Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness.

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.

Tracking habitat or testing its suitability? Similar distributional patterns can hide very different histories of persistence versus nonequilibrium dynamics.

The expansions and contractions of a species' range in response to temporal changes in selective filters leave genetic signatures that can inform a more accurate reconstruction of their evolutionary history across the landscape. After a long period of continental decline, Australian rainforests settled into localized patterns of contraction or expansion during the climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary. The environmental impacts of recurring glacial and interglacial periods also intensified the arrival of new lineages from the Sunda shelf, and it can be expected that immigrant versus locally persistent taxa responded to environmental challenges in quantifiably different manner. To investigate how such differences impact on species' distribution, we contrast landscape genomic patterns and changes in habitat availability between a species with a long continental history on Doryphora sassafras and a Sunda-derived species (Toona ciliata), across a distributional overlap. Extensive landscape-level homogeneity across chloroplast and nuclear genomes for the Sunda-derived T. ciliata, characterize the genetic signature of a very recent invasion and a rapid southern "exploratory" expansion that had not been previously recorded in the Australian flora (i.e., of Gondwanan origin or Sahul-derived). In contrast, D. sassafras is consistent with other Sahul-derived species characterized by strong geographical divergence and regional differentiation. Interestingly, our findings suggest that admixture between genetically divergent populations during expansion events might be a contributing factor to the successful colonization of novel habitats. Overall, this study identifies some of the mechanisms regulating the rearrangements in species distributions and assemblage composition that follow major environmental shifts, and reminds us how a species' current range might not necessarily define species' habitat preference, with the consequence that estimates of past or future range might not always be reliable.

Land use planning to support climate change adaptation in threatened plant communities.

Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change. This research was focused on a local government area in New South Wales, Australia, that is undergoing significant residential, commercial and agricultural expansion resulting in the transition of native forest to other more intensive land-uses. Our results indicate that the key drivers of change from native vegetation to urban and agriculture classes were population density and the proximity to urban areas. We found two of the most cleared vegetation community types are physically restricted to land owned or managed by council, suggesting their long-term ecological viability is uncertain under a warming climate. We propose that land use planning decisions must recognize the compounding spatial and temporal pressures of urban development, land clearing and climate change, and how current policy responses, such as biodiversity offsetting, can respond positively to habitat shifts in order to secure the longevity of important ecological communities.

Hydraulic failure and tree size linked with canopy die-back in eucalypt forest during extreme drought.

Eastern Australia was subject to its hottest and driest year on record in 2019. This extreme drought resulted in massive canopy die-back in eucalypt forests. The role of hydraulic failure and tree size on canopy die-back in three eucalypt tree species during this drought was examined. We measured pre-dawn and midday leaf water potential (Ψleaf ), per cent loss of stem hydraulic conductivity and quantified hydraulic vulnerability to drought-induced xylem embolism. Tree size and tree health was also surveyed. Trees with most, or all, of their foliage dead exhibited high rates of native embolism (78-100%). This is in contrast to trees with partial canopy die-back (30-70% canopy die-back: 72-78% native embolism), or relatively healthy trees (little evidence of canopy die-back: 25-31% native embolism). Midday Ψleaf was significantly more negative in trees exhibiting partial canopy die-back (-2.7 to -6.3 MPa), compared with relatively healthy trees (-2.1 to -4.5 MPa). In two of the species the majority of individuals showing complete canopy die-back were in the small size classes. Our results indicate that hydraulic failure is strongly associated with canopy die-back during drought in eucalypt forests. Our study provides valuable field data to help constrain models predicting mortality risk.

Conservation prioritization can resolve the flagship species conundrum.

