Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.

As the Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) started to spread rapidly in the state of Ohio, the Ecology, Epidemiology and Population Health (EEPH) program within the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) at The Ohio State University (OSU) took the initiative to offer epidemic modeling and decision analytics support to the Ohio Department of Health (ODH). This paper describes the methodology used by the OSU/IDI response modeling team to predict statewide cases of new infections as well as potential hospital burden in the state. The methodology has two components: (1) A Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA)-based statistical method to perform parameter inference, statewide prediction and uncertainty quantification. (2) A geographic component that down-projects statewide predicted counts to potential hospital burden across the state. We demonstrate the overall methodology with publicly available data. A Python implementation of the methodology is also made publicly available. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Projecting COVID-19 Cases and Subsequent Hospital Burden in Ohio.

As the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) disease started to spread rapidly in the state of Ohio, the Ecology, Epidemiology and Population Health (EEPH) program within the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) at the Ohio State University (OSU) took the initiative to offer epidemic modeling and decision analytics support to the Ohio Department of Health (ODH). This paper describes the methodology used by the OSU/IDI response modeling team to predict statewide cases of new infections as well as potential hospital burden in the state. The methodology has two components: 1) A Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA)-based statistical method to perform parameter inference, statewide prediction and uncertainty quantification. 2) A geographic component that down-projects statewide predicted counts to potential hospital burden across the state. We demonstrate the overall methodology with publicly available data. A Python implementation of the methodology has been made available publicly. Highlights: We present a novel statistical approach called Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) to model an epidemic curve with incomplete data. The DSA approach is advantageous over standard statistical methods primarily because it does not require prior knowledge of the size of the susceptible population, the overall prevalence of the disease, and also the shape of the epidemic curve.The principal motivation behind the study was to obtain predictions of case counts of COVID-19 and the resulting hospital burden in the state of Ohio during the early phase of the pandemic.The proposed methodology was applied to the COVID-19 incidence data in the state of Ohio to support the Ohio Department of Health (ODH) and the Ohio Hospital Association (OHA) with predictions of hospital burden in each of the Hospital Catchment Areas (HCAs) of the state.

Hitting Times of Some Critical Events in RNA Origins of Life.

Can a replicase be found in the vast sequence space by random drift? We partially answer this question through a proof-of-concept study of the times of occurrence (hitting times) of some critical events in the origins of life for low-dimensional RNA sequences using a mathematical model and stochastic simulation studies from Python software. We parameterize fitness and similarity landscapes for polymerases and study a replicating population of sequences (randomly) participating in template-directed polymerization. Under the ansatz of localization where sequence proximity correlates with spatial proximity of sequences, we find that, for a replicating population of sequences, the hitting and establishment of a high-fidelity replicator depends critically on the polymerase fitness and sequence (spatial) similarity landscapes and on sequence dimension. Probability of hitting is dominated by landscape curvature, whereas hitting time is dominated by sequence dimension. Surface chemistries, compartmentalization, and decay increase hitting times. Compartmentalization by vesicles reveals a trade-off between vesicle formation rate and replicative mass, suggesting that compartmentalization is necessary to ensure sufficient concentration of precursors. Metabolism is thought to be necessary to replication by supplying precursors of nucleobase synthesis. We suggest that the dynamics of the search for a high-fidelity replicase evolved mostly during the final period and, upon hitting, would have been followed by genomic adaptation of genes and to compartmentalization and metabolism, effecting degree-of-freedom gains of replication channel control over domain and state to ensure the fidelity and safe operations of the primordial genetic communication system of life.

Author Correction: Hysteresis control of epithelial-mesenchymal transition dynamics conveys a distinct program with enhanced metastatic ability.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of the author Daniel D. Liu, which was incorrectly given as Daniel Liu. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Hysteresis control of epithelial-mesenchymal transition dynamics conveys a distinct program with enhanced metastatic ability.

Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) have been extensively characterized in development and cancer, and its dynamics have been modeled as a non-linear process. However, less is known about how such dynamics may affect its biological impact. Here, we use mathematical modeling and experimental analysis of the TGF-ß-induced EMT to reveal a non-linear hysteretic response of E-cadherin repression tightly controlled by the strength of the miR-200s/ZEBs negative feedback loop. Hysteretic EMT conveys memory state, ensures rapid and robust cellular response and enables EMT to persist long after withdrawal of stimuli. Importantly, while both hysteretic and non-hysteretic EMT confer similar morphological changes and invasive potential of cancer cells, only hysteretic EMT enhances lung metastatic colonization efficiency. Cells that undergo hysteretic EMT differentially express subsets of stem cell and extracellular matrix related genes with significant clinical prognosis value. These findings illustrate distinct biological impact of EMT depending on the dynamics of the transition.

Experimental Design of Formulations Utilizing High Dimensional Model Representation.

