Shaping dental contract reform: a clinical and cost-effective analysis of incentive-driven commissioning for improved oral health in primary dental care.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a new blended dental contract incentivising improved oral health compared with a traditional dental contract based on units of dental activity (UDAs). DESIGN: Non-randomised controlled study. SETTING: Six UK primary care dental practices, three working under a new blended dental contract; three matched practices under a traditional contract. PARTICIPANTS: 550 new adult patients. INTERVENTIONS: A new blended/incentive-driven primary care dentistry contract and service delivery model versus the traditional contract based on UDAs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was as follows: percentage of sites with gingival bleeding on probing. Secondary outcomes were as follows: extracted and filled teeth (%), caries (International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS)), oral health-related quality of life (Oral Health Impact Profile-14 (OHIP-14)). Incremental cost-effective ratios used OHIP-14 and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) derived from the EQ-5D-3L. RESULTS: At 24 months, 291/550 (53%) patients returned for final assessment; those lost to follow-up attended 6.46 appointments on average (SD 4.80). The primary outcome favoured patients in the blended contract group. Extractions and fillings were more frequent in this group. Blended contracts were financially attractive for the dental provider but carried a higher cost for the service commissioner. Differences in generic health-related quality of life were negligible. Positive changes over time in oral health-related quality of life in both groups were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first UK study to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a blended contract in primary care dentistry. Although the primary outcome favoured the blended contract, the results are limited because 47% patients did not attend at 24 months. This is consistent with 39% of adults not being regular attenders and 27% only visiting their dentist when they have a problem. Promotion of appropriate attendance, especially among those with high need, necessitates being factored into recruitment strategies of future studies.

Variability in clinicians' opinions regarding fitness to drive in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS).

We evaluated clinicians' current practice for giving advice to patients with obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome. Clinicians were invited to complete a web-based survey and indicate the advice they would give to patients in a number of scenarios about driving; they were also asked what they considered to be residual drowsiness and adequate compliance following CPAP treatment. In the least contentious scenario, 94% of clinicians would allow driving; in the most contentious a patient had a 50% chance of being allowed to drive. Following treatment with CPAP, clinicians' interpretation of what constituted residual drowsiness was inconsistent. In each vignette the same clinician was more likely to say 'yes' to 'excessive' than to 'irresistible' (71%±12% vs 42%±10%, p=0.0045). There was also a lack of consensus regarding 'adequate CPAP compliance'; 'yes' responses ranged from 13% to 64%. There is a need for clearer guidance; a recent update to the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency guidance, and a statement from the British Thoracic Society, making it clear that sleepiness while driving is the key issue, may help.

Cardiovascular risk in patients with small and medium abdominal aortic aneurysms, and no history of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of death in people with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). There is little evidence that screening for AAA reduces all-cause or cardiovascular mortality. The aim of the study was to assess whether subjects with a small or medium AAA (3·0-5·4 cm), without previous history of clinical CVD, had raised levels of CVD biomarkers or increased total mortality. METHODS: This prospective study included subjects with a small or medium AAA and controls, all without a history of clinical CVD. CVD biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, hs-CRP; heart-type fatty acid-binding protein, H-FABP) were measured, and survival was recorded. RESULTS: Of a total of 815 people, 476 with an AAA and 339 controls, a cohort of 86 with small or medium AAA (3-5·4 cm) and 158 controls, all with no clinical history of CVD, were identified. The groups were matched for age and sex. The AAA group had higher median (i.q.r.) levels of hs-CRP (2·8 (1·2-6·0) versus 1·3 (0·5-3·5) mg/l; P < 0·001) and H-FABP (4·6 (3·5-6·0) versus 4·0 (3·3-5·1) µg/l; P = 0·011) than controls. Smoking was more common in the AAA group; however, hs-CRP and H-FABP levels were not related to smoking. Mean survival was lower in the AAA group: 6·3 (95 per cent confidence interval (c·i.) 5·6 to 6·9) years versus 8·0 (7·6 to 8·1) years in controls (P < 0·001). Adjusted mortality was higher in the AAA group (hazard ratio 3·41, 95 per cent c·i. 2·11 to 9·19; P < 0·001). CONCLUSION: People with small or medium AAA and no clinical symptoms of CVD have higher levels of hs-CRP and H-FABP, and higher mortality compared with controls. They should continue to receive secondary prevention against CVD.

