The relation between experience and outcome in heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Current policies related to organ transplantation in the United States are designed to ensure that centers and physicians with experience in transplantation perform these procedures. It is essential to confirm the validity of such policies, since they may limit access to transplantation services. METHODS: To determine the relation between experience with heart transplantation and mortality after the procedure, we merged data from the registry of the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation with data from a survey that provided additional information about patients and transplantation centers. Our study included 1123 patients who received a heart transplant at one of 56 hospitals in the United States from 1984 through 1986. We used univariate and bivariate techniques, as well as logistic regression, to analyze our data. RESULTS: We observed an institutional learning curve for heart transplantation. Patients who received one of a center's first five transplants had higher mortality rates than patients who received a subsequent transplant (20 percent vs. 12 percent; P = 0.002; relative risk = 2.2; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.6 to 3.4). In addition, we found a correlation between the training of key personnel on the transplantation team and mortality at new transplantation centers. For example, new centers staffed by cardiologists with previous training in heart transplantation had lower mortality rates among heart-transplant recipients than centers without experienced cardiologists (7 percent vs. 16 percent; P = 0.001; relative risk = 2.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.9). By contrast, the previous training of the surgeons who performed transplantations was not related to the mortality rate associated with the procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Experience with heart transplantation is associated with a better outcome for patients after that procedure. Opportunities exist to refine transplantation policies on the basis of the experience of a center and its transplantation team and to develop similar policies for other forms of organ transplantation.

The decision between single- and combined-modality therapy in Hodgkin's disease.

Using the technique of decision analysis to evaluate data on single-modality and combined-modality therapy in Hodgkin's disease, we have been able to determine which treatment gives the best chance for prolonged disease-free survival in given settings. Both the potential of combined-modality therapy for inducing secondary hematologic malignancies and the rate of salvage with MOPP following relapse after radiotherapy have been studied to observe the effect of different rates of these variables on the therapeutic decision. An analysis of patients with known pathologic stage endorsed the continued use of extended-mantle radiotherapy for Stages IA and IIA disease; under most of the conditions analyzed, combined-modality therapy appeared the best option for Stage IIIA disease. The results for Stages IB and IIB disease showed neither combined-modality therapy nor total nodal irradiation to have a conclusive advantage. We also analyzed management decisions for patients who had not had pathologic staging. For this, probabilities of each pathologic stage were derived from a large patient data base and were incorporated into the decision analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that, despite the mortality of laparotomy, treatment designated according to pathologic stage was more effective than immediate combined-modality therapy for most types of patients. For certain patients in whom the clinical features could be used to predict a high probability of advanced disease, the most effective management was immediate MOPP chemotherapy without staging laparotomy.

The decision to perform staging laparotomy in symptomatic Hodgin's disease.

This study defines patients with symptomatic Hodgkin's disease for whom risks of staging laparotomy (LAP) outweigh benefits conferred by accurate knowledge of stage. From a database of more than 900 pathologically-staged patients, probabilities of pathological stage are calculated for combinations of basic findings and lymphangiogram results. Decision-making thresholds are defined at which results of treatment after LAP, taking operative mortality into account, are equivalent to immediate treatment appropriate to clinical stage. These thresholds are substantially altered by varying LAP mortality estimates, by assigning a false negative rate to LAP, and by considering uncertainty in treatment results. Fifty-four combinations of findings are described for which immediate therapy with MOPP is justified; total nodal irradiation (TNI) is never indicated in B patients without prior LAP staging. Analysing 94 B patients who had LAP showed an appreciable number might have been spared this, particularly when uncertainty in treatment results is considered. With 0.03 (=3%) uncertainty in treatment, and 1% LAP mortality, LAP was not indicated in one in seven patients; nearly one third of patients should have immediate treatment with 3% LAP mortality. Threshold analysis can define those patients for whom risks of LAP outweigh benefits.