Many applications involve formulations or mixtures where large numbers of components are possible to choose from, but a final composition with only a few components is sought. Finding suitable binary or ternary mixtures from all the permissible components often relies on simplex-lattice sampling in traditional design of experiments (DoE), which requires performing a large number of experiments even for just tens of permissible components. The effect rises very rapidly with increasing numbers of components and can readily become impractical. This paper proposes constructing a single model for a mixture containing all permissible components from just a modest number of experiments. Yet the model is capable of satisfactorily predicting the performance for full as well as all possible binary and ternary component mixtures. To achieve this goal, we utilize biased random sampling combined with high dimensional model representation (HDMR) to replace DoE simplex-lattice design. Compared with DoE, the required number of experiments is significantly reduced, especially when the number of permissible components is large. This study is illustrated with a solubility model for solvent mixture screening.

Lasting effects on body weight and mammary gland gene expression in female mice upon early life exposure to n-3 but not n-6 high-fat diets.

Exposure to an imbalance of nutrients prior to conception and during critical developmental periods can have lasting consequences on physiological processes resulting in chronic diseases later in life. Developmental programming has been shown to involve structural and functional changes in important tissues. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether early life diet has a programming effect on the mammary gland. Wild-type mice were exposed from 2 weeks prior to conception to 6 weeks of age to a regular low-fat diet, or to high-fat diets based on either corn oil or flaxseed oil. At 6 weeks of age, all mice were shifted to the regular low-fat diet until termination at 10 weeks of age. Early life exposure to a high-fat diet, either high in n-6 (corn oil) or in n-3 (flaxseed oil) polyunsaturated fatty acids, did not affect birth weight, but resulted in an increased body weight at 10 weeks of age. Transcriptome analyses of the fourth abdominal mammary gland revealed differentially expressed genes between the different treatment groups. Exposure to high-fat diet based on flaxseed oil, but not on corn oil, resulted in regulation of pathways involved in energy metabolism, immune response and inflammation. Our findings suggest that diet during early life indeed has a lasting effect on the mammary gland and significantly influences postnatal body weight gain, metabolic status, and signaling networks in the mammary gland of female offspring.

Gene Selection with Sequential Classification and Regression Tree Algorithm.

BACKGROUND: In the typical setting of gene-selection problems from high-dimensional data, e.g., gene expression data from microarray or next-generation sequencing-based technologies, an enormous volume of high-throughput data is generated, and there is often a need for a simple, computationally-inexpensive, non-parametric screening procedure than can quickly and accurately find a low-dimensional variable subset that preserves biological information from the original very high-dimensional data (dimension p > 40,000). This is in contrast to the very sophisticated variable selection methods that are computationally expensive, need pre-processing routines, and often require calibration of priors. RESULTS: We present a tree-based sequential CART (S-CART) approach to variable selection in the binary classification setting and compare it against the more sophisticated procedures using simulated and real biological data. In simulated data, we analyze S-CART performance versus (i) a random forest (RF), (ii) a fully-parametric Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (SSVS), and (iii) the moderated t-test statistic from the LIMMA package in R. The simulation study is based on a hierarchical Bayesian model, where dataset dimensionality, percentage of significant variables, and substructure via dependency vary. Selection efficacy is measured through false-discovery and missed-discovery rates. In all scenarios, the S-CART method is seen to consistently outperform SSVS and RF in both speed and detection accuracy. We demonstrate the utility of the S-CART technique both on simulated data and in a control-treatment mouse study. We show that the network analysis based on the S-CART-selected gene subset in essence recapitulates the biological findings of the study using only a fraction of the original set of genes considered in the study's analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively simple-minded gene selection algorithms like S-CART may often in practical circumstances be preferred over much more sophisticated ones. The advantage of the "greedy" selection methods utilized by S-CART and the likes is that they scale well with the problem size and require virtually no tuning or training while remaining efficient in extracting the relevant information from microarray-like datasets containing large number of redundant or irrelevant variables. AVAILABILITY: The MATLAB 7.4b code for the S-CART implementation is available for download from https://neyman.mcg.edu/posts/scart.zip.

Integrative database management for mouse development: systems and concepts.

Cells in the developing embryo must integrate complex signals from the genome and environment to make decisions about their behavior or fate. The ability to understand the fundamental biology of the decision-making process, and how these decisions may go awry during abnormal development, requires a systems biology paradigm. Presently, the ability to build models with predictive capability in birth defects research is constrained by an incomplete understanding of the fundamental parameters underlying embryonic susceptibility, sensitivity, and vulnerability. Key developmental milestones must be parameterized in terms of system structure and dynamics, the relevant control methods, and the overall design logic of metabolic and regulatory networks. High-content data from genome-based studies provide some comprehensive coverage of these operational processes but a key research challenge is data integration. Analysis can be facilitated by data management resources and software to reveal the structure and function of bionetwork motifs potentially associated with an altered developmental phenotype. Borrowing from applied mathematics and artificial intelligence, we conceptualize a system that can help address the new challenges posed by the transformation of birth defects research into a data-driven science.