Prospective development and validation of a model to predict heart failure hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVE: Acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) is a major cause of hospitalisation and imparts a substantial burden on patients and healthcare systems. Tools to define risk of AHFS hospitalisation are lacking. METHODS: A prospective cohort study (n=628) of patients with stable chronic heart failure (CHF) secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction was used to derive an AHFS prediction model which was then assessed in a prospectively recruited validation cohort (n=462). RESULTS: Within the derivation cohort, 44 (7%) patients were hospitalised as a result of AHFS during 1 year of follow-up. Predictors of AHFS hospitalisation included furosemide equivalent dose, the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, AHFS hospitalisation within the previous year and pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph, all assessed at baseline. A multivariable model containing these four variables exhibited good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.38) and discrimination (C-statistic 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.84). Using a 2.5% risk cut-off for predicted AHFS, the model defined 38.5% of patients as low risk, with negative predictive value of 99.1%; this low risk cohort exhibited <1% excess all-cause mortality per annum when compared with contemporaneous actuarial data. Within the validation cohort, an identically applied model derived comparable performance parameters (C-statistic 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87), Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.15, negative predictive value 100%). CONCLUSIONS: A prospectively derived and validated model using simply obtained clinical data can identify patients with CHF at low risk of hospitalisation due to AHFS in the year following assessment. This may guide the design of future strategies allocating resources to the management of CHF.

Age-dependent inequalities in improvements in mortality occur early after acute myocardial infarction in 478,242 patients in the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) registry.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have declined, but there is uncertainty regarding the extent of improvements in early mortality in the elderly. METHODS: Mixed-effects regression analysis of 30-day mortality using data from 478,242 patients with AMI at 215 hospitals in England and Wales stratified by STEMI/NSTEMI, sex, and age group. A hospital opportunity-based composite score (OBCS) for aspirin, ACE-inhibitor, statin, ß blocker, and referral for cardiac rehabilitation was used as measure of quality of hospital care. RESULTS: 30-day mortality rates (95% CI) fell from 10.7% (10.6 to 10.9%) in 2004/5 to 8.4% (8.3 to 8.6%) in 2008/9. The median (IQR) hospital OBCSs increased over time, 2004/5: 87.3 (7.2), 2006/7: 88.9 (6.3), 2008/9: 90.3 (6.1), P<0.001, and were similar between age groups (18 to <65 years, 65 to 79 years, and ≥ 80 years) for STEMI: 89.4 (6.5) vs. 89.4 (6.6), vs. 89.2 (6.5) and NSTEMI: 88.6 (7.3) vs. 88.8 (7.0) vs. 88.9 (7.0), respectively For males, all age groups except patients <65 years demonstrated a significant decrease in adjusted mortality. For females, only patients ≥ 80 years demonstrated a significant reduction in adjusted mortality. A 1% increase in hospital OBCS was associated with a 1% decrease in 30-day mortality (95% CI: 0.99 to 0.99, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: In England and Wales, for patients with AMI there are age and sex-dependent differences in improvements in 30-day mortality. Whereas young males with AMI have reached an acceptable performance plateau, all other groups are either improving or, more importantly, are yet to demonstrate this.

Resolving inequalities in care? Reduced mortality in the elderly after acute coronary syndromes. The Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project 2003-2010.

AIMS: To examine age-dependent in-hospital mortality for hospitalization with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in England and Wales. METHODS AND RESULTS: Mixed-effects regression analysis using data from 616 011 ACS events at 255 hospitals as recorded in the Myocardial Ischemia National Audit Project (MINAP) 2003-2010; 102 415 (16.7%) patients were aged <55 years and 72 721 (11.9%) ≥85 years. Patients ≥85 years with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) were less likely to receive emergency reperfusion therapy than those <55 years (RR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.25-0.28). Older patients had greater lengths of stay (P< 0.001) and higher in-hospital mortality (P< 0.001). For STEMI and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), there were reductions in in-hospital mortality from 2003 to 2010 across all age groups including the very elderly. For STEMI ≥ 85 years, in-hospital mortality reduced from 30.1% in 2003 to 19.4% in 2010 (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.38-0.75, P< 0.001), and for NSTEMI ≥ 85 years, from 31.5% in 2003 to 20.4% in 2010 (RR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.42-0.73, P< 0.001). Findings were upheld after multi-level adjustment (base = 2003): male STEMI 2010 OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.48-0.75; female STEMI 2010 OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.42-0.71; male NSTEMI OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.42-0.60; female NSTEMI OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.40-0.59. CONCLUSION: For patients hospitalized with ACS in England and Wales, there have been substantial reductions in in-hospital mortality rates from 2003 to 2010 across all age groups. The temporal improvements in mortality were similar for sex and type of acute myocardial infarction. Age-dependent inequalities in the management of ACS were apparent.