Dose versus diagnosis: iatrogenic radiation exposure by multidetector computerised tomography in an academic emergency department with measurement of clinically actionable results and emergently treatable findings.

AIM: To determine the iatrogenic absorbed dosage of radiation of the patient in milligray (mGy) computerised tomography dose index volume (CTDIvol) when tested with multidetector computerised tomography (MDCT) in the emergency department (ED) setting and calculate the absorbed dosage of radiation per clinically actionable result and emergently treatable finding (ETF). SETTING: The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) ED located in Galveston, Texas, USA, is a level 1 trauma and tertiary referral centre treating 70,000 patients per annum. METHOD: A retrospective cross-sectional data analysis of 770 emergency patients investigated by MDCT in July 2007. The presence of actionable results and ETF were determined by chart review. RESULTS: A total of 5320 emergency patients was treated in the UTMB ED in July 2007. This included 4508 medical and 812 trauma patients. A total of 1094 MDCT studies was performed, of which complete data were available on 1046. A total of 770 patients was investigated by MDCT, representing 14.47% of all emergency patients. This included 33.99% of trauma patients and 10.96% of medical patients. Actionable results were found in 341 studies and ETF in 105 studies. The mean radiation was 163.27 and 530.23 mGy CTDIvol for actionable results and ETF, respectively, for all studies. The mean radiation was 53.27 and 106.36 mGy CTDIvol for medical and trauma patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The absorbed dosage of radiation of patients investigated by MDCT is clinically significant. The actionable results and ETF in our study demonstrate considerable opportunity for improvement in the utilisation of this technology by physicians.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study 9: observations on the progressive phase of the disease.

The clinical features of relapses and progression largely define multiple sclerosis phenotypes. A relapsing course is followed by chronic progression in some 80% of cases within 2 decades. The relationship between these phases and long-term outcome remains uncertain. We have analysed these clinical features within a well-studied natural history cohort with mean follow-up of 25 years. For the entire cohort, median times to reach Disability Status Scale (DSS) 6, 8 and 10 were 12.7, 20.6 and 43.9 years, respectively. Among 824 attack-onset patients, the great majority entered a progressive phase with a mean time to progression of 10.4 years. The effects of relapses often cloud the clinical onset of progression. However, there are circumstances where onset of progression is early, relatively discrete and identifiable at DSS of 2 or less. Three subgroups allow for clarity of outcome comparison and they are (i) cases of primary progressive (PP) disease, (ii) attack-onset disease where only a single attack has occurred before onset of progression (SAP) and (iii) secondary progressive (SP) disease where recovery from relapses allows recognition of the earliest clinical stages when progression begins. Here we compare survival curves in these three groups. Among cohorts of SAP (n = 140), PP (n = 219) and SP (n = 146) where progression was stratified by DSS at its onset, there was no difference in time to DSS 6, 8 and 10. These findings demonstrate that the progressive course is independent of relapses either preceding the onset of relapse-free progression or subsequent to it. Among SAP patients, the degree of recovery from the single defining exacerbation had no significant effect on outcome. The site of the original attack was not usually where progression began. The relatively stereotyped nature of the progressive phase seen in all progressive phenotypes suggests regional and/or functional differential susceptibility to a process that appears degenerative in nature. The highly prevalent distal corticospinal tract dysfunction in progressive disease and the pathologically demonstrated selective axonal loss seen in this tract raises the possibility of a dying back central axonopathy, at least in part independent of plaque location or burden. Despite considerable individual variation, the progressive course of disability seen in groups of PP, SAP and SP-DSS2 is similarly stereotyped in quality and pace and may entail mechanisms common to all forms of progressive multiple sclerosis. The possibility that this is the primary process in some cases must be considered.

Focal lingual dystonia, urinary incontinence, and sensory deficits secondary to low voltage electrocution: case report and literature review.

Electrocution injuries are well reported in review articles and cases of high voltage electrocution injury are abundant. However, reports of low voltage electrocution injury are few. A case is presented of low voltage shock from a 120 volt AC source with presentation, acute and chronic course, and a five year follow up. The patient experienced several unusual complications of low voltage electrocution: a persistent right tongue deviation, which initially presents as an isolated hypoglossal nerve palsy, but subsequently manifests as a focal lingual dystonia; total body paresthesia with urinary incontinence; and persistent sensory deficits to the face and tongue.

