ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Calculating the greenhouse gas savings that may be attributed to biofuels is problematic because production systems are inherently complex and methods used to quantify savings are subjective. Differing approaches and interpretations have fuelled a debate about the environmental merit of biofuels, and consequently about the level of policy support that can be justified. This paper estimates and compares emissions from plausible supply chains for lignocellulosic ethanol production, exemplified using data specific to the UK and Sweden. The common elements that give rise to the greatest greenhouse gas emissions are identified and the sensitivity of total emissions to variations in these elements is estimated. The implications of including consequential impacts including indirect land-use change, and the effects of selecting alternative allocation methods on the interpretation of results are discussed. RESULTS: We find that the most important factors affecting supply chain emissions are the emissions embodied in biomass production, the use of electricity in the conversion process and potentially consequential impacts: indirect land-use change and fertiliser replacement. The large quantity of electricity consumed during enzyme manufacture suggests that enzymatic conversion processes may give rise to greater greenhouse gas emissions than the dilute acid conversion process, even though the dilute acid process has a somewhat lower ethanol yield. CONCLUSION: The lignocellulosic ethanol supply chains considered here all lead to greenhouse gas savings relative to gasoline An important caveat to this is that if lignocellulosic ethanol production uses feedstocks that lead to indirect land-use change, or other significant consequential impacts, the benefit may be greatly reduced.Co-locating ethanol, electricity generation and enzyme production in a single facility may improve performance, particularly if this allows the number of energy intensive steps in enzyme production to be reduced, or if other process synergies are available. If biofuels policy in the EU remains contingent on favourable environmental performance then the multi-scale nature of bioenergy supply chains presents a genuine challenge. Lignocellulosic ethanol holds promise for emission reductions, but maximising greenhouse gas savings will not only require efficient supply chain design but also a better understanding of the spatial and temporal factors which affect overall performance.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The production of fuel-grade ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass resources has the potential to increase biofuel production capacity whilst minimising the negative environmental impacts. These benefits will only be realised if lignocellulosic ethanol production can compete on price with conventional fossil fuels and if it can be produced commercially at scale. This paper focuses on lignocellulosic ethanol production in Europe. The hypothesis is that the eventual cost of production will be determined not only by the performance of the conversion process but by the performance of the entire supply-chain from feedstock production to consumption. To test this, a model for supply-chain cost comparison is developed, the components of representative ethanol supply-chains are described, the factors that are most important in determining the cost and profitability of ethanol production are identified, and a detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted. RESULTS: The most important cost determinants are the cost of feedstocks, primarily determined by location and existing markets, and the value obtained for ethanol, primarily determined by the oil price and policy incentives. Both of these factors are highly uncertain. The best performing chains (ethanol produced from softwood and sold as a low percentage blend with gasoline) could ultimately be cost competitive with gasoline without requiring subsidy, but production from straw would generally be less competitive. CONCLUSION: Supply-chain design will play a critical role in determining commercial viability. The importance of feedstock supply highlights the need for location-specific assessments of feedstock availability and price. Similarly, the role of subsidies and policy incentives in creating and sustaining the ethanol market highlights the importance of political engagement and the need to include political risks in investment appraisal. For the supply-chains described here, and with the cost and market parameters selected, selling ethanol as a low percentage blend with gasoline will maximise ethanol revenues and minimise the need for subsidies. It follows, therefore, that the market for low percentage blends should be saturated before markets for high percentage blends.
ABSTRACT
This paper provides an overview of some of the key technological and market developments for leading renewable energy technologies--wind, wave and tidal, photovoltaics (PV) and biomass energy. Market growth, innovation and policy are closely interrelated in the development of renewables and the key issues in each area are explored for each of the main types of renewable energy technology. This enables the prospects for future development and cost reduction to be considered in detail. Key issues for policy are outlined.