ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: A possible strategy to reduce fatality rates of visceral leishmaniasis is to identify prognostic factors that can be easily assessed and used as an aid to clinical decision-making. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A case-control study was developed in Teresina, Brazil, in which cases were patients who died during treatment (n = 12) and controls (n = 78) comprised a random sample of patients who were alive when treatment was finished. RESULTS: Variables significantly associated with death were severe anemia, fever for more than 60 days, diarrhea and jaundice. The prognostic system had a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 92.5%. CONCLUSION: The prognostic model developed in this study had satisfactory performance and might be useful in developing countries, since it is simple and inexpensive. However, it is still preliminary and needs to be improved and validated using larger and more recent samples.