Conservation strategies based on charismatic flagship species, such as tigers, lions, and elephants, successfully attract funding from individuals and corporate donors. However, critics of this species-focused approach argue it wastes resources and often does not benefit broader biodiversity. If true, then the best way of raising conservation funds excludes the best way of spending it. Here we show that this conundrum can be resolved, and that the flagship species approach does not impede cost-effective conservation. Through a tailored prioritization approach, we identify places containing flagship species while also maximizing global biodiversity representation (based on 19,616 terrestrial and freshwater species). We then compare these results to scenarios that only maximized biodiversity representation, and demonstrate that our flagship-based approach achieves 79-89% of our objective. This provides strong evidence that prudently selected flagships can both raise funds for conservation and help target where these resources are best spent to conserve biodiversity.

Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia.

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia's horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960-1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia's horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.

Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.

Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.

Author Correction: Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment.

Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability - exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species, we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low, medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however, where, under the warm/dry scenario for 2070, including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species, Eulamprus leuraensis and E. kosciuskoi, were consistently ranked the most vulnerable, primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat, narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study, the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution, however, that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.

Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.

Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Qfly), is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia's horticultural industry, and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs, phytosanitary measures, and management strategies. We used Maxent, a species distribution model, to map suitable habitat for Qfly under current climate, and six climate scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Our results highlight that south-western Australia, northern regions of the Northern Territory, eastern Queensland, and much of south-eastern Australia are currently suitable for Qfly. This includes southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, which are currently free of breeding populations. There is substantial agreement across future climate scenarios that most areas currently suitable will remain so until at least 2070. Our projections provide an initial estimate of the potential exposure of Australia's horticultural industry to Qfly as climate changes, highlighting the need for long-term vigilance across southern Australia to prevent further range expansion of this species.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami.

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.

Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species?

BACKGROUND: Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles, prevent soil and water erosion, provide forage for livestock, and are a source of food, wood and non-wood products. However, despite their ecological and societal importance, the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics, and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM), Maxent. METHODS: This study assessed variation in predictions of environmental suitability for 29 Australian shrub species (representing dominant members of six shrubland classes) due to the use of alternative sets of predictor variables. Models were calibrated with (1) climate variables only, (2) climate and soil variables, and (3) soil variables only. RESULTS: The predictive power of SDMs differed substantially across species, but generally models calibrated with both climate and soil data performed better than those calibrated only with climate variables. Models calibrated solely with soil variables were the least accurate. We found regional differences in potential shrub species richness across Australia due to the use of different sets of variables. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that predicted patterns of species richness may be sensitive to the choice of predictor set when multiple, plausible alternatives exist, and demonstrates the importance of considering soil properties when modeling availability of habitat for plants.

Cunningham's skinks show low genetic connectivity and signatures of divergent selection across its distribution.

Establishing corridors of connecting habitat has become a mainstay conservation strategy to maintain gene flow and facilitate climate-driven range shifts. Yet, little attention has been given to ascertaining the extent to which corridors will benefit philopatric species, which might exhibit localized adaptation. Measures of genetic connectivity and adaptive genetic variation across species' ranges can help fill this knowledge gap. Here, we characterized the spatial genetic structure of Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami), a philopatric species distributed along Australia's Great Dividing Range, and assessed evidence of localized adaptation. Analysis of 4,274 SNPs from 94 individuals sampled at four localities spanning 500 km and 4° of latitude revealed strong genetic structuring at neutral loci (mean FST ± SD = 0.603 ± 0.237) among the localities. Putatively neutral SNPs and those under divergent selection yielded contrasting spatial patterns, with the latter identifying two genetically distinct clusters. Given low genetic connectivity of the four localities, we suggest that the natural movement rate of this species is insufficient to keep pace with spatial shifts to its climate envelope, irrespective of habitat availability. In addition, our finding of localized adaptation highlights the risk of outbreeding depression should the translocation of individuals be adopted as a conservation management strategy.

MOLECULAR DETECTION OF ANTIBIOTIC-RESISTANCE DETERMINANTS IN ESCHERICHIA COLI ISOLATED FROM THE ENDANGERED AUSTRALIAN SEA LION (NEOPHOCA CINEREA).

