From extreme weather to impacts: The role of the areas of concern maps in the JRC MARS bulletin.

Each month the JRC issues the MARS Bulletin detailing the agro-meteorological and expert analysis underpinning the assessment of European crops' status and yield forecasts. In this context a resume is provided to give an overview on the geographical distribution of eventual crop damages. The MARS Bulletin provides such information in a set of synthetic maps (Areas of Concern), produced in each Bulletin, depicting extreme weather events and their impact on crops that have occurred in Europe during the analysis period. The present article describes the mix of quantitative and qualitative datasets and methodologies that drive the delineation of the Areas of Concern (AOC) maps and evaluates their capability to resemble crop production losses. The quantitative analysis is based on the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) indicators coming from meteorological models, crop growth models and remote sensing data. Indicators are considered in absolute and relative terms and in their relation with standard statistical metrics. The outcome of the quantitative analysis is a set of potential Areas of Concern. Experts' judgment is thus necessary to discriminate potential results through a qualitative analysis focused on: past occurred events and climatologic conditions; agro-management practices; regional agricultural systems peculiarity and their historical resilience and resistance to adverse conditions. In this article the experts' judgment of the team of current MARS analysts, as used in the AOC analysis, is translated into a warning index. Such index condenses the specific contribution to the final production of each development stage and the adverse agrometeorological events occurred, as depicted into the AOC maps. The warning index is computed at country scale for the past five agricultural seasons, from season 2011-2012 to season 2015-2016. Two crops are considered, winter wheat and grain maize as proxy for winter and summer crop groups. The warning indexes calculated are then compared to the national production in a qualitative way. To support the analysis few study cases are presented. The findings of this article highlight that the events depicted in the AOC maps are informative about production losses and specific knowledge is needed to full understand the information carried.

In-season performance of European Union wheat forecasts during extreme impacts.

Here we assess the quality and in-season development of European wheat (Triticum spp.) yield forecasts during low, medium, and high-yielding years. 440 forecasts were evaluated for 75 wheat forecast years from 1993-2013 for 25 European Union (EU) Member States. By July, years with median yields were accurately forecast with errors below ~2%. Yield forecasts in years with low yields were overestimated by ~10%, while yield forecasts in high-yielding years were underestimated by ~8%. Four-fifths of the lowest yields had a drought or hot driver, a third a wet driver, while a quarter had both. Forecast accuracy of high-yielding years improved gradually during the season, and drought-driven yield reductions were anticipated with lead times of ~2 months. Single, contrasting successive in-season, as well as spatially distant dry and wet extreme synoptic weather systems affected multiple-countries in 2003, '06, '07, '11 and 12', leading to wheat losses up to 8.1 Mt (>40% of total EU loss). In these years, June forecasts (~ 1-month lead-time) underestimated these impacts by 10.4 to 78.4%. To cope with increasingly unprecedented impacts, near-real-time information fusion needs to underpin operational crop yield forecasting to benefit from improved crop modelling, more detailed and frequent earth observations, and faster computation.

Serotonin content of platelets in inflammatory rheumatic diseases. Correlation with clinical activity.

Significantly decreased platelet serotonin contents were measured in rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), progressive systemic sclerosis, and mixed connective tissue disease. An inverse relationship between platelet serotonin levels and clinical disease activity was observed in both rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus. SLE patients with multiple organ involvement showed the lowest platelet serotonin values. No correlation was observed between platelet serotonin contents and nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug treatment, presence of circulating platelet reactive IgG, or the amount of circulating immune complexes. The results are interpreted as indicating platelet release occurring in vivo during inflammatory episodes of the rheumatic disorders investigated.

Platelets as target cells in rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus: a platelet specific immunoglobulin inducing the release reaction.

Sera from patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) were assessed for in vitro platelet activation as measured by serotonin release; 24% (30) of 124 tested RA sera and 51% (35) of 69 SLE sera induced a significant 3H serotonin release. Investigation of 17 synovial fluid samples from RA patients revealed significant release in 82%. Concomitant testing for lymphocytotoxic antibodies and immune complexes did not show any correlation to platelet activation. Upon gel filtration the release-inducing activity of positive sera was localized in the region of 160 000 Daltons. Further characterization by ion exchange chromatography, immune electrophoresis, chromatographic and SDS PAGE molecular weight determinations, as well as analytical ultracentrifugation all confirmed the IgG nature of the release-inducing protein. Negative blocking experiments performed by preincubation of platelets with Fc-IgG fragments prior to challenge with a release-inducing serum excluded the participation of Fc receptors in the reaction. It was concluded that the release was caused by a platelet reactive IgG antibody. This antibody may also cause release of platelet mediators in vivo and may thus contribute to the pathogenesis of the generalized vasculopathy in both diseases.

Immune complexes in multiple sclerosis: relation to clinical pattern.

Using a C1q binding test, circulating immune complexes (IC) were detected in 33.3% of sera from 138 patients and in 19.4% of 124 spinal fluid samples from patients with multiple sclerosis. Most often they occur in sera alone. As a rule their detectable amount is small in sera as well as in spinal fluids. IC were observed with equal frequency during acute exacerbations and in stable phases of the disease. In patients with early MS of less than 3 months duration, IC were detected only rarely, whereas their frequency increased up to 50% in patients with longer standing disease. Immunosuppressive therapy has no influence on IC formation. Patients with immune complexes exhibited a more rapid clinical deterioration if compared as a group with IC-negativ ones. No correlations were found between immune complex formation and the CSF-IgG index or the rate of pleocytosis in spinal fluids. Neither the complement factors C3, C4, C3A nor total hemolytic complement activities (CH50) in serum were significantly decreased in patients with IC formation in serum as compared with the IC-negative group. The results demonstrate that IC formation probably is of no importance in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

Cerebrospinal fluid immune complexes in multiple sclerosis.

Using a C1q binding test, immune complexes have been detected in one half of cerebrospinal fluid samples from patients with multiple sclerosis. These results provide additional evidence for the participation of an immune reaction in the disease process.

[Quantitative determination of serum proteins using a new laser nephelometer (author's transl)]. / Quantitative Bestimmung von Serum-Proteinen mit einem neuen Laser-Nephelometer.

Methodological aspects of quantitative serum protein determinations, using a newly developed laser nephelometer (PDQTM laser nephelometer, Hyland), are reported. For within-day precision, determination of the four serum proteins IgG, IgA, IgM and C'3, showed coefficients of variation between 2.5% and 4.6%. For precision from day to day, the average variation coefficient was 8%, the lowest value being 5%. Provisional normal values for the four proteins were ascertained from a small group of 60 healthy individuals. These results, as well as those obtained in states of disease, correlate with values obtained by radial immunodiffusion. It is concluded that the method is reliable, and has a number of important advantages compared to radial immunodiffusion; namely, the much higher precision, better sensitivity, particularly in lower concentration ranges, and availability of results within two hours.