Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization.

Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.

Heinrich events triggered by ocean forcing and modulated by isostatic adjustment.

During the last glacial period, the Laurentide Ice Sheet sporadically discharged huge numbers of icebergs through the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic Ocean, leaving behind distinct layers of ice-rafted debris in the ocean sediments. Perplexingly, these massive discharge events-Heinrich events-occurred during the cold portion of millennial-scale climate oscillations called Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. This is in contrast to the expectation that ice sheets expand in colder climates and shrink in warmer climates. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that the magnitude and timing of Heinrich events can be explained by the same processes that drive the retreat of modern marine-terminating glaciers. In our model, subsurface ocean warming associated with variations in the overturning circulation increases underwater melt along the calving face, triggering rapid margin retreat and increased iceberg discharge. On millennial timescales, isostatic adjustment causes the bed to uplift, isolating the terminus from subsurface warming and allowing the ice sheet to advance again until, at its most advanced position, it is poised for another Heinrich event. This mechanism not only explains the timing and magnitude of observed Heinrich events, but also suggests that ice sheets in contact with warming oceans may be vulnerable to catastrophic collapse even with little atmospheric warming.

Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves.

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates.