Seroprevalence as an Indicator of Undercounting of COVID-19 Cases in a Large Well-Described Cohort.

Introduction: Reported confirmed cases represent a small portion of overall true cases for many infectious diseases. The undercounting of true cases can be considerable when a significant portion of infected individuals are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, as is the case with COVID-19. Seroprevalence studies are an efficient way to assess the extent to which true cases are undercounted during a large-scale outbreak and can inform efforts to improve case identification and reporting. Methods: A longitudinal seroprevalence study of active duty U.S. military members was conducted from May 2020 through June 2021. A random selection of service member serum samples submitted to the Department of Defense Serum Repository was analyzed for the presence of antibodies reactive to SARS-CoV-2. The monthly seroprevalence rates were compared with those of cumulative confirmed cases reported during the study period. Results: Seroprevalence was 2.3% in May 2020 and increased to 74.0% by June 2021. The estimated true case count based on seroprevalence was 9.3 times greater than monthly reported cases at the beginning of the study period and fell to 1.7 by the end of the study. Conclusions: In our sample, confirmed case counts significantly underestimated true cases of COVID-19. The increased availability of testing over the study period and enhanced efforts to detect asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic cases likely contributed to the fall in the seroprevalence to reported case ratio.

Antimicrobial resistance of enteric pathogens in the Military Health System, 2009 - 2019.

BACKGROUND: Acute diarrhea (AD) can have significant impacts on military troop readiness. Medical providers must understand current trends of enteropathogen antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in service members (SMs) to inform proper, timely treatment options. However, little is known of enteric pathogen profiles across the Military Health System (MHS). The primary objectives of this study were to identify gaps in enteric pathogen surveillance within the MHS, describe the epidemiology of AMR in enteric pathogens, and identify trends across the MHS both within the Continental United States (CONUS) and outside of the Continental United States (OCONUS). METHODS: Health Level 7 (HL7)-formatted laboratory data were queried for all specimens where Salmonella, Shigella, and Campylobacter species, as well as Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) (STEC) were isolated and certified between 1 January 2009 - 31 December 2019. Antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) results were queried and summarized where available. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each organism by specimen source, year, and susceptibility testing availability. RESULTS: Among a total of 13,852 enteric bacterial isolates, 11,877 (86%) were submitted from CONUS locations. Out of 1479 Shigella spp. and 6755 Salmonella spp. isolates, 1221 (83%) and 5019 (74%), respectively, reported any susceptibility results through the MHS. Overall, only 15% of STEC and 4% of Campylobacter spp. specimens had AST results available. Comparing AST reporting at CONUS versus OCONUS locations, AST was reported for 1175 (83%) and 46 (78%) of Shigella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively, and for 4591 (76%) and 428 (63%) of Salmonella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed inconsistent enteropathogen AST conducted across the MHS, with differing trends between CONUS and OCONUS locations. Additional work is needed to assess pathogen-specific gaps in testing and reporting to develop optimal surveillance that supports the health of the force.

Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance within the Military Health System during 1 March-31 December 2020.

This report describes SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance conducted by the Department of Defense (DoD) Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Branch and the Next-Generation Sequencing and Bioinformatics Consortium (NGSBC) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Samples and sequence data were from SARS-CoV-2 infections occurring among Military Health System (MHS) beneficiaries from 1 March to 31 December 2020. There were 1,366 MHS samples sequenced from 10 countries, 36 U.S states or territories, and 5 Geographic Combatant Commands, representing approximately 2% of DoD cases in 2020. Genomes from these samples were compared with other public sequences; observed trends were similar to those of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national surveillance in the U.S. with B.1, B.1.2, and other sub-lineages comprising the dominant variants of SARS-CoV-2. Sequence data were used to monitor transmission dynamics on U.S. Navy ships and at military training centers and installations. As new variants emerge, DoD medical and public health practitioners should maximize the use of genomic surveillance resources within DoD to inform force health protection measures.

Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action.

INTRODUCTION: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. METHODS: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. RESULTS: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health.

Tick-borne encephalitis surveillance in U.S. military service members and beneficiaries, 2006-2018.

The risk of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) among U.S. military service members and beneficiaries residing in or traveling to Europe has not been assessed since the 1990s. The primary objective of this study was to assess the current risk of TBE in this population. Records of reportable medical events, inpatient and outpatient care, and laboratory test results were searched for TBE cases between 2006 and 2018. There were 8 individuals who met the case definition for TBE over the 13-year interval; 7 cases occurred during 2017 or 2018. Outpatient records did not identify any additional verified cases of TBE but revealed a large number of misclassified diagnoses. The risk of TBE among U.S. military service members and beneficiaries is low but may have increased in recent years. Military members and their dependents residing in Europe or Asia generally have a risk for TBE similar to that of other residents of the host nation. Additionally, there may be locations or activities that place certain individuals or units at increased risk for TBE, thus warranting additional control measures such as active surveillance, enhanced personal protective measures, and vaccination.

Epidemiology of impulse control disorders and association with dopamine agonist exposure, active component, U.S. Armed Forces, 2014-2018.

Impulse control disorders (ICDs) are a group of behavioral disorders characterized by failure to resist impulsive thoughts and behaviors that can lead to significant adverse social, legal, and financial consequences. ICDs have been associated with previous diagnoses of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder and have been widely recognized as an adverse effect of dopamine agonist (DA) therapy. The epidemiology of these disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces is unknown. The current study evaluated the incidence of ICD diagnoses in the U.S. Armed Forces during 2014-2018. The overall incidence was 13.7 per 10,000 person-years (p-yrs), with the highest rates among females and younger personnel. The current case-control study evaluated the association between DA exposure in the year preceding an incident ICD diagnosis. Although few individuals had received DA therapy in the past year, DA therapy was independently associated with incident ICD diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=2.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29-4.24, p<.0001). Previous mental health disorder diagnosis (AOR=12.0; 95% CI: 11.09-12.98, p<.0001) and fibromyalgia (AOR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.14-1.48, p<.0001) were also associated with incident ICD diagnosis. The impact of ICDs on mission readiness, medical evacuation, and deployability should be further evaluated.