Toluene induced hypokalaemia: case report and literature review.

Generalised weakness is a common complaint. A case is presented of toluene induced hypokalaemia in a 22 year old woman who presented with generalised weakness. The effect of toluene and causes of weakness and hypokalaemia in this setting are discussed.

Comparison of perceived pain with different immobilization techniques.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the locations and severities of pain generated by a hard wooden spine board vs a soft vacuum mattress splint on immobilized volunteers. METHODS: This was a prospective randomized crossover study conducted in an emergency medical services (EMS) classroom within a university teaching hospital. Participants were 18 healthy volunteers with no history of acute or chronic back pain, pregnancy, or recent analgesic use. The subjects were placed in one of three immobilization boards (hard spine board and two different vacuum splint models, identified as red and blue) for 60 minutes. At 0, 30, and 60 minutes the subjects rated their pain at multiple locations on their body using a visual analog scale (VAS). After a two-day washout period, this procedure was repeated on a different board and later a third board until all the subjects had been tested on all three boards. RESULTS: Although many pressure point locations were studied, only three had results that appeared statistically significant: the occiput, lower back, and sacrum. The hard spine board had higher mean pain scores as well as a higher percentage of subjects who reported any pain when compared with the two vacuum mattress splints. Mean scores for the 30- and 60-minute times were: occiput 2.06 and 2.78 for the hard board compared with 0.78 and 0.56 for red and 0.44 and 0.67 for blue; lower back 1.39 and 1.44 for the hard board compared with 0.28 and 1.11 for red and 0.06 and 0.17 for blue; and sacrum 1.56 and 2.06 for the hard board compared with 0.33 and 0.39 for red and 0.89 and 1.06 for blue. CONCLUSION: The hard-board method of spinal immobilization generates higher self-reported pain scale scores than the two vacuum mattresses.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study: 8: familial multiple sclerosis.

We have examined the demographics and long-term outcome of 1044 patients with sporadic and familial multiple sclerosis in a population-based cohort from London, Ontario. The mean follow-up was 25 years in duration, and by this time most patients had reached the unambiguous endpoint scores of the Kurtzke disability status scale (DSS), DSS 6, 8 or 10. An affected family member was identified in 19.8% of the total population, and this subgroup was further divided arbitrarily into the following three groups by the type and number of relatives affected: (i) first degree only; (ii) first degree plus others; (iii) second or third degree. The outcome in these groups was compared with that for those patients who, at a mean 25 year follow-up, had no relatives known to be affected. Familial cases closely resembled those remaining sporadic in both demographics and outcome, although onset in the most heavily loaded families was earlier and male/female ratio was greater. The times to DSS 6, 8 and 10 did not differ significantly when sporadic, familial and familial subgroups were compared. These results provide no clinical support for viewing familial multiple sclerosis as distinct from the sporadic form. The observed recurrence rate for siblings in a strictly defined epidemiological sample was 3.5%, much as projected. These results validate the recurrence risks which have previously been derived from age-corrected data for these first-degree relatives.

Serum osteocalcin and procollagen as markers for the risk of osteoporotic fracture in corticosteroid-treated asthmatic adults.

BACKGROUND: Dual energy x-ray absorptiometry provides the definitive measure of osteoporotic fracture risk. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether metabolic measures of bone formation and/or common features of clinical hypercortisonism provide a useful guide in selecting corticosteroid-treated asthmatic patients for referral for bone densitometry. METHODS: We measured bone density and 8 AM serum osteocalcin, procollagen, and cortisol levels in 52 asthmatic adults aged 60.7 +/- 12.6 years (mean +/- SD). Years of steroid exposure for these patients was 11.8 +/- 10.7 (prednisone) and 11.78 +/- 4.98 (inhaled steroid). Using stepwise logistic regression, we assessed the capacity of the osteocalcin and procollagen levels, with or without the cortisol level, age, clinical features of hypercortisonism, and different lifetime exposures to inhaled and oral steroids for distinguishing between patients with greater or lesser risk of fracture. RESULTS: Osteoporosis, defined as a bone density T score below -2.5, affected 26% of the group at the spine and 63% at the hip. At the spine, greater risk was associated only with lower cortisol levels (P =.003). Diagnostic accuracy was 71%, the false-positive rate was 26%, and the false-negative rate was 31%. At the hip, greater risk was associated with lower cortisol levels (P =.002), longer prednisone exposure, (P =.003), lower current doses of prednisone (P =.01) and inhaled steroid (P =.02), and older age (P =.01). Diagnostic accuracy was 83%, the false-positive rate was 13%, and the false-negative rate was 21%. CONCLUSIONS: Neither osteocalcin nor procollagen nor any of the clinical criteria analyzed proved sufficiently accurate to be reliable as indicators of the risk of fracture in these elderly, corticosteroid-treated asthmatic adults. They are therefore not useful for selecting such patients for diagnostic densitometry.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study. 7. Progressive-relapsing and relapsing-progressive multiple sclerosis: a re-evaluation.

