Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest.

Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

Major Regional-Scale Production of O3 and Secondary Organic Aerosol in Remote Amazon Regions from the Dynamics and Photochemistry of Urban and Forest Emissions.

The Amazon rainforest suffers increasing pressure from anthropogenic activities. A key aspect not fully understood is how anthropogenic atmospheric emissions within the basin interact with biogenic emissions and impact the forest's atmosphere and biosphere. We combine a high-resolution atmospheric chemical transport model with an improved emissions inventory and in-situ measurements to investigate a surprisingly high concentration of ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) 150-200 km downwind of Manaus city in an otherwise pristine forested region. We show that atmospheric dynamics and photochemistry determine a gross production of secondary pollutants seen in the simulation. After sunrise, the erosion of the nocturnal boundary layer mixes natural forest emissions, rich in biogenic volatile organic compounds, with a lofted pollution layer transported overnight, rich in nitrogen oxides and formaldehyde. As a result, O3 and SOA concentrations greater than ∼47 ppbv and 1.8 µg m-3, respectively, were found, with maximum concentrations occurring at 2 pm LT, 150-200 km downwind of Manaus city. These high concentrations affect a large primary forested area of about 11,250 km2. These oxidative areas are under a NOx-limited regime so that changes in NOx emissions from Manaus have a significant impact on O3 and SOA production.

Urban pollution greatly enhances formation of natural aerosols over the Amazon rainforest.

One of the least understood aspects in atmospheric chemistry is how urban emissions influence the formation of natural organic aerosols, which affect Earth's energy budget. The Amazon rainforest, during its wet season, is one of the few remaining places on Earth where atmospheric chemistry transitions between preindustrial and urban-influenced conditions. Here, we integrate insights from several laboratory measurements and simulate the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the Amazon using a high-resolution chemical transport model. Simulations show that emissions of nitrogen-oxides from Manaus, a city of ~2 million people, greatly enhance production of biogenic SOA by 60-200% on average with peak enhancements of 400%, through the increased oxidation of gas-phase organic carbon emitted by the forests. Simulated enhancements agree with aircraft measurements, and are much larger than those reported over other locations. The implication is that increasing anthropogenic emissions in the future might substantially enhance biogenic SOA in pristine locations like the Amazon.

Organosulfates in aerosols downwind of an urban region in central Amazon.

Organosulfates are formed in the atmosphere from reactions between reactive organic compounds (such as oxidation products of isoprene) and acidic sulfate aerosol. Here we investigated speciated organosulfates in an area typically downwind of the city of Manaus situated in the Amazon forest in Brazil during "GoAmazon2014/5" in both the wet season (February-March) and dry season (August-October). We observe products consistent with the reaction of isoprene photooxidation products and sulfate aerosols, leading to formation of several types of isoprene-derived organosulfates, which contribute 3% up to 42% of total sulfate aerosol measured by aerosol mass spectrometry. During the wet season the average contribution of summed organic sulfate concentrations to total sulfate was 19 ± 10% and similarly during the dry season the contribution was 19 ± 8%. This is the highest fraction of speciated organic sulfate to total sulfate observed at any reported site. Organosulfates appeared to be dominantly formed from isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX), averaging 104 ± 73 ng m-3 (range 15-328 ng m-3) during the wet season, with much higher abundance 610 ± 400 ng m-3 (range 86-1962 ng m-3) during the dry season. The concentration of isoprene-derived organic sulfate correlated with total inorganic sulfate (R2 = 0.35 and 0.51 during the wet and dry seasons, respectively), implying the significant influence of inorganic sulfate aerosol for the heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX. Organosulfates also contributed to organic matter in aerosols (3.5 ± 1.9% during the wet season and 5.1 ± 2.5% during the dry season). The present study shows that an important fraction of sulfate in aerosols in the Amazon downwind of Manaus consists of multifunctional organic chemicals formed in the atmosphere, and that increased SO2 emissions would substantially increase SOA formation from isoprene.

Substantial convection and precipitation enhancements by ultrafine aerosol particles.

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain the largest uncertainty in climate projections. Ultrafine aerosol particles smaller than 50 nanometers (UAP<50) can be abundant in the troposphere but are conventionally considered too small to affect cloud formation. Observational evidence and numerical simulations of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the Amazon show that DCCs forming in a low-aerosol environment can develop very large vapor supersaturation because fast droplet coalescence reduces integrated droplet surface area and subsequent condensation. UAP<50 from pollution plumes that are ingested into such clouds can be activated to form additional cloud droplets on which excess supersaturation condenses and forms additional cloud water and latent heating, thus intensifying convective strength. This mechanism suggests a strong anthropogenic invigoration of DCCs in previously pristine regions of the world.

