Complications and mortality in older surgical patients in Australia and New Zealand (the REASON study): a multicentre, prospective, observational study.

We conducted a prospective study of non-cardiac surgical patients aged 70 years or more in 23 hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. We studied 4158 consecutive patients of whom 2845 (68%) had pre-existing comorbidities. By day 30, 216 (5%) patients had died, and 835 (20%) suffered complications; 390 (9.4%) patients were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. Pre-operative factors associated with mortality included: increasing age (80-89 years: OR 2.1 (95% CI 1.6-2.8), p < 0.001; 90+ years: OR 4.0 (95% CI 2.6-6.2), p < 0.001); worsening ASA physical status (ASA 3: OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.8-5.5), p < 0.001; ASA 4: OR 12.4 (95% CI 6.9-22.2), p < 0.001); a pre-operative plasma albumin < 30 g.l⁻¹ (OR: 2.5 (95% CI 1.8-3.5), p < 0.001); and non-scheduled surgery (OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), p < 0.001). Complications associated with mortality included: acute renal impairment (OR 3.3 (95% CI 2.1-5.0), p < 0.001); unplanned Intensive Care Unit admission (OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.9-4.9), p < 0.001); and systemic inflammation (OR 2.5 (95% CI 1.7-3.7), p < 0.001). Patient factors often had a stronger association with mortality than the type of surgery. Strategies are needed to reduce complications and mortality in older surgical patients.

Perioperative mortality risk score using pre- and postoperative risk factors in older patients.

We developed a risk score for 30-day postoperative mortality: the Perioperative Mortality risk score. We used a derivation cohort from a previous study of surgical patients aged 70 years or more at three large metropolitan teaching hospitals, using the significant risk factors for 30-day mortality from multivariate analysis. We summed the risk score for each of six factors creating an overall Perioperative Mortality score. We included 1012 patients and the 30-day mortality was 6%. The three preoperative factors and risk scores were ("three A's"): 1) age, years: 70 to 79 = 1, 80 to 89 = 3, 90+ = 6; 2) ASA physical status: ASA I or II = 0, ASA III = 3, ASA IV = 6, ASA V = 15; and 3) preoperative albumin < 30 g/l = 2.5. The three postoperative factors and risk scores were ("three I's") 1) unplanned intensive care unit admission = 4.0; 2) systemic inflammation = 3; and 3) acute renal impairment = 2.5. Scores and mortality were: < 5 = 1%, 5 to 9.5 = 7% and > or = 10 = 26%. We also used a preliminary validation cohort of 256 patients from a regional hospital. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C-statistic) for the derivation cohort was 0.80 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.86) similar to the validation C-statistic: 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88), P = 0.88. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.35) indicated good calibration in the validation cohort. The Perioperative Mortality score is straightforward and may assist progressive risk assessment and management during the perioperative period. Risk associated with surgical complexity and urgency could be added to this baseline patient factor Perioperative Mortality score.

A curious gunshot injury.

The case of a victim of an unusual gunshot injury is described. The man had been 'knee-capped' and on arrival at hospital was found to have two bullets and a cartridge casing in the knee joint. These had entered through one entrance wound. A ballistic report describes how the incident occurred.