Classifications of multiple sclerosis subtypes have been largely based on clinical phenomenology. Nevertheless, definitions of relapse, remission and progression have been imprecise. Recently an international consensus group, as part of a reclassification of disease subtypes, recommended dropping the term 'relapsing-progressive' (RP) and retaining the term 'progressive-relapsing' (PR) multiple sclerosis. The term 'RP' multiple sclerosis had been applied when the early course combined both relapses and progression and was believed to identify some patients with a worse than average outcome. The PR group consisted of patients with primary progressive disease who later in their course developed relapses. Since the terminology has been largely arbitrary, we have evaluated the validity of the terms 'RP' and 'PR' multiple sclerosis in the context of long-term outcome within a large population-based cohort of progressive multiple sclerosis patients seen at the London Multiple Sclerosis Clinic (Canada) between 1972 and 1984. Mean follow-up of the entire cohort was 25 years. Designation of RP multiple sclerosis did identify a more rapidly progressive subgroup. To realign these natural history data with consensus recommendations, these patients were reassigned to secondary progressive (SP) or to primary progressive (PP) multiple sclerosis, with progression defined as at least 1 year of progressive deterioration. PP multiple sclerosis patients with relapses after a year were designated as having PR multiple sclerosis. Relapses in primary progressive multiple sclerosis occurred in 27.8% of patients at some point even two to three decades after onset. In general these relapses were mild and remitting, but served to blur the distinction between progressive and relapsing-remitting disease. The long-term outcomes of time to Kurtzke disability scores (DSS) of 3, 6, 8 and 10 were compared among the progressive subtypes. Times to these disability end-points and to death were not different between PR and PP multiple sclerosis. Survival curves for progressive patients have been amended to incorporate the reassignment of PR multiple sclerosis patients into the PP group and the RP multiple sclerosis patients into the PP and SP subgroups. The time to reach DDS 3, 6, 8 and 10 for a population-based cohort of primary and secondary progressive patients resulting from the elimination of the categories of RP multiple sclerosis and PR multiple sclerosis has been established. These results provide justification for retaining only PP and SP multiple sclerosis as the subgroups of progressive disease.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study. 5. The clinical features and natural history of primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

We report a natural history study of 216 patients with primary progressive (PP)- multiple sclerosis defined by at least 1 year of exacerbation-free progression at onset. This represents 19.8% of a largely population-based patient cohort having a mean longitudinal follow-up of 23 years. This subgroup of PP-multiple sclerosis patients had a mean age of onset of 38.5 years, with females predominating by a ratio of 1.3:1.0. The rate of deterioration from disease onset was substantially more rapid than for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, with a median time to disability status score (DSS) 6 and DSS 8 of 8 and 18 years, respectively. Forty-nine percent of patients were followed through to death. Examination of the early disease course revealed two groups with adverse prognostic profiles. Firstly, a shorter time to reach DSS 3 from onset of PP-multiple sclerosis significantly adversely influenced time to DSS 8. Second, involvement of three or more neurological systems at onset resulted in a median time to DSS 10 of 13.5 years in contrast to PP-multiple sclerosis patients with one system involved at onset where median time to death from multiple sclerosis was 33.2 years. However, age, gender and type of neurological system involved at onset appeared to have little influence on prognosis. Life expectancy, cause of mortality and familial history profile were similar in PP-multiple sclerosis and non-PP-multiple sclerosis (all other multiple sclerosis patients from the total population). From clinical onset, rate of progression was faster in the PP-multiple sclerosis group than in the secondary progressive (SP)-multiple sclerosis group. When the rates of progression from onset of the progressive phase to DSS 6, 8 and 10 were compared, SP-multiple sclerosis had a more rapid progressive phase. A substantial minority (28%) of the PP-multiple sclerosis cohort had a distinct relapse even decades after onset of progressive deterioration. These studies establish natural history outcomes for the subgroup of multiple sclerosis patients with primary progressive disease.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study. 6. Applications to planning and interpretation of clinical therapeutic trials in primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