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks.

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system.

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.

Amazon boundary layer aerosol concentration sustained by vertical transport during rainfall.

The nucleation of atmospheric vapours is an important source of new aerosol particles that can subsequently grow to form cloud condensation nuclei in the atmosphere. Most field studies of atmospheric aerosols over continents are influenced by atmospheric vapours of anthropogenic origin (for example, ref. 2) and, in consequence, aerosol processes in pristine, terrestrial environments remain poorly understood. The Amazon rainforest is one of the few continental regions where aerosol particles and their precursors can be studied under near-natural conditions, but the origin of small aerosol particles that grow into cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon boundary layer remains unclear. Here we present aircraft- and ground-based measurements under clean conditions during the wet season in the central Amazon basin. We find that high concentrations of small aerosol particles (with diameters of less than 50 nanometres) in the lower free troposphere are transported from the free troposphere into the boundary layer during precipitation events by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the trailing stratiform region. This rapid vertical transport can help to maintain the population of particles in the pristine Amazon boundary layer, and may therefore influence cloud properties and climate under natural conditions.

Satellite retrieval of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations by using clouds as CCN chambers.

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25° restricts the satellite coverage to ∼25% of the world area in a single day.

Atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia and land use change: from natural biogenic to biomass burning conditions.

In the wet season, a large portion of the Amazon region constitutes one of the most pristine continental areas, with very low concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and aerosol particles. However, land use change modifies the biosphere-atmosphere interactions in such a way that key processes that maintain the functioning of Amazonia are substantially altered. This study presents a comparison between aerosol properties observed at a preserved forest site in Central Amazonia (TT34 North of Manaus) and at a heavily biomass burning impacted site in south-western Amazonia (PVH, close to Porto Velho). Amazonian aerosols were characterized in detail, including aerosol size distributions, aerosol light absorption and scattering, optical depth and aerosol inorganic and organic composition, among other properties. The central Amazonia site (TT34) showed low aerosol concentrations (PM2.5 of 1.3 +/- 0.7 microg m(-3) and 3.4 +/- 2.0 microg m(-3) in the wet and dry seasons, respectively), with a median particle number concentration of 220 cm(-3) in the wet season and 2200 cm(-3) in the dry season. At the impacted site (PVH), aerosol loadings were one order of magnitude higher (PM2.5 of 10.2 +/- 9.0 microg m(-3) and 33.0 +/- 36.0 microg m(-3) in the wet and dry seasons, respectively). The aerosol number concentration at the impacted site ranged from 680 cm(-3) in the wet season up to 20 000 cm(-3) in the dry season. An aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM) was deployed in 2013 at both sites, and it shows that organic aerosol account to 81% to the non-refractory PM1 aerosol loading at TT34, while biomass burning aerosols at PVH shows a 93% content of organic particles. Three years of filter-based elemental composition measurements shows that sulphate at the impacted site decreases, on average, from 12% of PM2.5 mass during the wet season to 5% in the dry season. This result corroborates the ACSM finding that the biomass burning contributed overwhelmingly to the organic fine mode aerosol during the dry season in this region. Aerosol light scattering and absorption coefficients at the TT34 site were low during the wet season, increasing by a factor of 5, approximately, in the dry season due to long range transport of biomass burning aerosols reaching the forest site in the dry season. Aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) ranged from 0.84 in the wet season up to 0.91 in the dry. At the PVH site, aerosol scattering coefficients were 3-5 times higher in comparison to the TT34 site, an indication of strong regional background pollution, even in the wet season. Aerosol absorption coefficients at PVH were about 1.4 times higher than at the forest site. Ground-based SSA at PVH was around 0.92 year round, showing the dominance of scattering aerosol particles over absorption, even for biomass burning aerosols. Remote sensing observations from six AERONET sites and from MODIS since 1999, provide a regional and temporal overview. Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm of less than 0.1 is characteristic of natural conditions over Amazonia. At the perturbed PVH site, AOD550 values greater than 4 were frequently observed in the dry season. Combined analysis of MODIS and CERES showed that the mean direct radiative forcing of aerosols at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) during the biomass burning season was -5.6 +/- 1.7 W m(-2), averaged over whole Amazon Basin. For high AOD (larger than 1) the maximum daily direct aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA was as high as -20 W m(-2) locally. This change in the radiation balance caused increases in the diffuse radiation flux, with an increase of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of 18-29% for high AOD. From this analysis, it is clear that land use change in Amazonia shows alterations of many atmospheric properties, and these changes are affecting the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem in significant ways.