Sex-specific recruitment rates contribute to male-biased sex ratio in Adélie penguins.

Sex-related differences in vital rates that drive population change reflect the basic life history of a species. However, for visually monomorphic bird species, determining the effect of sex on demographics can be a challenge. In this study, we investigated the effect of sex on apparent survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity in the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), a monochromatic, slightly size dimorphic species with known age, known sex, and known breeding history data collected during 1996-2019 (n = 2127 birds) from three breeding colonies on Ross Island, Antarctica. Using a multistate capture-mark-recapture maximum-likelihood model, we estimated apparent survival (S^), recapture (resighting) probability (p^), and the probability of transitioning among breeding states and moving between colonies (ψ^; colony-specific non-juvenile pre-breeders, breeders, and non-breeders). Survival rate varied by breeding status and colony, but not sex, and pre-breeders had higher survival rates than breeders and non-breeders. Females had a higher probability of recruiting into the breeding population each year and may enter the breeding pool at younger ages. In contrast, both sexes had the same probability of breeding from year to year once they had recruited. Although we detected no direct sex effects on survival, the variation in recruitment probability and age-at-first reproduction, along with lower survival rates of breeders compared to pre-breeders, likely leads to shorter lifespans for females. This is supported by our findings of a male-biased mean adult sex ratio (ASR) of 1.4 males for every female (x^ proportion of males = 0.57, SD = 0.07) across all colonies and years in this metapopulation. Our study illustrates how important it can be to disentangle sex-related variation in population vital rates, particularly for species with complex life histories and demographic dynamics.

Age-related reproductive performance of the Adélie penguin, a long-lived seabird exhibiting similar outcomes regardless of individual life-history strategy.

Age-related variation in reproductive performance in long-lived iteroparous vertebrate species is common, with performance being influenced by within-individual processes, such as improvement and senescence, in combination with among-individual processes, such as selective appearance and disappearance. Few studies of age-related reproductive performance have compared the role of these drivers within a metapopulation, subject to varying degrees of resource competition. We accounted for within- and among-individual changes among known-aged Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae during 17 years (1997-2013), at three clustered colonies of disparate size, to understand patterns in age-related reproductive success during early and late adulthood. Age at first reproduction (AFR) was lowest, and number of breeding attempts highest, at the largest colony. Regardless of AFR, success improved with early post-recruitment experience. For both oldest and youngest recruitment groups, peak performance occurred at the end of their reproductive life span indicating a possible cost of reproduction. Intermediate recruitment groups reached peak performance in their mid-reproductive life span and with intermediate breeding experience, before decreasing. Breeding success was lowest for the initial breeding attempt regardless of AFR, but we observed subsequent variation relative to recruitment age. Gaining experience by delaying recruitment positively influenced reproductive performance early in the reproductive life span and was most evident for the youngest breeders. Oldest recruits had the highest initial and peak breeding success. Differences in AFR resulted in trade-offs in reproductive life span or timing of senescence but not in the overall number of breeding attempts. Patterns differed as a function of colony size, and thus competition for resources. Early life improvement in performance at the larger colonies was primarily due to within-individual factors and at the largest colony, AFR. Regardless of colony size late-life performance was positively related to the age at last reproduction, indicating selective disappearance of lower performing individuals. These results highlight that different life-history strategies were equally successful, indicating that individuals can overcome potential trade-offs associated with early- and late-life performance. These results have important implications for understanding the evolution of life-history strategies responsible for driving population change.

Trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation.

There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50 °C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

Working less to gain more: when breeding quality relates to foraging efficiency.

In animal populations, a minority of individuals consistently achieves the highest breeding success and therefore contributes the most recruits to future generations. On average, foraging performance is important in determining breeding success at the population level, but evidence is scarce to show that more successful breeders (better breeders) forage differently than less successful ones (poorer breeders). To test this hypothesis, we used a 10-year, three-colony, individual-based longitudinal data set on breeding success and foraging parameters of a long-lived bird, the Adélie Penguin, Pygoscelis adeliae. Better breeders foraged more efficiently than poorer breeders under harsh environmental conditions and when offspring needs were higher, therefore gaining higher net energy profit to be allocated to reproduction and survival. These results imply that adverse "extrinsic" conditions might select breeding individuals on the basis of their foraging ability. Adélie Penguins show sufficient phenotypic plasticity that at least a portion of the population is capable of surviving and successfully reproducing despite extreme variability in their physical and biological environment, variability that is likely to be associated with climate change and, ultimately, with the species' evolution. This study is the first to demonstrate the importance of "extrinsic" conditions (in terms of environmental conditions and offspring needs) on the relationship between foraging behavior and individual quality.

Survival differences and the effect of environmental instability on breeding dispersal in an Adelie penguin meta-population.

High survival and breeding philopatry was previously confirmed for the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) during a period of stable environmental conditions. However, movements of breeding adults as a result of an unplanned natural experiment within a four-colony meta-population provided interesting insights into this species' population dynamics. We used multistate mark-recapture models to investigate apparent survival and dispersal of breeding birds in the southwestern Ross Sea during 12 breeding seasons (1996-2007). The natural experiment was facilitated by the temporary grounding of two immense icebergs that (i) erected a veritable fence separating colonies and altering migration routes and (ii) added additional stress by trapping extensive sea ice in the region during 5 of 12 y. Colony size varied by orders of magnitude, allowing investigation of apparent survival and dispersal rates in relation to both environmental conditions and colony size within this meta-population. Apparent survival was lowest for the smallest colony (4,000 pairs) and similar for the medium (45,000 pairs) and large colonies (155,000 pairs), despite increased foraging effort expended by breeders at the largest colony. Dispersal of breeding birds was low (<1%), except during years of difficult environmental conditions when movements increased, especially away from the smallest colony (3.5%). Decreased apparent survival at the smallest colony could reflect differences in migration chronology and winter habitat use compared with the other colonies, or it may reflect increased permanent emigration to colonies outside this meta-population. Contrary to current thought, breeding penguins are not always philopatric. Rather, stressful conditions can significantly increase dispersal rates.