The natural history of primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PP-multiple sclerosis) recently has been defined in a geographically based multiple sclerosis population. For a series of prognostically defined hypothetical entry criteria based upon current trends in presentation to the London Multiple Sclerosis Clinic, we determined the number of patients who would have been trial eligible. Using 23 year mean longitudinal natural history data, we identified the observed rate of deterioration for frequently used trial endpoints. Hypothetical entry criteria were based on the practical considerations which would attend the execution of clinical trials in progressive multiple sclerosis. We then developed a series of sample size tables giving the number of patients with PP-multiple sclerosis and the length of observation that would be required to detect a significant result (P = 0.05) for a 25, 50 and 75% decrease in the median time to progression with 80 or 90% power, with treatment efficacy based upon the ability to slow progression on the disability status score. It is expected that the considerations outlined here will prove useful for both trial design and interpretation of trials in PP-multiple sclerosis which will require multi-centre collaborative efforts.

Calculation vs calibration curve for INR determination. Results of an interlaboratory proficiency scheme.

We surveyed 271 laboratories participating in a quality assessment program to ascertain whether the use of a calibration curve for determining the international normalized ratio (INR) would improve interlaboratory accuracy and precision. Lyophilized warfarinized samples with INR values assigned through manual calibration against internationally assigned rabbit reference thromboplasts were assayed for prothrombin time. Calibration analysis on the results was performed by linear regression. In all but 1 sample, the mean INR value computed by the calibration method was closer to the "true" value than the mean for the conventional calculation method using the International Sensitivity Index (ISI); the ISI calculation consistently overestimated the true value. Interlaboratory variation decreased using the calibration method. Variation from reagent to reagent was greater than from instrument to instrument, but was reduced by the calibration method. The specificity of the ISI for instrument type did not seem to alter the findings. Use of in-house calibrators to verify the ISI improved precision but not necessarily accuracy. The formation of a stable calibration line is consistent over time, but further studies are required to confirm whether such calibration improves the accuracy and precision of INR determination in practice.

Comparison of the antiasthmatic, oropharyngeal, and systemic glucocorticoid effects of budesonide administered through a pressurized aerosol plus spacer or the Turbuhaler dry powder inhaler.

To determine therapeutically and systemically equivalent dosages of budesonide inhaled through the Turbuhaler dry powder inhalation device (Astra Pharma Production AB, Södertälje, Sweden) or pressurized metered-dose inhaler (pMDI) plus Nebuhaler spacer (Astra Pharma Production AB), we compared these devices in a randomized, open, parallel-group trial. Adults with moderate to severe asthma inhaled budesonide (0.4, 0.8, 1.6, and 2.4 mg/day), for 2 weeks at each dose level, through the Turbuhaler (n = 30) or pMDI + Nebuhaler (n = 28). Dose-dependent effects were demonstrated on asthma symptoms (p = 0.0001), daily peak expiratory flow (p = 0.02), blood eosinophils (p = 0.0001), urinary cortisol output per day (p = 0.0001), serum cortisol (p = 0.006), serum osteocalcin (p = 0.0001), and the oropharyngeal Candida colony count (p = 0.0007. analysis of covariance). The ratio of the responses to the two inhalation devices approximated 1.0 for each index measured; that is, no significant between-device difference was found (p > or = 0.29). However, the 95% confidence limits for the ratio of their respective systemic effects on osteocalcin production were 0.83 to 1.48. Thus in adults who use inhalation devices efficiently and have optimally controlled asthma, conversions from the pMDI + Nebuhaler to the Turbuhaler may reasonably be made at milligram equivalent doses of budesonide, then down-titrated to minimize possible systemic effects. Because earlier studies have shown that the Turbuhaler can double intrapulmonary drug delivery in comparison with a pMDI without a spacer, a 50% dose reduction may be indicated when converting from a pMDI to the Turbuhaler.

A methodological assessment of diurnal variability of peak flow as a basis for comparing different inhaled steroid formulations.

