ABSTRACT
Larval dispersal and juvenile survival are crucial in determining variation in recruitment, stock size and adult distribution of commercially important fish. This study investigates the dispersal of early-life stages of common sole (Solea solea L.) in the southern North Sea, both empirically and through modeling. Age at different life-history events of juvenile flatfish sampled along the coasts of Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in 2013, 2014 and 2016, was determined through the counting of daily growth rings in the otoliths. Juveniles captured between August and October were estimated to be on average 140 days old with an average pelagic larval duration of 34 days. The hatching period was estimated between early April and mid-May followed by arrival and settlement in the nurseries between May and mid-June. Growth rates were higher off the Belgian coast than in the other nursery areas, especially in 2013, possibly due to a post-settlement differentiation. Empirical pelagic larval duration and settlement distributions were compared with the Larvae&Co larval dispersal model, which combines local hydrodynamics in the North Sea with sole larval behavior. Yearly predicted and observed settlement matched partially, but the model estimated a longer pelagic phase. The observations fitted even better with the modelled average (1995-2015) distribution curves. Aberrant results for the small juvenile sole sampled along the UK coast in March 2016, led to the hypothesis of a winter disruption in the deposition of daily growth rings, potentially related to starvation and lower food availability. The similarities between measured and modelled distribution curves cross-validated both types of estimations and accredited daily ageing of juveniles as a useful method to calibrate biophysical models and to understand early-life history of fish, both important tools in support of efficient fisheries management strategies.
Subject(s)
Flatfishes , Otolithic Membrane , Animals , Ecosystem , Fisheries , LarvaABSTRACT
Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (-9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (-58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention -4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management.
