities are characterized by higher land-use efficiency. Land-use efficiency increased in contexts with diversified urban landscapes.

Paths to Change: Bio-Economic Factors, Geographical Gradients and the Land-Use Structure of Italy.

This study introduces a bio-economic approach to evaluate the influence of local socioeconomic contexts on complex processes of landscape transformation (urbanization, withdrawal of farming with woodland creation and loss in crop mosaics) in a sustainable development perspective. Land-use and socioeconomic indicators (including shares of agriculture, industry and services in total product, per-worker value added, productivity by economic sector, distance from central cities, latitude and elevation) at the local district scale in Italy have been considered together in an exploratory approach based on multivariate statistics. The combined use of land-use and socioeconomic indicators was preferred to more traditional approaches based on single-variable analysis and allows identifying latent factors of landscape transformation at the local scale. Our approach sheds light in the intimate relationship between regional economic structures and land-use change in districts with varying socio-environmental attributes across Italy. Urban-rural divides, coastal-inland dichotomy and the elevation gradient were relevant factors shaping urbanization-driven landscape transformations at the country scale. Indicators of economic structure (and especially industrial production and per-worker productivity of industry and services) were also documented to influence greatly entity and direction of change in the use of land. Discontinuous and dispersed urbanization has been demonstrated to be spatially-decoupled from consolidated (continuous and compact) urbanization, expanding into undeveloped rural areas progressively far away from central cities and being spatially associated with forest land.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest ecosystems over the future.

Towards a sampling strategy for the assessment of forest condition at European level: combining country estimates.

A correct characterization of the status and trend of forest condition is essential to support reporting processes at national and international level. An international forest condition monitoring has been implemented in Europe since 1987 under the auspices of the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The monitoring is based on harmonized methodologies, with individual countries being responsible for its implementation. Due to inconsistencies and problems in sampling design, however, the ICP Forests network is not able to produce reliable quantitative estimates of forest condition at European and sometimes at country level. This paper proposes (1) a set of requirements for status and change assessment and (2) a harmonized sampling strategy able to provide unbiased and consistent estimators of forest condition parameters and of their changes at both country and European level. Under the assumption that a common definition of forest holds among European countries, monitoring objectives, parameters of concern and accuracy indexes are stated. On the basis of fixed-area plot sampling performed independently in each country, an unbiased and consistent estimator of forest defoliation indexes is obtained at both country and European level, together with conservative estimators of their sampling variance and power in the detection of changes. The strategy adopts a probabilistic sampling scheme based on fixed-area plots selected by means of systematic or stratified schemes. Operative guidelines for its application are provided.

Extending large-scale forest inventories to assess urban forests.

Urban areas are continuously expanding today, extending their influence on an increasingly large proportion of woods and trees located in or nearby urban and urbanizing areas, the so-called urban forests. Although these forests have the potential for significantly improving the quality the urban environment and the well-being of the urban population, data to quantify the extent and characteristics of urban forests are still lacking or fragmentary on a large scale. In this regard, an expansion of the domain of multipurpose forest inventories like National Forest Inventories (NFIs) towards urban forests would be required. To this end, it would be convenient to exploit the same sampling scheme applied in NFIs to assess the basic features of urban forests. This paper considers approximately unbiased estimators of abundance and coverage of urban forests, together with estimators of the corresponding variances, which can be achieved from the first phase of most large-scale forest inventories. A simulation study is carried out in order to check the performance of the considered estimators under various situations involving the spatial distribution of the urban forests over the study area. An application is worked out on the data from the Italian NFI.

Landscape--wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management.

Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with major knowledge gaps.

Assessment of forest net primary production through the elaboration of multisource ground and remote sensing data.

This paper builds on previous work by our research group which demonstrated the applicability of a parametric model, Modified C-Fix, for the monitoring of Mediterranean forests. Specifically, the model is capable of combining ground and remote sensing data to estimate forest gross primary production (GPP) on various spatial and temporal scales. Modified C-Fix is currently applied to all Italian forest areas using a previously produced data set of meteorological data and NDVI imagery descriptive of a ten-year period (1999-2008). The obtained GPP estimates are further elaborated to derive forest net primary production (NPP) averages for 20 Italian Regions. Such estimates, converted into current annual increment of standing volume (CAI) through the use of specific coefficients, are compared to the data of a recent national forest inventory (INFC). The results obtained indicate that the modelling approach tends to overestimate the ground CAI values for all forest types. The correction of a drawback in the current model implementation leads to reduce this overestimation to about 9% of the INFC increments. The possible origins of this overestimation are investigated by examining the results of previous studies and of older forest inventories. The implications of using different NPP estimation methods are finally discussed in view of assessing the forest carbon budget on a national basis.