BACKGROUND: A "survival" model offers certain ethical and practical advantages over alternative experimental designs if used to compare antiasthmatic inhaled steroid formulations. The model requires an objective daily measure of therapeutic effect (e.g., peak expiratory flow rate, which may be expressed as the lower of two daily measurements (LPF) or as diurnal variability (DVPF). The relative efficiency of these two measures is unknown. OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to determine the relative efficiency of LPF and DVPF. METHODS: We analyzed data from a placebo-controlled comparison of an active inhaled formulation of budesonide versus an inactive oral formulation. The primary outcome measure in this design is the number of days from the time the test treatments start until a statistically significant deterioration occurs from an optimal asthma control value established at baseline. RESULTS: DVPF proved less sensitive than LPF; that is, fewer patients relapsed during the 8-week trial period: 32 versus 41, respectively. Also, the median interval until relapse was longer: 24 versus 9 days. With LPF, inhaled budesonide proved more effective than placebo or oral budesonide (p = 0.03), whereas DVPF failed to discriminate among the test treatments (p = 0.38). LPF correlated with all three symptom indices (p > or = 0.003) and two of three spirometric indices measured concomitantly (p < or = 0.04). DVPF did not correlate with any index (p > or = 0.10). CONCLUSION: In this experimental model, LPF proved more sensitive and valid than DVPF as an indicator of differences in antiasthmatic potency between two inhaled steroid formulations.

Meta-analysis of the placebo-treated groups in clinical trials of progressive MS.

The behavior of the control groups can substantially affect the power and outcome of a clinical trial. We report a meta-analysis of the control groups of four large, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials of immuno-suppressive treatment of progressive MS to address the sensitivity of five hypothetical definitions of treatment failure (TF). The rate of TF in the aggregate control groups (n = 427) was 31% when a confirmed increase of 1.0 expanded disability status scale (EDSS) point was required at the end of the trial; it was 51% when confirmation was not required and TF was allowed at the first point where the criteria for TF were met. The rate of confirmed TF was 45% when the TF criteria were indexed to baseline EDSS, accounting for the observed differences in staying times at different EDSS levels. We developed models predicting TF in progressive MS. In addition to baseline EDSS, the pyramidal functional score and, for one definition, brainstem functional score were associated with probability of TF.

Long-term and short-term outcome of multiple sclerosis: a 3-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: The anticipated rate of short-term worsening of disability scores is the basis of power estimations in clinical trials of progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). While the clinician is most concerned in modifying the long-term outcome (eg, time to reach the Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS]6), the end points studied in clinical trials are those describing short-term outcome (eg, worsening of EDSS scores over 1 to 3 years). However, short-term outcome of MS may not be correlated with long-term outcome. OBJECTIVES: To validate previously published models predicting time to EDSS 6. To establish predictors of short-term outcome of MS. SETTING: The Ottawa, Ontario, Regional Multiple Sclerosis Clinic. PATIENTS: Two hundred fifty-nine patients were followed up prospectively by a single neurologist. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Actuarial analysis of time to reach EDSS 6 and change in EDSS scores over a follow-up period of 1 to 3 years. RESULTS: The long-term outcome in the Ottawa population was more favorable than published data from London, Ontario. Predictions of time to EDSS 6 were not strongly correlated with the degree of short-term worsening over the follow-up period. Parameters associated with a higher probability of short-term worsening were proximity of the baseline EDSS score to 4.5 and duration of MS less than 20 years. CONCLUSION: Baseline EDSS and duration of MS must be considered in the design of clinical trials of progressive MS.

Bone mineral density and the risk of fracture in patients receiving long-term inhaled steroid therapy for asthma.

To determine whether high-dose or prolonged inhaled steroid therapy for asthma increases a patient's risk of osteoporosis and fracture, we measured bone density in 26 men and 43 women (41 postmenopausal, all of whom had received supplemental estrogen therapy) after treatment with an inhaled steroid for 10.1 +/- 5.5 years and oral prednisone for 10.7 +/- 9.7 years (mean +/- SD). Most had stopped receiving prednisone since commencing the inhaled steroid therapy. We found that bone densities (adjusted for age and sex to yield a z score) were lower in association with higher daily doses of inhaled steroid (p = 0.013 ANCOVA) and with the duration of past prednisone therapy (p = 0.032). Larger cumulative inhaled steroid doses were associated with higher bone densities (p = 0.002) and a reduction in the numbers of patients at risk of fracture. Bone density also increased with the amount of supplemental estrogen therapy (p = 0.058) and, at equivalent levels of inhaled and oral steroid use, women showed higher bone density z scores than did men. Women with a lifetime dose of inhaled steroid greater than 3 gm had normal bone density regardless of the amount of past or current prednisone use or the current dose of inhaled steroid. These data indicate that the daily dose, but not the duration, of inhaled steroid therapy may adversely affect bone density, and that estrogen therapy may offset this bone-depleting effect in postmenopausal women.

