Broadening not strengthening of the Agulhas Current since the early 1990s.

Western boundary currents-such as the Agulhas Current in the Indian Ocean-carry heat poleward, moderating Earth's climate and fuelling the mid-latitude storm tracks. They could exacerbate or mitigate warming and extreme weather events in the future, depending on their response to anthropogenic climate change. Climate models show an ongoing poleward expansion and intensification of the global wind systems, most robustly in the Southern Hemisphere, and linear dynamical theory suggests that western boundary currents will intensify and shift poleward as a result. Observational evidence of such changes comes from accelerated warming and air-sea heat flux rates within all western boundary currents, which are two or three times faster than global mean rates. Here we show that, despite these expectations, the Agulhas Current has not intensified since the early 1990s. Instead, we find that it has broadened as a result of more eddy activity. Recent analyses of other western boundary currents-the Kuroshio and East Australia currents-hint at similar trends. These results indicate that intensifying winds may be increasing the eddy kinetic energy of boundary currents, rather than their mean flow. This could act to decrease poleward heat transport and increase cross-frontal exchange of nutrients and pollutants between the coastal ocean and the deep ocean. Sustained in situ measurements are needed to properly understand the role of these current systems in a changing climate.

On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate.

The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.

Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5 degrees N.

The vigor of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is thought to be vulnerable to global warming, but its short-term temporal variability is unknown so changes inferred from sparse observations on the decadal time scale of recent climate change are uncertain. We combine continuous measurements of the MOC (beginning in 2004) using the purposefully designed transatlantic Rapid Climate Change array of moored instruments deployed along 26.5 degrees N, with time series of Gulf Stream transport and surface-layer Ekman transport to quantify its intra-annual variability. The year-long average overturning is 18.7 +/- 5.6 sverdrups (Sv) (range: 4.0 to 34.9 Sv, where 1 Sv = a flow of ocean water of 10(6) cubic meters per second). Interannual changes in the overturning can be monitored with a resolution of 1.5 Sv.

Observed flow compensation associated with the MOC at 26.5 degrees N in the Atlantic.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which provides one-quarter of the global meridional heat transport, is composed of a number of separate flow components. How changes in the strength of each of those components may affect that of the others has been unclear because of a lack of adequate data. We continuously observed the MOC at 26.5 degrees N for 1 year using end-point measurements of density, bottom pressure, and ocean currents; cable measurements across the Straits of Florida; and wind stress. The different transport components largely compensate for each other, thus confirming the validity of our monitoring approach. The MOC varied over the period of observation by +/-5.7 x 10(6) cubic meters per second, with density-inferred and wind-driven transports contributing equally to it. We find evidence for depth-independent compensation for the wind-driven surface flow.