Greater interaction between humans and wildlife populations poses significant risks of anthropogenic impact to natural ecosystems, especially in the marine environment. Understanding the spread of microorganisms at the marine interface is therefore important if we are to mitigate adverse effects on marine wildlife. We investigated the establishment of Escherichia coli in the endangered Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) by comparing fecal isolation from wild and captive sea lion populations. Fecal samples were collected from wild colonies March 2009-September 2010 and from captive individuals March 2011-May 2013. Using molecular screening, we assigned a phylotype to E. coli isolates and determined the presence of integrons, mobile genetic elements that capture gene cassettes conferring resistance to antimicrobial agents common in fecal coliforms. Group B2 was the most abundant phylotype in all E. coli isolates (n = 37), with groups A, B1, and D also identified. Integrons were not observed in E. coli (n = 21) isolated from wild sea lions, but were identified in E. coli from captive animals (n = 16), from which class I integrases were detected in eight isolates. Sequencing of gene cassette arrays identified genes conferring resistance to streptomycin-spectinomycin (aadA1) and trimethoprim (dfrA17, dfrB4). Class II integrases were not detected in the E. coli isolates. The frequent detection in captive sea lions of E. coli with resistance genes commonly identified in human clinical cases suggests that conditions experienced in captivity may contribute to establishment. Identification of antibiotic resistance in the microbiota of Australian sea lions provides crucial information for disease management. Our data will inform conservation management strategies and provide a mechanism to monitor microorganism dissemination to sensitive pinniped populations.

Giardia duodenalis and Cryptosporidium occurrence in Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) exposed to varied levels of human interaction.

Giardia and Cryptosporidium are amongst the most common protozoan parasites identified as causing enteric disease in pinnipeds. A number of Giardia assemblages and Cryptosporidium species and genotypes are common in humans and terrestrial mammals and have also been identified in marine mammals. To investigate the occurrence of these parasites in an endangered marine mammal, the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea), genomic DNA was extracted from faecal samples collected from wild populations (n = 271) in Southern and Western Australia and three Australian captive populations (n = 19). These were screened using PCR targeting the 18S rRNA of Giardia and Cryptosporidium. Giardia duodenalis was detected in 28 wild sea lions and in seven captive individuals. Successful sequencing of the 18S rRNA gene assigned 27 Giardia isolates to assemblage B and one to assemblage A, both assemblages commonly found in humans. Subsequent screening at the gdh and ß-giardin loci resulted in amplification of only one of the 35 18S rRNA positive samples at the ß-giardin locus. Sequencing at the ß-giardin locus assigned the assemblage B 18S rRNA confirmed isolate to assemblage AI. The geographic distribution of sea lion populations sampled in relation to human settlements indicated that Giardia presence in sea lions was highest in populations less than 25 km from humans. Cryptosporidium was not detected by PCR screening in either wild colonies or captive sea lion populations. These data suggest that the presence of G. duodenalis in the endangered Australian sea lion is likely the result of dispersal from human sources. Multilocus molecular analyses are essential for the determination of G. duodenalis assemblages and subsequent inferences on transmission routes to endangered marine mammal populations.

Continental scale analysis of bird migration timing: influences of climate and life history traits-a generalized mixture model clustering and discriminant approach.

There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex relationships between phenological trends, climate indices and species traits. Using 145 datasets for 52 bird species, we assess trends in first arrival date (FAD), last departure date (LDD) and timing of peak abundance at multiple Australian locations. Strong seasonal patterns were found, i.e. spring phenological events were more likely to significantly advance, while significant advances and delays occurred in other seasons. However, across all significant trends, the magnitude of delays exceeded that of advances, particularly for FAD (+22.3 and -9.6 days/decade, respectively). Geographic variations were found, with greater advances in FAD and LDD, in south-eastern Australia than in the north and west. We identified four species clusters that differed with respect to species traits and climate drivers. Species within bird clusters responded in similar ways to local climate variables, particularly the number of raindays and rainfall. The strength of phenological trends was more strongly related to local climate variables than to broad-scale drivers (Southern Oscillation Index), highlighting the importance of precipitation as a driver of movement in Australian birds.

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.

Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA) is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st) century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions.

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961-1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961-1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.