Association of ocular cataracts with inhaled and oral steroid therapy during long-term treatment of asthma.

BACKGROUND: Posterior subcapsular cataracts (PSCs) have been reported to occur in some asthmatic patients treated with inhaled steroids. METHODS: We studied the associations between the occurrence of PSCs and inhaled and oral steroid therapy in 48 adults in a cross-sectional survey by slit lamp. Accurate records of the patients' long-term usage of these drugs were available: 9.2 +/- 5.2 years for inhaled steroid and 9.1 +/- 9.3 years for prednisone (mean +/- SD). Their current inhaled steroid dosage averaged 1.46 +/- 0.85 mg/day (range, 0 to 3.2 mg/day). RESULTS: Twenty-seven percent of the group had PSCs. The occurrence of PSCs correlated with the current daily dose and duration of prednisone use (p = 0.002 and p = 0.01, respectively), but not with the dose or duration of inhaled steroid treatment. As judged by multiple logistic regression analysis, neither the particular inhaled steroid drug used, nor its daily dose or cumulative dose, nor the additional nonsteroidal risk factors for PSCs also present in some of these patients contributed significantly to their risk of developing PSCs. CONCLUSIONS: The findings do not exclude the possibility that inhaled steroid therapy might lead to PSCs if a person has an exceptionally high inherent susceptibility. However, in the asthmatic population at large, the risk appears negligible, even if high doses of inhaled steroid are administered.

Effects of dose and dosing schedule of inhaled budesonide on bone turnover.

To assess whether the use of larger than usual doses of inhaled steroid to treat severe asthma may adversely affect bone turnover and whether such an effect may be mitigated by altering the dose schedule, we investigated the effects of budesonide (BUD) on serum osteocalcin and the urinary output of hydroxyproline and calcium. Healthy adults were administered 1.2 or 2.4 mg of BUD per day (N = 40) or placebo (N = 8) in a crossover, double-blind comparison of morning versus diurnal dosing schedules for 1 month each. Both BUD doses reduced the 24-hour urinary free-cortisol output (p less than 0.001) and serum osteocalcin (p less than 0.001). The larger dose reduced the morning serum cortisol levels (p = 0.002). Neither dose increased the 8 AM urinary calcium or hydroxyproline output. Osteocalcin and plasma cortisol levels were higher on morning than on diurnal dosing (p = 0.01). The 24-hour urinary free-cortisol output was the same with either schedule (p = 0.96). Additional study is required to assess the clinical importance of the inhibitory effect of BUD on bone formation, as evidenced by the reduction in osteocalcin levels. Of concern is the possibility of serious bone complications resulting from the long-term use of inhaled steroid, particularly in growing children or patients in whom other risk factors for osteoporosis are present. The clinical advantage, if any, of morning dosing remains questionable.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study. 3. Multivariate analysis of predictive factors and models of outcome.

A multivariate hierarchical analysis was used to assess the significance of several demographic and clinical factors in multiple sclerosis patients. We used the time to reach level 6 on the disability status scale (DSS) of Kurtzke as endpoint. Several factors at presentation were significantly associated with an adverse outcome including older age at onset, male sex, cerebellar involvement or insidious onset of a motor deficit as first symptom. Factors ascertained later which were associated significantly with a worse outcome, even after controlling for those previously mentioned, included persisting deficits in brainstem, cerebellar or cerebral systems, a higher frequency of attacks in the first 2 yrs after onset of disease, a short first interattack interval and higher DSS at 2 yrs and 5 yrs from onset. An analysis similar to multiple regression was used to generate predictive models which permit the calculation of the median time to DSS 6 for patients with a given set of covariates. The goodness of fit of these models to the data and their predictive accuracy are discussed.